Heading into Week 14, the Seahawks were 8-3-1 and coming off a dominant 40-7 performance against the Panthers. It took three months, but they were finally starting to look like the team that went to the Super Bowl two straight years. Russell Wilson had finally recovered from an early-season ankle injury, Thomas Rawls had returned to the backfield and the defense was its usual dominating self.
Then safety Earl Thomas broke his leg against the Panthers and suddenly the Seahawks' newfound stability was thrown into upheaval. Seven days later, that manifested itself in an as-bad-as-we-can-remember effort against the Packers. When it was over, Aaron Rodgers was surgical (18 of 23, 246 yards, three touchdowns, no turnovers), Russell Wilson was not (22 of 39, 240 yards, one touchdown, five -- yes, five -- interceptions) and Seattle's defense appeared rattled following the 38-10 dismantling.
The good news: The Seahawks are still the No. 3 seed in the NFC. And according to Football Outsiders, not only do they have a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs (thanks to playing in a terrible division), but there's a 50 percent chance they earn a first-round bye.
The bad news (long-term edition): Seattle has to figure out how to compete in a post-Thomas world. It's impossible to oversell just how integral he is to the Seahawks' defensive philosophy. The Ringer's Danny Kelly wrote about this last week in a must-read piece. One of the biggest takeaways:
He's a 5-foot-10, 208-pound anthropomorphized version of Sonic the Hedgehog responsible for covering huge swaths of the field in Seattle's primarily single-high scheme, which asks Thomas to cover the ground normally assigned to two safeties. Along with Rob Gronkowski's and J.J. Watt's season-ending back injuries, you could make the argument this is one of the three highest-impact nonquarterback injuries a team will have to endure in the NFL this season.
The Gronk-Watt comparisons aren't hyperbole. In fact, you could argue that Thomas is more important to his team than either Gronkowski or Watt is to theirs. The Patriots have Martellus Bennett and Tom Brady. The Texans, somehow still in first place in the AFC South despite Brock Osweiler, have Jadeveon Clowney. The Seahawks have ... safety Steven Terrell?
For what it's worth, the Seahawks said Thomas' absence had nothing to do with Sunday's outcome.
"It wouldn't have impacted it much," Richard Sherman said, via ESPN.com. "I mean, you turn the ball over six times; he can't play both sides. So we've just got to clean things up and continue to push forward."
And Pete Carroll agreed. "It had no impact," the Seahawks coach said. "Steven Terrell didn't have a play to make all night long. The ball never even went near him."
The bigger issue, at least against Green Bay, was up front.
"We really disappointed in rushing the passer," Carroll continued. "He was back there all night long. That was very frustrating to just watch [Rodgers] have so much ease throwing and completing balls on us."
The Seahawks sacked Rodgers just once and hit him on three other occasions. The Packers quarterback finished with a 150.3 passer rating, the highest against this defense since Carroll became coach in 2010.
There's also Wilson, whose role is now more important than ever. If he plays like he did in 2015, when according to FO he ranked third in total value and value per play among all quarterbacks, he can put this team on his back, even with Thomas sidelined. If, instead, Wilson stumbles through the next month or so in much the same way he played earlier this season (when, admittedly, he was hobbled by an ankle injury) -- or, God forbid, Sunday in Green Bay -- the Seahawks won't have a chance.
So will we see that Wilson anytime soon? We'll return to Danny Kelly, who wrote this before the Debacle at Lambeau but is more relevant now than ever:
With Thomas now out for the rest of the year, the Seahawks can no longer afford performances like the one we saw from Wilson in Week 12 against the Bucs (17-for-33 passing with two interceptions). There's just no margin for error anymore; Seattle's defense isn't going to be able to save the offense's bacon if Wilson has an off day or looks like anything less than the guy that returned to form in Weeks 9, 10, and 11, or that lit defenses up in the second half of last season.
