Rams at Buccaneers -- Week 16

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla. (grass, outdoors, sunny, high around 67)

When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Spread: Buccaneers by 3

Records: Rams (6-7-1; NFC West 4-0-1); Buccaneers (6-8; NFC South 2-3)

Past results: Two most recent meetings – Oct. 24, 2010: Buccaneers 18, Rams 17; Sept. 23, 2007: Buccaneers 24, Rams 3. Series record: Rams lead 9-8.

What matters: Barring a miracle, the Rams will miss the playoffs for the eighth straight year, the NFL’s fourth-longest current drought. But the Rams still have a lot to play for. Among other things, they can finish above .500 for the first time since the 2003 NFC West title season.

“Our challenge is do we want to mope around as a result of a loss to the Vikings and be that team, or do we want to be the team that’s won three out of the last four games that’s going to go out and try to win another one,” coach Jeff Fisher said. “So, that’s the approach we’re taking.”

Who matters: QB Sam Bradford threw for a career-high 377 yards and three TDs in the 36-22 loss to the Vikings, but a lot of his production came in garbage time. He needs to start faster against a Bucs defense that ranks last against the pass (310.6) but first against the run (83.3). Bradford took some big hits last week, but the Bucs don’t rush the passer the way the Vikes do. Tampa Bay is tied for 28th with 25 sacks.

Key matchups: The Rams failed miserably against Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson last week, and now they face rookie RB Doug Martin, who’s third in the NFL with 1,647 yards from scrimmage. The Bucs will try to establish Martin after he was held to 35 total yards last week. They want to take pressure off QB Josh Freeman, whose confidence appears to be waning. He’s had a passer rating above 80 only once in the last five weeks. Rams DEs Robert Quinn (9.5 sacks) and Chris Long (7.5 sacks) and DT Michael Brockers (28 tackles, four sacks) must think run first.

Rams top CB Cortland Finnegan will see a lot of WR Vincent Jackson, who’s caught 62 balls for 1,226 yards and eight TDs. Finnegan (5-10) gives up seven inches to Jackson, and he’s been bothered by a thigh injury that kept him out of practice Wednesday and Thursday.

Injuries of note: RG Harvey Dahl was placed on IR with a torn biceps he suffered against Minnesota. Shelley Smith or Chris Williams will replace Dahl, who’s made 30 straight starts.

Finnegan (thigh) and RB Steven Jackson (illness) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, but both are fully expected to start. The same goes for C Scott Wells, who was limited in Thursday’s practice with a knee injury.

Inside stuff: The Rams missed eight tackles last week, three by S Craig Dahl. … DE William Hayes continues to be a valuable role player: he was in on eight running plays last week and made four stops, two for losses. … Bradford is the league’s seventh-most accurate passer on throws targeted at least 20 yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus.

Stats you should know: Bradford needs 259 passing yards to surpass the career high of 3,512 he set in his rookie year of 2010. … His 18 TD passes are tied with the career high he set in 2010. … St. Louis has given up 71 QB hits, ninth-most in the league, and 35 sacks, which is tied for 10th. … Freeman committed five turnovers in last week’s loss at New Orleans, Tampa’s fourth straight defeat.

Record watch: RB Steven Jackson needs 91 yards to post his eighth straight 1,000-yard rushing season. Only six other backs have accomplished that feat. … Rookie K Greg Zuerlein  has seven FGs of 50-plus yards and needs one more to tie the NFL’s single-season record, which Minnesota K Blair Walsh tied last week vs. the Rams.

Looking ahead: The Rams conclude the season at Seattle, where the Seahawks are especially dominant. They’re 6-0 at Qwest Field this year and have won their last three home games by a 116-27 score.

Prediction: Rams 23, Buccaneers 20

Get more Rams updates and analysis from Larry Hartstein on Twitter @CBSRams.