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The New England Patriots will host the Houston Texans at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, with two of the NFL's best defenses going head-to-head. Houston has the No. 1 scoring defense (16.7 points per game allowed) with New England third at 17.9. Neither team allowed a touchdown last week, and the sportsbooks certainly know this, which has driven down the offensive totals in NFL prop betting on Patriots vs. Texans as well. Due to that, the SportsLine projection model is finding value in several Overs for Texans vs. Patriots NFL player props. The model is backing Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud to go Over 214.5 passing yards, and a pair of Patriots, with running back TreVeyon Henderson going Over 38.5 rushing yards and Kayshon Boutte going Over 31.5 receiving yards.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the NFL Divisional Round on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Top three Patriots vs. Texans props at DraftKings on Sunday (odds subject to change): 

  • C.J. Stroud, Texans, Over 214.5 passing yards (-113)
  • TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots, Over 38.5 rushing yards (-108) 
  • Kayshon Boutte, Patriots, Over 31.5 receiving yards (-115)

Combining the model's three Texans vs. Patriots prop picks into an NFL parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +525 (risk $100 to win $525).

C.J. Stroud, Texans, Over 214.5 passing yards (-113)

There is no denying Stroud had some rough moments over Wild Card Weekend against the Steelers, with five interceptions (two lost) and an interception inside the red zone. However, he still finished with 250 passing yards, and some of his biggest passing plays came after Nico Collins left with a concussion. Veteran Christian Kirk became the reliable option with eight receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown. Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, has gone Over this total in four of his last seven games, including last week, and he also has in four of his five career playoff games. The Patriots' defense is a tough challenge, but the model still projects Stroud for 219 yards to finish Over this total.

TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots, Over 38.5 rushing yards (-108) 

Although Rhamondre Stevenson played 14 more snaps than Henderson last week, the veteran running back had only one more carry than the rookie. After a slower start to his rookie campaign, Henderson has seemed to build the trust of his coaches as the season progressed. He rushed for just 27 yards on nine carries last week, but Henderson went Over this total in nine of his final 10 games of the season. Henderson is viewed as the more explosive runner between the two, and that big-play ability can help him reach this total. The model projects 46 rushing yards for Henderson, who was New England's leading rusher in eight of its final 10 games of the regular season.

Kayshon Boutte, Patriots, Over 31.5 receiving yards (-115)

Boutte led all Patriots wide receivers with 66 receiving yards last week against the Chargers, highlighted by a 42-yard catch to go Over this total on one play. He secured all four of his targets, as his four receptions were a team-high last week. Boutte was third on the team with 551 receiving yards during the regular season, averaging 39.4 receiving yards per game. The model expects him to be a featured part of the game plan again this week, projecting Boutte for 37 yards on Sunday to go Over this total.