The final game of Week 10 pits the Los Angeles Rams against the Miami Dolphins on "Monday Night Football."
The Rams have won three straight since their bye week, with Matthew Stafford and Co. finally getting into more of a rhythm as the rest of the offense got closer to full health. They have vaulted themselves back into the NFC playoff picture, but need to continue stacking wins to maintain pace.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have lost three straight since their own bye, albeit by a total of just nine points. They've gotten their own offense going just a bit more now than Tua Tagovailoa is back under center, but have yet to look like the high-flying, explosive unit we saw over the past couple of years. At 2-6, their season is in danger of slipping away, and they need to turn it around soon.
Can the Rams make it four in a row, or will the Dolphins put an end to their streak? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Rams vs. Dolphins
Date: Monday, Nov. 11 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Channel: ESPN | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Rams -1.5; O/U 48.5 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
Check out the latest Caesars promo code to get in the game.
When the Dolphins have the ball
As of this writing, we still do not yet know whether Tyreek Hill will suit up for this game. He's listed as questionable with a wrist injury and is reportedly considered a "true" game-time decision, whatever that means. If he's out ... everything changes for Miami's offense. Everything. He is the center of gravity for what the Dolphins do -- even with De'Von Achane taking on a larger role in the passing game this season.
The Rams have largely struggled against the pass this year, though they have been better in recent weeks than they were earlier on. They did a really good job against Geno Smith and Co. last week, for example. Still, they don't have anyone who can run with Hill. Do they have anyone who can run with Jaylen Waddle? Not really! But if Hill is out, you can spin so much coverage in Waddle's direction that you can almost force Tua Tagovailoa to go anywhere else with the football. Counting on the likes of Jonnu Smith, Odell Beckham and Malik Washington to move the ball through the air is less than ideal.
The Rams, however, have been the worst defense in the NFL against passes to running backs, allowing 0.41 EPA per play, according to Tru Media. Opponents have completed 30 of 33 passes for 276 yards when throwing to their backs, and we know Achane can turn any short pass into a long touchdown if you don't get him on the ground right away. There will be a lot of pressure on L.A.'s linebackers and safeties to make the first tackle in space and not let Achane gear up to a full head of steam.
Miami's run game has been surprisingly ineffective this season, even in the games where Tagovailoa has been active. The Rams have been essentially league average when it comes to yards before and after contact per carry, via Tru Media, but they have done an excellent job limiting explosive gains on the ground. Just 15 of their opponents' 247 carries have gained 12 or more yards -- a 6.1% rate that is fifth-lowest in the league. Again, that is important against Achane (as well as Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright).
When the Rams have the ball
Over the last couple of weeks, we have finally seen the real Rams offense in action, thanks to the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. With both those players out, Matthew Stafford essentially had to play perfect football; and even that often was not close to enough. Bringing them back in the fold just opens up the entire field for the offense, and the results have been excellent -- even in a game where Nacua got ejected early on and Demarcus Robinson had to step up in his place.
The Rams will also benefit on Monday from getting healthier along the offensive line. Their preferred group of five up front has yet to step on the field together this season. That still won't happen Monday night, but they'll get a bit closer to having it intact. The benefits that carries for both Stafford's protection and Kyren Williams in the run game are enormous.
Miami's defense has played well this season, checking in 10th in EPA per play against the pass and 15th against the run, via Tru Media. The coverage on the back end has been sticky, with opponents completing only 62.3% of their passes at an average of just 6.7 yards per attempt. It will be interesting to see how the Dolphins choose to deploy Jalen Ramsey against this Rams offense, and whether he spends more time on Kupp or Nacua.
The Dolphins have generated pressure at a slightly above-average rate, but have struggled to turn that pressure into sacks -- something that could be an issue against Stafford, who is one of the toughest players in the league to actually get to the ground in the pocket. The Rams also try to get the ball out quickly in the pure dropback game, saving the longer-developing stuff for when they're running play-action concepts, so that could be a way to mitigate some of the pressure.
We should once again expect that despite his protestations, Sean McVay will ride Kyren Williams and Kyren Williams only in the backfield. That's just what he does. Williams is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry this year, though, and trying to bang him into the line over and over could set the Rams up in bad down and distance situations. Throwing to set up the run, rather than the other way around, would be a preferable strategy.
Prediction: Rams 23, Dolphins 17
Playing at home and getting closer and closer to full health, the Rams are appropriately favored coming into this game, and they should be able to come away with a win. We've seen what they look like when they have Stafford, Kupp and Nacua on the field together, and that's what they'll have tonight. In those situations, it's hard betting against them.
Bonus: Larry Hartstein, who is on a 44-27 roll on Rams games, has released his best bets for the Week 10 Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams matchup. Roberts is leaning the Under total, but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.