Super Bowl 2026 best bet rankings: Expert picks NFL futures heading into Week 18
We take a look at Super Bowl odds and other playoff lines to determine the best postseason bets to lock in early
With Week 17 just about wrapped up, we know 12 of the 14 teams in the playoffs vying for a spot in Super Bowl 2026. Two spots are up for grabs in Week 18 as the Buccaneers host the Panthers on Saturday with the teams fighting for the NFC South crown, while the Ravens head to Pittsburgh to close out the season with an AFC North division title showdown. Also on Saturday, the Seahawks and 49ers will play not just for the NFC West title but also the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Despite the Rams being locked out of the race for the NFC West crown, they are still the favorites to win Super Bowl 2026 at DraftKings with a +475 price. The Seahawks are next at +500 before we get to the current top two seeds in the AFC, with the Broncos listed at +750 and the Patriots at +900. The 49ers (+950), Eagles (+1000) and Bills (+1100) are up next, followed by the two teams competing for the AFC South title, the Jaguars (+1300) and Texans (+1400). The Packers, Bears and Ravens are all set at +2000, with the Chargers close behind at +2500. The Steelers (+9000), Buccaneers (+10000) and Panthers (+20000) are the longshots.
The Rams' position atop the Super Bowl odds table brings a potential betting opportunity for those who believe having to win likely three road games is too much of an uphill battle, even with no other NFC team looking at the Rams' level over the course of the season. If the Rams earn the No. 5 seed, they'll face the Buccaneers or Panthers as big favorites. That game will be played on the East Coast, and the Rams may have to head back across the country to play the Eagles in the divisional round the following week if Chicago loses in the wild-card round, as the Bears' opponent would then be ticketed to play whichever NFC West team wins the No. 1 seed.
So if the Super Bowl favorite is overvalued, which teams offer the best value to back with one week remaining in the regular season? I'll rank all 16 teams still alive for the playoffs below in terms of Super Bowl betting value, then get into a few bonus markets worth checking out.
Super Bowl betting value rankings (Week 18)
16. Buccaneers (+10000)
15. Steelers (+9000)
14. Panthers (+20000)
I'd put the Bucs last as their odds are twice as short as the Panthers in a conference with a tougher path to the title. They've lost seven of their last eight games, and even with the talent on paper it's nearly impossible to imagine them reversing their play over the last two months to the point where they win four games against some of the best teams in the league.
The Steelers should have shorter odds than either of the two NFC teams here, but the gap between them and the Panthers is too big for me to put them at No. 14 on our list. Pittsburgh is a well-coached team that could surprise by winning a few games as underdogs if they can make it in, but four straight? That seems like too much to ask. I'd likely take the points with them at home against the Texans if that ends up being the 4-5 matchup.
13. Texans (+1400)
12. Packers (+2000)
11. Ravens (+2000)
10. Bears (+2000)
9. Chargers (+2500)
The Texans arguably have the best defense in the league, but their offense has too few impressive performances on its resume down the stretch to think that they can win a game where both teams are putting up points like they did against the Jaguars in early November. I would have them grouped with the teams in the +2000 range, so they are the worst value of the non-longshots to me.
The Packers look finished after the injuries to Micah Parsons and Devonte Wyatt on defense, and while it's possible they could upset the Bears in the wild card round, are they going to beat two teams after that considering how solid the rest of the field looks?
The Ravens of course have Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and that could be enough to run through a bunch of imperfect teams on the way to the Super Bowl in the AFC. We just haven't seen any indication of that team lurking in the shadows this season, and this Ravens team fighting for its life just to get to the playoffs looks like a far weaker team than others that have stumbled in prior postseasons.
The Bears have an edge over the rest of the teams in this tier in that they'll likely be playing two home games before having to worry about potentially winning on the road, and if they do wind up the 2 seed, they could host the NFC Championship Game if one of the other NFC West teams upsets the 1 seed in the divisional round. Their only two losses since October have been on the road in extremely close games against other playoff teams, and they won convincingly in Philadelphia. They'd be underdogs in the NFC Championship Game against most teams even at home, but it wouldn't shock me to see them get to the Super Bowl.
The Chargers have major issues on the offensive line, but they're unlikely to face the Texans with both teams expected to be wild cards, so it's possible that they can largely mask that weakness on the AFC side of the bracket. The one other team that figures to cause problems is the Broncos, but with a good coach and quality defense in their corner, the Chargers may be able to beat the Broncos in Denver in a low-scoring slugfest similar to what they did in Kansas City a few weeks ago. This is the first team I'd actually consider making a play on as I don't agree that they should be set apart from the rest of the +2000 tier.
