Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
We're getting our first Thursday night game of December tonight, and things are starting off with a bang as the Lions will be hosting the Packers in an NFC North showdown. This is the old "Thanksgiving leftovers" game where the NFL takes two teams that played on Thanksgiving and has them play each other the following Thursday.
Speaking of Thanksgiving leftovers, it's a good time to finish yours before they go bad. I learned the hard way last year that green bean casserole does NOT have a long shelf life.
Anyway, we'll be handing out picks and best bets for tonight's game, plus we'll be taking a look at who's leading the MVP race and we'll also be breaking down all the playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 14.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the grocery store. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Packers at Lions
This is a huge game for both teams, but especially for Green Bay (9-3). If the Packers want to have any shot of winning the NFC North, then they're going to have to pull off the upset tonight in Detroit in a game where they're a 3.5-point underdog to the Lions.
Both teams will be missing several key players tonight. On Detroit's end, they won't have D.J. Reader (shoulder) or their starting left tackle, Taylor Decker (knee), who's missing his second straight game. As for the Packers, they won't have Romeo Doubs (concussion) or Jaire Alexander (knee).
With that in mind, here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident about a possible win:
- Why the Packers can win: If the Packers are going to pull off the upset tonight, they're probably going to need a huge game from Jordan Love. The Lions are surrendering 226.8 passing yards per game this year, which is the eighth-worst number in the NFL, so it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Love have a big game. That being said, the Packers need to make sure to get Josh Jacobs involved because the last thing Green Bay needs to be doing is throwing on every down. The Packers are 0-3 this year when Love attempts 34 or more passes, so a balanced offense with Love completing a high-percentage of his passes would be best for Green Bay (The Packers are 5-0 this season when he completes at least 60% of his passes).
- Why the Lions can win: The reason the Lions can win is because they have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL and it's hard for anyone to keep up with them. The Lions are averaging 31.9 points per game and if they get anywhere near that number, Detroit will likely win. The Packers have the second-fewest sacks in the NFL heading into Week 14 and if they can't get any pressure on Jared Goff, the Lions QB is likely going to torch their secondary.
The Lions won their first meeting with the Packers 24-14 in a game where Detroit jumped out to a 24-3 lead before coasting to a win.
You can get a full preview of the game from Cody Benjamin by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Jordan Love OVER 250.5 passing yards (-120 at BetMGM): Jordan Love didn't look great to start the season, but he's really come on over the past four weeks. During that period, the Packers have gone 3-1 and he's thrown for at least 260 yards in three of those four games. Love threw for 273 yard in his first meeting with the Lions back on Nov. 3, and I could see him putting up a similar number tonight.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Brandon McManus OVER 6.5 points (-110 at BetMGM): McManus has gone over this number in each of the past two weeks, and with the way the Packers offense is playing right now, I won't be surprised if he blows by it again this week. Also, the Lions have the second-best red-zone defense in the NFL this year, which means we could see a situation where the Packers are settling for field goals tonight, which would be good news for everyone who bets McManus' over.
And in case you're wondering, my props are now 32-25 on the season (15-12 on kicker props and 17-13 on all other props).
Anyway, we also have a full Packers-Lions betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.
And finally, here are our picks for the game.
PICKS FOR 'TNF'
Cody's pick: Lions 27-26 over Packers
Prisco's pick: Lions 35-33 over Packers
My pick: Lions 27-24 over Packers
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here.
2. MVP watch: Lamar Jackson takes a tumble
Between now and the end of the season, we'll be taking a weekly look at the MVP race each week and we'll be doing that by holding our own straw poll here at CBS Sports.
What this means is that we rounded up 13 of our NFL writers and had them vote on who they think will win the MVP. In our first poll from last week, Josh Allen was on top with Lamar Jackson nipping at his heels, but after losing to the Eagles in Week 13, Jackson has fallen out of second place.
With that in mind, here's a look at our top five heading into Week 14 along with each player's point total. (A player got five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on.)
1. Bills QB Josh Allen (61 points)
2. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (46 points)
3. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (37 points)
4. Lions QB Jared Goff (25 points)
5. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (7 points)
As you can see, Allen is currently running away with the award, but don't count out Barkley. He received three out of 13 first-place votes in our poll and he has a favorable schedule down the stretch that will see the Eagles play four of the six worst rushing defenses in the NFL. If Barkley hits the 2,000-yard mark, he'll definitely be in the conversation, and if he breaks Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record of 2,105, I think that might be enough to put him over the top. No running back has won the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012.
Overall, a total of 10 players received at least one vote. If you want to see a full list of every player who got a vote, then be sure to click here.
3. Trevor Lawrence update: Jaguars QB out for season, Tom Brady proposes drastic rule change
Everyone has a take on the Trevor Lawerence hit and that includes Tom Brady, who had one of the most interesting takes of anyone. Before we get to that, though, let's take a look at the latest news involving the Jaguars quarterback:
- Lawrence's season is over. The Jaguars placed Lawrence on injured reserve this week, which means he has to miss at least the next four games. Although he would be eligible to return in Week 18, that won't be happening because the Jags QB is planning to have surgery on his left shoulder, which he originally injured earlier this season (You can read more about Lawrence here).
- NFL upholds Texans LB Azeez Al-Shaair's suspension. The Texans linebacker appealed his suspension, but it was all for nothing. After a hearing on Wednesday, the NFL decided to uphold Al-Shaair's three-game suspension, which means he'll be missing games against the Dolphins, Chiefs and Ravens. Al-Shaair's response to the NFL's decision came in a tweet, "IF YOU WANT ME TO BE YOUR VILLAIN, ILL BE YOUR VILLAIN! SEE YOU SOON." You can check out his tweet here.
