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The Seattle Seahawks will face the New England Patriots in the Big Game on Sunday, Feb. 8, when Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold will try to build on one of the best performances of his career. He completed 25 of 36 passes for 346 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Rams in the NFC Championship, leading Seattle back to the title game. Darnold had 14 interceptions during the regular season though, so SportsLine's proven computer model is backing Darnold to throw an interception against the Patriots at -142 odds, according to DraftKings. The model also likes Darnold to finish Under 238.5 pass plus rush yards, along with Over 1.5 touchdown passes. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 Big Game on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three Sam Darnold prop picks to bet at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

  • Sam Darnold Under 238.5 passing + rushing yards (-113)
  • Sam Darnold Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-122)
  • Sam Darnold Over 0.5 interceptions (-142)

Combining the model's three Sam Darnold prop picks into an NFL parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +650 (risk $100 to win $650).

Sam Darnold Under 238.5 passing + rushing yards (-113)

Darnold averaged 238.1 passing yards per game during the regular season, but that number has dipped slightly to 235 yards in the postseason. He averaged 5.6 rushing yards in the regular season and 4.5 in the playoffs, so the model does not expect him to do much on the ground against New England. The Patriots lead the NFL in yards allowed per game (209.7) during the playoffs, giving up just 138 passing yards. SportsLine's model has Darnold finishing with 230 passing plus rushing yards against the Patriots, providing value on the Under.     

Sam Darnold Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-122)

Darnold went Over this total eight times during the regular season, and he is coming off a three-touchdown performance against the Rams in the NFC Championship. He also had four touchdowns against both the Buccaneers and Commanders during the regular season, while posting three against the Falcons. The Seahawks lost running back Zach Charbonnet to a season-ending knee injury earlier this postseason, which was a big blow after he led the team with 12 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. This gives Darnold more passing touchdown opportunities near the end zone, which is one reason why the model is taking the Over for this prop. 

Sam Darnold Over 0.5 interceptions (-142)

While he did not throw an interception against the 49ers in the Divisional Round or against the Rams in the NFC Championship, he had plenty of turnover issues in the regular season. He had 14 interceptions in 17 games, including eight across his final eight games of the campaign. Darnold is facing a Patriots defense that has five interceptions in three playoff games after recording 10 during the regular season. The model has Darnold throwing an interception in 82% of simulations, while the odds imply just a 59% chance.