The bad news (short-term edition): Things might get worse before they get better. The Seahawks host a Rams team that is currently 4-9, and before that, 7-9 and 6-10. Yet through all the mediocrity, those Jeff Fisher-coached outfits had an uncanny knack for beating the Seahawks, who are 30-14-1 in that same span. The Rams have won four of the past five meetings, including a 9-3 field goal-fest in Week 2.
Of course, Fisher was fired Monday. Whether his inexplicable success against Seattle follows him out the door (along with that 31-45-1 record) remains to be seen. Either way, if the Seahawks lose -- Vegas is unconcerned; Seattle is favored by 15 -- they'll be no worse than the No. 4 seed because of the aforementioned awfulness of the division.
10 minutes you won't get back
On the latest podcast, we talk with colleague Will Brinson about life after Fisher in Los Angeles, and if the Seahawks still pose the biggest threat to the Cowboys in the NFC.
About Fisher's (interim) replacement
Special teams coordinator John Fassel has been named the interim coach for the final three regular-season games, though the Rams are expected to target an offensive coach from outside the organization to replace Fisher long term.
If Fassel's name sounds familar, it's because his father, Jim, coached the Giants from 1997-2003 -- including a Super Bowl appearance after the 2000 season -- and later served as the Ravens' offensive coordinator from 2004-06.
John, meanwhile, began his NFL coaching career in 2005 as an assistant special teams coach, joining his father in Baltimore. By 2008, he was on the Raiders' staff, where he remained until 2011. In 2012 -- the same year Fisher was hired -- Fassel moved to the Rams, where he is now in his fifth season as the Rams' special teams coordinator.
Unlike Fisher's overall reign, Fassel has been particularly successful in his position. Here's the world's best punter (that's only a slight exaggeration), Johnny Hekker:
What are the long-term plans to replace Fisher?
Here's what we know for certain: It ain't Fassel.
Meanwhile, our colleague John Breech has compiled a list of possible candidates, with Josh McDaniels and Kyle Shanahan leading the way, though our favorite dark-horse candidate remains Jim Harbaugh.
Whoever gets the job, they'll almost certainly be offensive-minded and have explicit plans on how to get the most out of 2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff, who through no fault of his own has had a rocky rookie campaign.
It's Color Rush Thursday, y'all (again)!
Not only will the white-horned helmets make an appearance...
... Action Green will be there too.
Fun fact:
As for the action greens, safety Kam Chancellor is a huge fan.
"I love it," he said in September. "I think that green looks good on a dark-skinned brother like me. I like it, man. Overall, it's a real bright color, but I like it. I like how they got a little bit of blue on it just to make it pop out a little bit, and the helmet with it makes it look good. It's going to be a different look, but I like it."
They said it
Players have complained about playing football on Thursday night for as long as it has been a thing. It's a fair gripe -- there are only three days between games, and the physical nature of the sport doesn't lend itself to such quick turnarounds. Richard Sherman is the latest to weigh in on the matter.
"Poopfest. It's terrible," he said. "We got home like 1 o'clock in the morning, something like that on Monday and then you've got to play again. Congratulations, NFL, you did it again. But they've been doing it all season, so I guess we're the last ones to get the middle finger."
Sherman lamented that he won't be fully recovered (the Seahawks played in Green Bay last Sunday in a game that didn't end until around 7 p.m. ET), and called out league for talking out of both sides of its mouth when it comes to player safety.
"Because it's just no regard. It's hypocritical, as I've stated before," Sherman said. "They make this huge stance about player safety. Then you put the players in tremendous danger.
'TNF' on Twitter
Thursday's game will be on Twitter and you'll be able to stream it here: tnf.twitter.com.
You can use your mobile device or tablet with the NFL Network app. Kickoff is at 8:25 p.m. ET.
In addition to live streaming, the NFL-Twitter partnership also includes in-game highlights from"Thursday Night Football" and pregame Periscope broadcasts from players and teams.
Here's the remaining NFL-Twitter TNF schedule:
- Week 15, Dec. 15: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
- Week 16, Dec. 22: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Be sure to CBSSports.com's Pro Football Rundown for all the latest NFL news and commentary.