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In the final game of Wild Card Weekend, the Pittsburgh Steelers play host to the Houston Texans.

Pittsburgh won the AFC North in dramatic fashion, prevailing over the division rival Baltimore Ravens thanks to a missed field goal on the final snap of the regular season. The Steelers finished the season 10-7 after winning four of their final five games, and they enter the postseason playing some of their best football of the year.

Houston finished second in the AFC South at 12-5, but ended the year as the hottest team in the NFL. The Texans dropped to 3-5 after a Week 9 loss to the Broncos, then ripped off nine consecutive wins to end the season. Led by one of the most ferocious defenses in the league, they are certainly playing their best ball of the year as well.

Will the Texans go on the road and knock off Pittsburgh, or will the Steelers pull off the upset? We'll find out soon enough. Before we dig into some key storylines, here's a look at how you can watch the game.

Where to watch Steelers vs. Texans live

  • Date: Monday, Jan. 12 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
  • TV: ABC/ESPN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)  
  • Follow: CBS Sports App
  • Odds: Texans -3, O/U 38.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Key Storylines

  • Hot at the right time. Both of these teams enter this game playing quite well. As mentioned above, the Steelers have won four out of their last five games and the Texans have won nine in a row. The Steelers have turned the ball over just once during that five-game span and have scored 26-plus points in each of the four wins after doing so just five times in their first 12 games. The Texans have forced multiple turnovers in five of their nine consecutive wins and allowed 20 points or less in six of them. 
  • Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs. Rodgers won a Super Bowl in his second postseason appearance, going 4-0 in the playoffs along the way. Since then, though, he is just 7-9 in postseason action. He's played fairly well (63.8% completion rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, 32 touchdowns against 10 interceptions) but his teams have lost several games they probably should have won, including a pair of overtime losses. Rodgers also hasn't actually played in the playoffs since the 2021 season, when he went 20 of 29 for 225 scoreless yards in a 13-10 loss to the 49ers. He'll now face one of the best defenses in the NFL this time around.
  • Houston's defense. The Texans finished the season first in yards allowed, second in points allowed and tied for first in TruMedia's version of EPA per play. You can't really throw the ball on them -- teams completed only 59.3% of their passes at an average of just 5.8 yards per attempt, with 20 touchdowns against 19 interceptions. Opponents averaged -0.13 EPA per dropback, which means the Texans basically turned every quarterback into J.J. McCarthy. But you also can't really run on the Texans. Opponents averaged just 4.0 yards per carry, and only 1.08 per carry before contact, via TruMedia. The Texans are one of the best tackling teams in the NFL, and they don't allow teams to get going downhill against them.
  • Playoff picture. After the Patriots and Bills won on Sunday, the winner of this game will head to New England to take on the Pats in the divisional round. New England is coming off a 16-3 victory over the Chargers. The Steelers beat the Patriots earlier this season in a game where the Pats turned the ball over five times. The Texans and Patriots didn't play, as the Pats' only regular-season games against playoff teams were that game against the Steelers and a pair of matchups against the Bills. That win over the Pats was Pittsburgh's only victory against a fellow playoff team during the regular season, as the Steelers went 1-5 in those games. The Texans, meanwhile, went 4-4 in games against playoff teams after starting the season 0-3 in those contests.

Steelers vs. Texans prediction

Look, I've been picking against the Steelers all season and they keep making me look stupid by pulling games out of their collective butts. But I'm still picking against them here. I just can't see them consistently moving the ball against this ferocious Houston defense -- especially if Rodgers is unwilling to hold on to the ball for long enough to even try pushing it down the field. All the checkdowns he likes to throw to the running backs don't work as well against the Texans as they do against other teams because of how they rally to the ball. I'm not sure Houston can move the ball with any degree of consistency on the other side, but I'm going to back the team with the best single unit in the game here.

Pick: Texans 16, Steelers 10 | (Texans -3, Under 38.5)