imagn-jaxon-smith-njigba-sam-darnold-seahawks.jpg

The Space Needle vs. Freedom Trail. Starbucks vs. Dunkin' Donuts. Nirvana vs. Aerosmith. 

Super Bowl 60 is set, pitting two towns and two unlikely teams: the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. Listed at 60-1 to win the Super Bowl prior to the season, the Seahawks (16-3) have ridden the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense and the hot hand of quarterback Sam Darnold to get to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.

Meanwhile, the Patriots (17-3) were even longer shots to get to this point, listed at 80-1 to lift the Lombardi Trophy. But first-year coach Mike Vrabel overhauled the culture, and quarterback Drake Maye had a breakthrough season to return the six-time Super Bowl champs to the top of the AFC much sooner than many expected. 

Seattle is a 4.5-point favorite over New England at DraftKings. The Over/Under for total points scored is 45.5.

Seahawks vs Patriots odds

  • Opening spread: Seahawks -4.5
  • Opening money line: Seahawks -205, Patriots +170
  • Opening total: 46.5

Super Bowl 60 features the two teams that were the best against the spread this season. New England and Seattle were both 12-5 ATS during the regular season, which tied for the best record in the league.

This point spread opened at -3.5 at some sportsbooks, but that number disappeared quickly. Since the early action on Seattle, the line has remained steady ever since. If it remains at -4.5, it would tie the largest spread in a Super Bowl in the last 15 years. But current betting trends suggest that the point spread is more likely to go to -5 or beyond than the other way once the real betting begins.

Meanwhile, the money line has moved even more substantially since opening at -205, and the total has dropped since being initially offered at 46.5. If the total stays at 46.5 or fewer, it would be the smallest total in the Super Bowl since 2015.

Under bettors seem to be buying into the fact that the game features two of the best scoring defenses in the league. (Seahawks were first in the regular season at 17.2 points per game, while the Patriots were fourth at 18.8.) But the Over is 23-16 in the teams' games this season and 2-0-1 in the last three Super Bowls.

Seahawks betting profile

  • Opening win total: 7.5 wins
  • W/L record: 16-3
  • ATS record: 14-5
  • O/U record: 11-8

Seahawks supporters have been printing money all season. Seattle easily cleared its preseason win total and was dominant ATS during the regular season. The team has been favored in nine straight games, going 9-0 straight-up and 6-3 ATS over that stretch. The Seahawks have covered four in a row, all against playoff teams. 

Seattle has excelled on the road this season. The team is 8-1 both straight-up and ATS away from home. That includes a 13-3 victory at Levi's Stadium over the 49ers in the regular season finale with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line. 

The Seahawks' biggest edge in this game is arguably their defense against the Patriots' struggling offense. While the Dark Side has been dominant the entire year, New England is averaging just 18.0 points per game in the playoffs, and that includes a pick six against the Texans' C.J. Stroud in the AFC Divisional Round game. The Patriots' playoff scoring average is 10.8 points per game fewer than the team's average during the regular season.

Patriots betting profile

  • Opening win total: 7.5 wins  
  • W/L record: 17-3
  • ATS record: 14-6
  • O/U record: 12-8

The Patriots have been cash machines all year for their backers, covering 12 games during the regular season (tied with the Seahawks for the best in the league) and soaring over their preseason win total. New England had covered five in a row prior to the AFC Championship Game against Denver, which was played in a wild snowstorm in the second half. 

The Patriots have been even better than Seattle away from home this season. New England is 9-0 straight-up (and 7-2 ATS) on the road and remains the only NFL team to go undefeated this year away from home.

In addition, the Over has hit in six of the Patriots' last eight games, and the total for the Super Bowl is trending to being the smallest in the Super Bowl since 2015.

New England bettors can draw confidence from the team's defense. The Patriots have allowed just two touchdowns on 36 drives during the playoffs. They've also allowed the fewest points per game (8.7) through three playoff games since the 2000 Ravens, who won the Super Bowl. 

Seahawks-Patriots prop pick: Drake Maye Under 37.5 rushing yards

Maye's rushing yards prop has risen at least two points since its opening. Bettors are enamored by Maye's increased usage in the run game in the postseason, in which he has averaged 47.0 rushing yards and 8.0 carries across three games. In addition, the Seahawks owned the sixth-best pressure rate (40.1%) during the regular season, which normally would translate to quarterbacks being forced to escape the pocket and run the ball.

However ,Seattle plays a heavy dose of zone defense, which allows defenders to come up and make plays on quarterbacks who dare to run. In 19 games this season, the Seahawks allowed a quarterback to run for 38 yards or more in a game just three times. Two of those were the explosive Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray. Only one opposing quarterback, the 49ers' Brock Purdy in the NFC Divisional Round game, has gone for 38 rushing yards or more in Seattle's last 11 games.