Ranking NFL's biggest surprise cuts, plus bold predictions and Aaron Donald not a lock to play in Week 1

Hello football friends, and welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

For the first time in 22 years, the NFL held cut day on a Sunday, and let me be the first to say that I hated it and I hope it doesn't happen again for another 22 years. No one wants to get cut on a Sunday. 

That being said, now that we have cuts out of the way, things are going to get a little crazy today thanks to the waiver wire. If a player got cut over the weekend and has less than four years of NFL experience, that player will be hitting the waiver wire, so there will literally be hundreds of players available today. All 32 teams have until 1 p.m. ET today to turn in their claims, and at some point after that, the NFL will let each team know whether their claims went through (The claim priority list is based on the 2026 draft order, and the Raiders have first rights to every player). 

If you want all the details of the waiver wire process, Tyler Sullivan was kind enough to explain how everything works and he did that here. We're also tracking every waiver claim and you if want to follow along, you can do that here. 

In other news, today is somehow the last day of August. Did we skip some days in August this year? Because I have no idea how August is already over. Alright, I'm going to stop babbling, let's get to the rundown. 

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.  

1. Ranking the biggest surprises from NFL cut day

When 1,184 players get released -- like we saw over the weekend -- there are always going to be a few that leave you a little bit surprised, so Carter Bahns decided to rank the 12 most shocking cuts from yesterday. 

I don't want to spoil the entire list, so we're only going to cover three cuts that made the list: 

• Titans cut QB Will Levis. It is an unceremonious end to the Will Levis experiment in Tennessee. The Titans kept Mitchell Trubisky as their backup instead of Levis, which goes to show how far he has fallen in less than two years.
• Broncos cut TE Justin Joly. A couple of months ago, few would have believed that Justin Joly would be without a job. He was a standout at North Carolina State, won the Tight End MVP award at the Senior Bowl and went to the Broncos in the fifth round of the draft. The path was clear for Joly to secure a top-three job in Denver's tight end group, but he struggled in camp and missed numerous blocks in preseason games.
• Vikings cut P Johnny Hekker. Time is winding down on Johnny Hekker's NFL career. He is not the same punter he was in the mid-2010s, when he redefined the punter's market value and made six consecutive All-Pro teams. Still, it is surprising to see the league's active leader in career punt yardage lose his job to a rookie, especially since the Vikings signed him in March to presumably be their lone punter. Instead, undrafted free agent Brett Thorson will handle the special teams duties in Minnesota while Hekker searches for a third team in one calendar year.

If you want to see Carter's full list of surprising cuts, we've got that here. 

2. NFL trade parade: There were more than 10 deals over the weekend

With NFL cut day falling on a Sunday for the first time in 22 years, it was a busy weekend in the NFL. Over a 48-hour span, we saw more than 10 trades go down and the good news for you is that if you lost track of all the trades, that's OK, because I kept tabs on all of them. 

Let's take a look at three of the deals that went down:

DOLPHINS-JAGUARS TRADE

• Jaguars get: QB Quinn Ewers
• Dolphins get: 2027 sixth-round pick
• Notes: With the Dolphins turning to Malik Willis at QB, Ewers had the chance to earn the backup job during training camp, but the Dolphins clearly weren't impressed with anything they saw from him or any other QB on the roster. Not only did Miami trade Ewers away, but the Dolphins also cut Cam Miller and Mark Gronowski, which left them with just one QB (Willis). For the Jags, this move gives them a new backup QB behind Trevor Lawrence. Nick Mullens had the job, but he was released Sunday. 

DOLPHINS-PACKERS TRADE

• Dolphins get: QB Kyle McCord
• Packers get: 2028 sixth-round pick
• Notes: The Dolphins are so bad this year that I thought for a second that they might think about going into the season with just one quarterback on their roster after getting rid of three different quarterbacks over the weekend, but it turns out they actually had a plan in mind. The Dolphins made a deal for McCord and the move kind of makes sense: McCord spent his rookie year in Philadelphia with Kevin Patullo as his offensive coordinator and Patullo is now the passing game coordinator for the Dolphins, so McCord will get work with an NFL assistant coach that he's familiar with. 

STEELERS-COWBOYS TRADE

• Cowboys get: OL Broderick Jones, 2027 fourth-round pick
• Steelers get: 2027 third-round pick, 2027 sixth-round pick
• Notes: This feels like a deal where the Steelers absolutely fleeced the Cowboys. The Steelers landed two draft picks for a player who was likely going to be cut. Jones had been in Pittsburgh since 2023 when the Steelers made him the 14th overall pick in the draft, but right now, there are some serious questions about his ability to play at a high level. Jones injured his neck last season and ended up undergoing a spinal fusion surgery, which caused him to miss the final five games of the year. He still doesn't seem to quite be at full strength, but the Cowboys made a deal for him anyway. 

