Prisco's NFL Championship Sunday picks: Jarrett Stidham does enough for Broncos, Seahawks lean on defense
Pete Prisco reveals his Championship Sunday picks, as the two No. 1 seeds punch their ticket to the Super Bowl
We've known a lot of playoff chokers over the years, guys who curled up in the fetal position in the big moments.
Consider me curled up.
I am choking when it comes to my NFL picks.
The past two weeks have been a bloodbath for me, the worst playoffs of my career. And it's not close.
How bad? How does 1-9 against the spread hit you? Even straight up, I am 5-5 the past two weeks. I went 1-3 against the spread last week -- New England was the only winner -- and 3-1 straight up.
My playoffs have been so bad that there is a chance I might not finish above .500 for the year ATS. That would be awful considering the run I was on at one point.
What a collapse.
My season ATS record is now 141-138-3, so barring an "oh-fer" in the title games and the Super Bowl, I will make it. My straight-up record is now 181-100-1.
Anybody out there good at the Heimlich Maneuver? I seem to be choking in a big way.
Championship Sunday NFL betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+5.5)
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
With Bo Nix out with a broken ankle, the Broncos will turn to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback in this one. He hasn't thrown a regular-season pass since 2023, but Broncos coach Sean Payton believes in him. And when he does, he usually lets the quarterback play loose.
The New England defense can be stingy, especially against the run, which can put more pressure on Payton to scheme up things to make it easier for Stidham. I think Payton is one of the best play callers in the league, so I think he will.
On the other side, Drake Maye will be making his first road playoff start for the Patriots. That can be daunting, especially against a good Denver defense. But Maye has been good on the road this season. Then again, this is the playoffs.
The Bills ran on the Broncos last week, so I expect the Patriots to try to do the same. New England is averaging 156.1 rushing yards per game over the last seven games, but I think Denver will be better this time against the run.
It would be easy to pick the Pats here based on Stidham playing. But I think the Denver players will elevate their games around him and Payton will have a big day calling the game for him. I think Denver's defense will get the best of the Pats offense. Denver goes to the Super Bowl.
Pick: Broncos 23, Patriots 21
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
These two split the season series in two really close games, with one point separating the two teams in the combined scores. The Seahawks rallied to win the last meeting in Seattle in Week 16 in overtime, which is why this game is at home.
The Rams are playing a third straight road game, which is brutal, but teams have overcome that in the past in the playoffs. If any coach can get his team right for that, it's Rams coach Sean McVay.
The Rams struggled some on offense last week in their victory over the Bears. This Seattle defense is much better than that Bears group. But Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has had success against them in the two games.
The Seattle defense is the best unit of any left in the playoffs, which will challenge McVay to come up with new ways to move the football. The Rams lack great outside speed, and that showed up last week at Chicago. Keep an eye on that in this one.
On the other side, the Rams defense has had some leakage issues in the secondary over the past six weeks. It is not a great group. The good news is Seattle wants to run it more than throw it.
Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold is the key. If he can take care of the football, which he didn't do in a playoff loss to the Rams last year when he was with the Vikings, the Seahawks will win the game. I think he does.
The Seattle defense is playing too good right now. That defensive front will disrupt the night for Stafford as the Seahawks get to the Super Bowl behind that defense.
Pick: Seahawks 23, Rams 17