8. Bills (+1100)
7. Seahawks (+500)
6. Broncos (+750)
5. Eagles (+1000)
4. 49ers (+950)
We probably have both No. 1 seeds in this group, which certainly would give the Broncos and either the Seahawks or 49ers an edge in getting to the Super Bowl. But each of the five teams looks like one side of the ball is not good enough to plow through the postseason and win the title. That starts with a Bills team that looks awful on defense and has no semblance of a passing attack on offense. We know Josh Allen has it in him to score 40 on anyone if healthy, but they are going to have to catch a lot of breaks with their matchups to make that happen.
We've certainly seen this script with Sam Darnold before, and his level of play over the last month-plus has been a bigger warning sign than what we had going into Week 18 last year. I can't make a play on Seattle at odds that are just behind the favorite with Darnold at QB.
The Broncos feel similar to the Seahawks in that I don't trust their offense even as Bo Nix has had some strong games in the second half. Only two of their wins have been by more than one score, and we saw that formula work for the Chiefs last year until it didn't. Denver is going to be a hard place for any team to win, but Jacksonville did it pretty convincingly in Week 16.
The Eagles are the upgraded version the Seahawks and Broncos in that I believe wholeheartedly in their defense but have been unimpressed by the offense, although in Philly's case we know that elite ceiling for the offense exists and they certainly have the experience in January that the other two teams don't. Paired with getting much better odds, I'd rather play them than the other teams in this tier, but I can't see this offense getting it done if it has to beat the Rams at any point.
I'm sliding the 49ers and their questionable defense to the top of this group as I think they'll beat Seattle in Week 18 to get the 1 seed and then have a shot at playing a home game in the Super Bowl if they get there, though the crowd for a Super Bowl is much different than any other home game. An Eagles-49ers NFC Championship would be a tough one to handicap, as the Eagles defense may finally slow down the 49ers offense, but will the Eagles offense be trustworthy enough to back on the road in the matchup?
3. Rams (+475)
I feel like the Rams deserve their own tier as the team everyone trusts the most in the entire playoff field, but the fact they could be on the road for three straight weeks means I can't recommend backing them as the favorites on these odds. This might even be a little high as I'm not sure the 49ers deserve to be twice as long odds despite their defensive deficiencies if they get the 1 seed.
2. Patriots (+900)
1. Jaguars (+1300)
In a wide-open AFC, I feel like both these teams present good value to make a run to the title. They'll likely face each other in the divisional round, and I'd take the winner to beat the Broncos in Denver or any other team at home in the AFC title game. Then you're just talking about winning one game against the NFC. If that comes against the Rams, that may be the end of the road. But if the Rams' road schedule trips them up, I could see either of these defenses doing enough against a team like the Seahawks or Eagles to keep the game close and let Drake Maye or Trevor Lawrence go out and win it.
I put the Jaguars at No. 1 as they might be the most complete team in the AFC right now, but that's not reflected in the odds, which put them fourth in the conference and just barely ahead of the Texans. They stacked impressive wins early in the season at San Francisco and home against Kansas City, and they look much better now than when they lost back-to-back games against the Seahawks and Rams after the Chiefs win. Their only loss since that stretch was a meltdown in a game they led 29-10 heading into the fourth quarter. Seven straight wins have followed that loss, including five by at least 14 points, the last coming in Denver against the team that's probably going to be the 1 seed.
More NFL futures best bets
Jaguars to win AFC (+550)
It probably goes without saying, but if I like Jacksonville as the best Super Bowl value, this makes all the sense in the world so we don't have to worry about playing a potentially superior NFC team. If they wind up the 3 seed as expected and have to win at New England and Denver, it's going to be a pretty tough road, but who knows if the top seeds advance in such an unexpected field.
Super Bowl winning division: AFC East (+450)
I played the NFC West at +700 in this prop prior to the season as that division had the second longest odds, which seemed way off for a division I thought would have three playoff teams. The NFC West is down to +130 now, and that feels like a pretty good play for anyone who doesn't believe the Eagles will suddenly flip a switch in January. For those not completely sold on the Jaguars, I like this as an AFC play so that we can group the Patriots together with potential Josh Allen heroics for the Bills.
Exact matchup: Ravens vs. Bears (+10000)
Exact matchup: Jaguars vs. Bears (+6500)
In what feels like a wide-open race in both conferences, it's worth taking a look at the exact matchup market to see if anything sticks out as a longshot sprinkle. Once you get through all the potential matchups involving the three longshot Super Bowl winners (Steelers, Panthers, Buccaneers), you're left with Chargers-Packers, Ravens-Packers, Chargers-Bears and Ravens-Bears. The case for the Ravens is pretty easy, as it involves Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry playing to their ceilings and rolling through a bunch of imperfect teams in the AFC field.
If the Bears are the No. 2 seed, they've proven they can beat the Packers and Eagles, which leaves them needing to win just one game against the NFC West, potentially even at home, to get to the Super Bowl. Throwing them in either of these pairings feels like a pretty good lottery ticket.