As I said, it was a wild weekend, and it wasn't just because of the cuts. We also had a player come out of retirement, which brings us to our next topic. 

3. Aaron Donald is back: Rams star is returning to the NFL, but he's not a lock to play in Week 1

After putting us through two months of drama, Aaron Donald finally made a decision about his future on Sunday and I have some bad news for the rest of the NFL: Donald's coming back.

Here's what you need to know: 

• Donald restructured his contract to make the return happen. When Donald retired, he still had one year and $30 million left on his contract, but the two sides decided to revise the deal to make it slightly more team friendly. Donald's base pay will be just $10 million and then he can earn another $10 million on top of that in weekly bonuses for every game that he's on the active roster (He'll get a bonus of $666,667 per game and he can get the bonus up to 15 times). So that's $20 million that should be pretty easily attainable. Donald can also earn another $10 million in bonus money: He'll get $2.5 million if the Rams make the playoffs, $1.25 million if they win in the wild card round, $1.25 million for a Divisional win, $2.5 million for an NFC title win and $2.5 million for a Super Bowl win. So he can make $30 million total this year, but that will only happen if the Rams win the Super Bowl. 
• Why Donald took two months to decide. The Rams all-time sack leader actually practiced with the team on Sunday and he explained why it took him two months to make a decision. "I just wanted to take my time and make the right decision because once you choose to come back, you're all the way back in," Donald said. "You can't be halfway in, you [have to] be all the way in it. I had to get to that point where I felt like I'm 100 percent committed to playing football again because the last two years have been amazing."
• Donald's status for Week 1 is still up in the air. Although Donald will be back on the field, the Rams haven't yet decided if he'll be playing against the 49ers in Australia. In an interview on Sunday night, Rams coach Sean McVay said the team is still trying to decide what's best. "The first step was, all right if you're coming back let us do that, let us get you out on the practice field, let us get you acclimated to your teammates to your coaches and then we'll see what that ramp up period looks like whether or not he is available or whether or not we think it is best to be able to play him in Australia," McVay said. 
• Donald and Myles Garrett will create a historical duo. The upcoming season will mark the first time in NFL history that two players with multiple defensive player of the year awards are on the same team. The two players have a combined 13 first-team All-Pro selections, which is the most ever by a defensive duo at the same position (DL). Garrett holds the single-season NFL record for most sacks in a season while Donald holds the record for most sacks in a season by a defensive tackle (20.5 in 2018). 

As a bonus in all of this, the Rams are actually getting a two-week roster exemption with Donald coming out of retirement, so he won't count against the 53-man roster until Sept. 11. This means the Rams can technically carry 54 players for the next two weeks (53 plus Donald). 

If you want the full details on Aaron Donald's return, we've got them here.

4. One bold prediction for every NFL team: Giants surprise everyone, Kyler Murray wins MVP

Now that we've got cut day behind us, we can start focusing on the regular season and we're going to do that right now by unveiling 32 bold prediction for the upcoming season. Well, we're not going to unveil all 32, we're only going to unveil four of them, but CBS Sports NFL writer Doug Clawson has 32 and you can check out his full list here. 

Let's check out four of his most interesting bold predictions: 

• Giants: New York makes it to the Super Bowl. The Giants are going to make the Super Bowl in their first year with John Harbaugh. They have the talent between Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, Andrew Thomas, Francis Mauigoa, Abdul Carter, Brian Burns, Arvell Reese and more. Now, they have the coach to bring it all together. Harbaugh made the AFC title game in 2008 with rookie QB Joe Flacco and won 14 games in Lamar Jackson's second season, so I'm banking on a big year for Jaxson Dart as the Giants will be the Cinderella team of the 2026 season.
• Vikings: Kyler Murray will win NFL MVP. We have seen him play like an MVP for parts of a season before, when he had DeAndre Hopkins, and now the pieces are in place for a historic rebound with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings in his WR room.
• Dolphins: Miami becomes first team to go 0-17. The ingredients are all there for a winless season. This is a dumpster fire franchise that has not won a playoff game since 2000. Quarterback Malik Willis is a lottery ticket but Miami doesn't have the infrastructure around him to help him succeed.
• Steelers: Pittsburgh will go from first to worst in the AFC North. Aaron Rodgers' swan song will flame out as the Steelers will finish in last place in their division for the first time since 1988. Mike McCarthy won't be able to turn around a Steelers team that overachieved with Mike Tomlin. 