As for Brady, he did an interview with Colin Cowherd this week and the seven-time Super Bowl winner said the opposite of what you might have expected him to say about the hit on Lawrence. You'd think that Brady might defend a fellow quarterback, but instead, he seemed to side with Al-Shaair.
- Brady emphasizes with defensive players. "When [a quarterback runs], you put yourself in a lot of danger, and when you do that, I don't think the onus of protecting an offensive quarterback who's running should be on a defensive player. I don't think that's really fair to a defense." Brady thinks that defensive players are already in a tough situation and something like letting up just before hitting a QB who's about to slide only makes their job more difficult.
- Defensive players shouldn't be punished for being aggressive. Brady doesn't want to see defensive players punished for playing aggressive football. "Nobody wants to see anybody get hurt, but it is also the reality of a very physical sport that we play," Brady said. "Defensive players have to be aggressive, that's their nature. I always tried to be aggressive on offense, we try to block aggressively, and at the same time, the defense tries to tackle aggressively."
- Brady proposes a new rule. If the NFL wants to deter big hits on the quarterback, Brady suggests punishing the quarterback. "Maybe they fine or penalize a quarterback for sliding late and say, 'Look, if we don't want these hits to take place, we've got to penalize the offense and the defense rather than just penalize the defensive player for every single play that happens when there's a hit on the quarterback,'" Brady said. Penalizing the offense would be a drastic rule change if the NFL ever implemented it.
If you want to check out Brady's full comments, you can do that here.
4. NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 14: Three teams can clinch a postseason spot
There are 14 playoff spots in the NFL and as we get ready to head into Week 14, only two of them have been clinched. However, that could change this week, and that's because there are a total of three teams that could end up punching their ticket to the postseason this week: the Eagles, Lions and Vikings.
All three teams have multiple scenarios where they can get in, but we're just going to take a look at the simplest one for each team.
LIONS (11-1)
Easiest path: Beat Green Bay. If the Lions beat the Packers tonight (or tie them), they will clinch a playoff spot.
EAGLES (10-2)
Easiest path: The Eagles don't technically have an "easiest path," but I'd say the one most likely to happen is the Eagles beat Panthers combined with Atlanta losing to Minnesota combined with Arizona losing to Seattle combined with the Rams losing to Buffalo.
VIKINGS (10-2)
Easiest path: There's only one scenario for the Vikings that doesn't involve at least one game ending in a tie, so we're going to go ahead and say that's the "easiest path." A Vikings win over Atlanta combined with a Cardinals loss to the Seahawks combined with a Rams loss to the Bills would put Minnesota in.
Basically, if the Cardinals and Rams both lose, then Minnesota and Philadelphia will both clinch a playoff spot with a win. The Chiefs, who have already clinched a playoff spot, can clinch the AFC West title with a win over the Chargers on Sunday night.
If you want to check out all 25 clinching scenarios that are in play during Week 14, you can do that here.
5. NFL relaxes drug and PED policy for players
Players around the NFL got some good news on Wednesday night with the NFL and NFLPA agreeing to make several changes to the league's drug and PED policies, and the key part here is that almost all of the changes are player-friendly.
Here's what you need to know:
- THC threshold goes up. Under the old policy, a player failed a drug test if he had 150 nanograms-per-milliliter of THC in his system, but that threshold has now been bumped up to 350, which more than doubles old number. Also, if a player fails a test, his team will no longer be told which substance caused the failed test.
- Fines reduced for players who test positive. Under the old policy, a player was fined half a game check for his first violation and a full game check for a second violation. Under the new policy, a player will be fined just $15,000 for a first violation and $20,000 for a second violation. Under the old policy, someone who has a high base salary could lose a substantial amount of money to a fine while someone making the league minimum wouldn't be hit very hard. The new policy punishes everyone equally for their first two violations.
- Biggest change to the PED policy. Under the old policy, if a player tested positive for performance-enhancing substances, then he wasn't allowed to be reinstated until he recorded a negative test. Under the new policy, a player can be reinstated if the substances provide "no performance enhancing effect."
Players have also been banned from sharing their drug test notifications on social media. Any player who breaks the ban could be fined up to $15,000.
CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones broke the news on these changes, and you can read his full story on the situation here.
6. Extra points: Ravens suspend Diontae Johnson
It's been a busy week in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Diontae Johnson hit with one-game suspension. The Ravens' decision to trade for Diontae Johnson isn't exactly paying off so far. Since the Oct. 29 trade, Johnson only has one reception and to make things worse, he was suspended for one game by the Ravens for conduct detrimental to the team. Apparently, Johnson refused to enter the game when the Ravens were playing the Eagles on Sunday. You can read more about this crazy situation here.
- Bengals getting a new kicker. The Bengals have placed Evan McPherson on injured reserve, which means he'll be missing at least their next four games. With McPherson out, the Bengals will be turning to former Browns kicker Cade York for their Monday night game against the Cowboys.
- Giants sticking with Drew Lock in Week 14. For the second straight week, Lock will be the starting QB for the Giants. Lock got his first start of the year on Thanksgiving when he threw for just 178 yards in a loss to the Cowboys. This week, he'll get to face a Saints that has held its last three opponents to just 17.3 points per game.
- Chiefs stick with their new kicker. The Chiefs have used three kickers over the past four games, but they won't be making a change this week. Matthew Wright kicked in Week 13 and he'll be returning in Week 14. Harrison Butker started the season as the kicker, but he's now on injured reserve. He was replaced by Spencer Shrader, who kicked in two games for Kansas City, but he was placed on IR this week, which means it will likely be Wright's job until Butker gets back.
