It was the year 2000. At the turn of the century home phones and CDs were still a thing. Eminem was bursting on the scene. Y2K didn't happen, and of course, bell cow running backs were still all the rage before this became a full-fledged passing league.
The NFL's rushing leaderboard was littered with names like Eddie George (235 pounds), Mike Anderson (230 pounds), Corey Dillon (225 pounds), Jamal Lewis (245 pounds, Jerome Bettis (255 pounds) and Stephen Davis (230 pounds). Ah, the good ole days, when running backs were the most valuable players in Fantasy. Eddie George had 404 carries for 3.7 yards per rush that year, an unheard of level of inefficiency today.
George and Co. aren't walking through those doors anytime soon, and neither is a 400-carry bell-cow back (the last player with 400 carries was Larry Johnson in 2006) as the running back timeshare is here to stay, but we are seeing a resurgence in the power back in 2024.
Overall, running the ball is making a comeback as passing plummets. Teams are averaging 119.5 rushing yards per game this year, the second-highest rate through Week 3 in the last 35 seasons. The leaguewide yards per rush (4.43) is its highest at this point in the year since 1958, when Jim Brown won the second of an NFL-record eight rushing titles.
Teams are running it over 44% of the time this year, the highest through Week 3 since 2008, and it's the highest rate on first downs (54%) since 1998.
Rushing on the rise this season
| Highest Through Week 3 Since ... | ||
|---|---|---|
Rushing yards per game | 119.5 | 2020 |
Yards per rush | 4.43 | 1958 |
Rush percentage | 44.4% | 2008 |
It's slowly becoming more valuable, too. Rush EPA is still a net negative but it's steadily increasing to -0.04 this season, the highest rate through Week 3 since 2008.
The main catalyst is the dual-threat quarterback as we are seeing record levels in terms of both volume and efficiency of quarterback rushing and scrambles.
Rushing by running backs is relatively steady, but there is a group of running backs who suggest some heavyweights are making a comeback.
You don't have to look past the NFL's rushing leaderboard to see that. There's your familiar names like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. But, there's J.K. Dobbins revitalizing his career with the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh.
Josh Jacobs is leading a resurgent run game in Green Bay. He had 32 carries in Week 2, the most by a Packer since Ryan Grant in 2008.
Jordan Mason had 28 rushes in Week 1 while replacing Christian McCaffrey, the most by 49er since Frank Gore in 2011.
These dudes are throwing their weight around, literally.
The average weight of the top-10 running back leaders in rush yards this season is 224 pounds, the sixth-highest since 1970, and up from 218.8 last season.
2024 RB rushing leaders
| Rush Yards | Weight (Lbs) | |
|---|---|---|
Saquon Barkley | 351 | 232 |
Jordan Mason | 324 | 223 |
J.K. Dobbins | 310 | 215 |
Alvin Kamara | 285 | 215 |
Derrick Henry | 281 | 247 |
Josh Jacobs | 278 | 223 |
Jonathan Taylor | 261 | 226 |
David Montgomery | 231 | 224 |
Aaron Jones | 228 | 208 |
Rhamondre Stevenson | 224 | 227 |
That plays into the fact that we are seeing record highs in yards after contact per rush (3.0) and yards per rush up the middle (4.5) this year.
Rushing since 2017 through Week 3
| YAC/Rush | Yards/Rush Up Middle | Tackle Avoid Pct | |
|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 14.1% |
2018 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 14.6% |
2019 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 16.1% |
2020 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 16.3% |
2021 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 16.4% |
2022 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 19.7% |
2023 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 18.9% |
| 2024 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 19.0% |
I would like to think this is more than just the product of a three-week sample. Defenses have been dropping back in coverage more and more every year. The usage of two-high safety coverage and light boxes are among the highest on record, or the highest, in the case of two-high coverage.
Defensive tendencies since 2017
| Two-High Safeties | Light Box | |
|---|---|---|
2017 | 16.8% | 52.5% |
2018 | 17.4% | 57.7% |
2019 | 26.8% | 58.4% |
2020 | 29.2% | 58.3% |
2021 | 31.1% | 58.6% |
2022 | 32.5% | 58.8% |
2023 | 34.2% | 62.4% |
2024 | 34.9% | 61.3% |
But, it's not just that. Offensive lines are bigger and defenders are getting smaller. The average weight of offensive linemen (317), weighted by playing time, is the highest on record (since snap data was first kept in 2007). The average weight of defenders in the box (265 pounds) is the lightest in 15 years (and down from 270 in 2014), and linebackers are the lightest on record (242 pounds).
We may just be talking about a pound or two, but in a game of inches, every gram counts! It stands to reason that the running game is benefitting from these defensive tendencies, and so are the aforementioned rushers at the top of the food chain.
Bad tackling as a result of the cutdown on offseason programs also plays a part. I bet lighter players in the box does, too. It's science!
There's been 899 missed tackles this season, the most through Week 3 on record.
Missed tackles through Week 3
2017 | 706 |
2018 | 748 |
2019 | 791 |
2020 | 792 |
2021 | 808 |
2022 | 821 |
2023 | 855 |
2024 | 899 |
This doesn't mean we are traveling back in time to the age of the smashmouth back. One of my former co-workers used to always share the quote of 90s running back Leroy Hoard for a cheap laugh. "Coach, if you need 1 yard, I'll get you 3 yards. If you need 5 yards, I'll get you 3 yards."
The running game is still relatively inefficient, especially compared with the pass, but the gap is shrinking. In 2018, throw EPA was 0.17 vs. rush EPA of -0.08. That's steadily shrunk to 0.11 vs -0.04 this season.
The return of the run game doesn't fully mitigate the losses from the decline in passing. The 201 passing yards per game this year is the lowest through Week 3 since 1998. Overall, offense is still going down.
PPG through Week 3 in last 5 seasons
2020 | 25.5 |
2021 | 23.5 |
2022 | 21.1 |
2023 | 22.5 |
2024 | 21.2 |
As CBS Sports NFL writer Jared Dubin mentioned last week, it's still an overall plus for defenses as they are baiting quarterbacks into checking down and the running game isn't doing enough to force defenses out of light boxes.
But, imagine how bad offense would be without this running resurgence.
It'll be interesting to see when the scales tip back in favor of the offense and how much the run game is a part of that. In the meantime, at least we can say the combination of lightning and thunder from dual-threat quarterbacks and power running backs is providing some much-needed pop we aren't getting from the passing game.