When I said these were bold predictions, I wasn't kidding. If you want to see all 32 of Doug's predictions, be sure to check out his full story here. 

5. Overreactions from the NFL preseason: Will Shedeur Sanders soon be taking over the starting QB job?

After today, I promise, you're not going to hear me talk about the 2026 preseason ever again, so we're going to go out with a bang: Carter Bahns is going to give us some overreactions from the preseason. 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the NFL, so Carter is going to take a look at several things that happened over the past three weeks of preseason play to decide if we're all overreacting. 

Statement: Shedeur Sanders will be the Browns' starting QB by Week 4

• Overreaction or reality: Reality

Nothing about his performance in two preseason showings indicated that Deshaun Watson was worthy of the Browns' starting quarterback job. It was such a shock that Cleveland named him the Week 1 starter that the only logical explanation was that the front office wants to save face after giving him the worst contract in sports. Watson is set up to crash and burn.

Statement: Aaron Glenn's defense will save his job

• Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Only a couple of coaches are on as hot of a seat as Aaron Glenn. His first season was so abysmal, particularly on defense, that any lack of improvement could result in his being the first coach fired in 2026. As a defensive coach, the group on that side of the ball, in particular, has to be better. That is why there are so many new faces, from Minkah Fitzpatrick to Joseph Ossai and from Demario Davis to Kingsley Enagbare.The jury is out on whether the additions of multiple veterans who are past their prime will make enough of a difference in regular-season games to keep the Jets out of the running for the No. 1 pick in next year's draft.

Statement: The Ravens have the NFL's best defense

• Overreaction or reality: Overreaction, but only slightly

During the preseason, opponents went just 6-for-35 on third down, and the Eagles went three-and-out seven times in Week 1. The Ravens racked up nine sacks and forced three turnovers, and they did not allow a touchdown over the final eight quarters. Between the existing star power of Kyle Hamilton, the splashy acquisition of Trey Hendrickson, the rising force that is Malaki Starks and Minter's arrival as a schematic mastermind, this defense has it all. Is it going to be the league's most dominant unit in 2026? That might be taking things a little far, considering the Texans and Seahawks remain elite, and the Rams are arguably the most talented squad. But the Ravens could enter the conversation.

There are plenty more overreactions from the preseason, and if you want to check those out, you can do that here. 

6. Extra points: Josh Jacobs currently ineligible to play 

It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Packers' Josh Jacobs placed on commissioner's exempt list. One of the biggest announcements on cut day had nothing to do with the cuts: The NFL has placed Josh Jacobs on the commissioner's exempt list. This basically means that Jacobs will be on paid leave until his legal situation is resolved. He's not allowed to practice or play in any games. Jacobs was charged with two misdemeanors last week stemming from an arrest that happened in May and the Packers knew the exempt list might be coming. His next court date isn't until November, which could create some issues for the Packers, because the NFL could simply keep him on the list until then. Jacobs arrest stems from a domestic incident and those have a baseline suspension of six games. What all of this means is that there's a chance that Jacobs won't be back on the field anytime soon. 
• Packers make trade for Kaleb Johnson. The Packers are clearly getting prepared for life without Jacobs, because they made a trade for Steelers running back Kaleb Johnson Sunday. The Packers sent a 2028 sixth-round pick to Pittsburgh in exchange for Johnson. If Jacobs is out, that means the Packers will be turning to MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks and possibly Johnson in the backfield. 
• Broncos defensive star Jonathan Cooper also placed on commissioner's exempt list. Jacobs wasn't the only player headed to the commissioner's exempt list. Broncos linebacker Jonathan Cooper has also been placed on the list. Cooper is a key starter for a Broncos defense that was one of the best linebackers in the NFL last year. He racked up eight sacks last season, which was the second-most on the team. However, Cooper was arrested twice over the summer and he's now facing five charges, including a felony assault charge. Like Jacobs, Cooper will be able to attend meetings at the team facility, but he won't be able to practice or play in any games while he's on the exempt list. 
• Keenan Allen arrested for DUI. Less than two weeks after signing with the Colts, Allen is already in legal trouble: The six-time Pro Bowler was arrested early Sunday morning and is now facing an OVWI charge (Indiana's version of a DUI). You can see his mugshot here. According to police, Allen's car was parked in a no-parking zone and when officers approached him shortly after 1 a.m. ET on Sunday, they said he exhibited "signs of intoxication." This could potentially lead to a suspension for Allen, so the Colts could once again be short-handed at receiver if the NFL decides to hand down a punishment any time soon (The league doesn't usually work quickly on things like this, so Allen might not face any punishment until next year, and by then, the 34-year-old might not even be playing anymore).