Happy midweek, everyone! John Breech is placing all kinds of last-minute Christmas orders for Joe Burrow apparel, so today's Pick Six newsletter is brought to you by Cody Benjamin, with tidbits on all the latest from around the NFL.
Be sure to subscribe right here, to ensure you never miss a daily dose of NFL updates. And keep on reading for the latest on several major quarterback moves to Pete Prisco's Week 16 predictions:
1. QB changes: Falcons, Browns, Titans bench vets
The winds of change are blowing strong at the quarterback position, where several big names have been demoted ahead of Week 16, including a certain $180 million man in Flowery Branch:
- Falcons bench Kirk Cousins for Michael Penix Jr.: The prized addition of Atlanta's offseason, Cousins has thrown just one touchdown to nine interceptions over the last five games.
- Titans demote Will Levis: The second-year signal-caller threw three interceptions in Tennessee's Week 15 loss, giving way to backup Mason Rudolph.
- Browns turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson: The second-year backup will take over for Jameis Winston, who went 2-5 replacing the injured Deshaun Watson.
2. Kirk Cousins landing spots: What's next for QB?
With Penix set to captain Atlanta "moving forward," Cousins may have already played his last down for the Falcons. The team can get out of his $180 million deal after 2024 without any negative impact to the 2025 salary cap by designating him a post-June 1 release. So where could the veteran be headed next, barring a heroic and improbable return to lineup in his current home? We identified some potential suitors:
- Cleveland Browns: Coach Kevin Stefanski was the Vikings offensive coordinator during Cousins' first two years in Minnesota. He needs stability like no under, with polarizing starter Deshaun Watson saddled to ACL rehab with an uncertain long-term future.
- Indianapolis Colts: Can they possibly enter 2025, Year 3 of the Shane Steichen era, with the ultra-athletic but ultra-unreliable Anthony Richardson as the unquestioned starter? With plenty of cap room in a winnable division, would it hurt to lure Cousins as Russell Wilson-esque camp competition?
- New Orleans Saints: Current starter Derek Carr is all but a lock to exit. It seems implausible the Saints would then pivot to another aging, ailing placeholder, but they've also had an issue with committing to a rebuild. Worse yet, they may or may not be in striking distance of a top prospect in the draft.
3. Prisco's Picks: Ravens edge Steelers in rematch
Pete Prisco is red hot for the holidays, fresh off a 13-3 run on Week 15 straight-up picks, plus an 11-5 mark in against-the-spread bets. Now he's back with predictions for every single Week 16 contest. Here are some of his most notable projections:
- Chiefs 23, Texans 17: Patrick Mahomes is hobbled with a high ankle sprain, but he could play. If he does, it makes things a lot easier for the Chiefs. But I think they win this game whether he plays or not. If it's Carson Wentz, the defense wins it. The Texans just haven't been great this season. Chiefs get it.
- Ravens 27, Steelers 20: This is an enormous game in the AFC North. The Ravens lost to the Steelers earlier this year, but this time they get even. Lamar Jackson won't be limited here. He will get the best of the Steelers defense as the Ravens make the division a race.
- 49ers 26, Dolphins 23: This is a long trip for the 49ers as they come off a disappointing home loss to the Rams. That was last Thursday, so they do get some added rest. The Dolphins are coming off a loss to the Texans. Tua Tagovailoa didn't play well and I think the 49ers defense will limit him again.
4. Injury tracker: Mahomes, O'Connell pushing to play
Here's the latest on some big names fighting through injuries ahead of Week 16:
- Patrick Mahomes practices despite high ankle sprain: The Chiefs star seems intent on suiting up against the Texans, despite limping off the field in Kansas City's Week 15 victory.
- Raiders could have Aidan O'Connell back: The second-year quarterback is "trending upward" to play the Jacksonville Jaguars after missing Week 15 with a bone bruise in his knee.
- Derek Carr unlikely to return this season: The Saints' banged-up signal-caller is nursing a fractured hand, leaving rookie Spencer Rattler as the top candidate to close the year under center.
5. Flex schedule: NFL makes major Week 17 shifts
We're on Week 16, but the league has already made some big adjustments to the following week's schedule, finalizing plans for a Saturday tripleheader and a new "Sunday Night Football" matchup:
- Saturday, Dec. 28: The following three games will be broadcast on NFL Network: Chargers at Patriots (1 p.m. ET), Broncos at Bengals (4:30 p.m. ET), Cardinals at Rams (8:15 p.m. ET)
- Sunday, Dec. 29: Colts at Giants will be played at 1 p.m. ET on Fox; Dolphins at Browns will be 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS; and Falcons at Commanders will be 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
6. Playoff projections: Eagles still NFC's top seed
Every week, John Breech compiles the latest SportsLine simulations to forecast the entire playoff field. Here's a look at some notable developments from the projection model:
- The Chargers (8-6) are currently in a free fall with three losses in their past four games. The good news is that the computer doesn't think they're going to suffer a total collapse. According to our projection, the Chargers have a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs. If the Chargers win two of their final three games, they'll clinch a playoff spot no matter what anyone else does.
- The biggest winner in Week 15 might have been the Eagles (12-2). Thanks to Detroit's loss, the computer is now projecting that Philadelphia will steal the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Eagles can clinch the NFC East as soon as Sunday with a win over the Commanders and they'll have a good chance of clinching the top seed if they win out.
- The Steelers (10-4) have a brutal schedule to end the season, but the computer still likes them to win the AFC North. According to our projection, the Steelers have a 73.1% chance of winning the division while Baltimore's chances are sitting at 26.9%. The Steelers could clinch the division as soon as Saturday with a win over the Ravens.
