Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis (turf, indoors)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Texans by 7.
Records: Texans (12-3; AFC South 5-0); Colts (10-5; AFC South 3-2)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec. 16, 2012: Texans 29, Colts 17; Dec. 22, 2011: Colts 19, Texans 16. Series record: Colts lead 17-4.
What matters: The Texans clinched the AFC South title when they beat the Colts 29-17 back in Week 15, and this time around, there is even more on the line. Houston can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win against Indianapolis Sunday. With a loss, the Texans could easily slip back into the No. 3 seed and have to play a home game on Wild Card weekend. Emotions will be running high as Colts coach Chuck Pagano returns to the sideline for the first time since Week 3 after a three-month bout with leukemia.
Who matters: DE J.J. Watt was one of eight Texans selected to the AFC Pro Bowl roster earlier this week, and he has been dominant this season. Watt was at his best in the first meeting against the Colts, registering 10 tackles, three sacks, six tackles for loss, and a forced fumble. WR Andre Johnson has caught 66 passes for 1,013 yards in the last eight games, his highest output in any eight-game stretch over his career. QB Matt Schaub earned his second Pro Bowl invite. He threw for 261 yards and a touchdown against Indianapolis in Week 15.
Key matchups: RB Arian Foster was held to season lows of 10 carries and 15 rushing yards last week against Minnesota. He had to leave the game in the second half with an irregular heartbeat and did not return despite doctors telling coach Gary Kubiak that Foster was able. With the running game unable to get going, the offense struggled. Foster will need to have success against a poor Colts run defense. Indianapolis is No. 29 in the NFL in rushing defense, giving up 139.9 yards per game. Foster had 165 yards on 27 carries the first time around against the Colts.
Injuries of note: CB Alan Ball (foot) will be out but is expected to return next week for the playoffs. Foster had to leave last week’s game with an irregular heartbeat, but he is expected to be at 100 percent Sunday. OLB Brooks Reed (groin) also left last week's game early but should play Sunday.
Inside stuff: Kubiak has talked all month about his frustrations with the offense’s performance on third down. The issue came to a head last week when Houston converted just one of 11 third downs against the Vikings. For the month of December, the Texans are converting just 25.5 percent (14-for-55) on third down.
Connections: Johnson (1999-02) and C Chris Myers (2000-04) played college football at Miami with Colts WR Reggie Wayne (1997-00) when Pagano (1995-00) coached the defensive backs.
Stat you should know: The Texans have not scored an offensive touchdown in the last seven quarters, dating back to the first quarter of the Week 15 game against the Colts. In that game, Houston scored a touchdown on just 1 of 5 red zone trips.
Record watch: Watt is two sacks shy of tying Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record of 22.5 set back in 2001. ... A win would give Houston its first ever in Indianapolis, where the Texans are 0-10 all-time.
Bulletin board quote: Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips on home field advantage in the playoffs: “I think it’s overrated a little bit as far as momentum. It’s how you match up with each team. ... It’s not always that. It’s the team that plays well once you get into the playoffs. That’s why it’s so important just to get in.”
Looking ahead: The Texans will be in the playoffs, but it is just a matter of whether they earn a bye. If Houston wins Sunday, it clinches the top seed in the AFC. A loss, along with wins by the Broncos and Patriots, would knock the Texans down to the No. 3 seed, and they would host the Bengals next weekend.
Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 23
Follow Texans blogger Sean Bielawski on Twitter @CBSTexans.
