Bengals at Texans -- AFC wild-card round

Where: Reliant Stadium, Houston (turf, roof expected to be closed)

When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Spread: Texans by 4.5.

Records: Texans (12-4; AFC South 5-1); Bengals (10-6; AFC North 3-3)

Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Jan. 7, 2012: Texans 31, Bengals 10; Dec. 11, 2011: Texans 20, Bengals 19. Series record: Texans lead 4-3.

What matters: The Texans limp into the playoffs having lost three of their last four games and are playing a wild-card game after blowing two opportunities to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Now, Houston will face a familiar foe in Cincinnati. Last year, the Texans beat the Bengals 31-10 in Houston in this same scenario in the playoffs. But this year, Cincinnati is one of the hottest teams in the league, winning seven of its last eight games.

Who matters: QB Matt Schaub has struggled recently, throwing for one touchdown and three interceptions in the past four games. He will be looking to get the ball to WR Andre Johnson as much as possible. Johnson finished second in the NFL with 1,598 receiving yards but managed just four touchdowns. RB Arian Foster led the league in rushing scores with 15 and rushing attempts with 351. The Texans will have their hands full with Bengals WR A.J. Green, who had 1,350 yards and 11 touchdowns in his second year in the league. Cincinnati RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis has gone over 100 yards in four of his past six games.

Key matchups: DE J.J. Watt had one of the best seasons for a defensive lineman in the history of the league. Watt had 20.5 sacks, 39 tackles for loss, and 16 passes defended. Last year, Watt took his game to another level in the playoffs, including returning an interception 29 yards for a touchdown against Cincinnati. He and the defensive front will need to control the line of scrimmage against the Bengals' offensive line. Cincinnati has allowed 46 sacks, seventh-most in the NFL.

Injuries of note: ILB Tim Dobbins (ankle) missed practice Wednesday. CB Alan Ball (foot) has missed the last five games but is expected to play Saturday. OLB Brooks Reed (groin) missed last week’s game after aggravating a groin injury he suffered on Thanksgiving at Detroit, but he has been practicing this week.

Inside stuff: Houston has been dealing with plenty of injuries at the inside linebacker position. The Texans placed ILB Brian Cushing on injured reserve in early October, and this week, they had to put ILB Darryl Sharpton on IR with a hip injury. Dobbins would step in this week for Sharpton, but he has been slowed by that ankle injury, meaning ILB Barrett Ruud could play a significant role alongside starting ILB Bradie James.

Connections: Texans CB Johnathan Joseph was a first-round pick by the Bengals in 2006 and played in Cincinnati until 2010. K Shayne Graham played for the Bengals from 2003-09 and made the Pro Bowl in 2005.

Stat you should know: The Bengals have been playing excellent defense in the second half of the season. Cincinnati is allowing 12.8 points over its last eight games.

Record watch: Foster can become the first player in NFL history to rush for 100 or more yards in his first three playoff games.

Bulletin board quote: Texans coach Gary Kubiak: “I think this time of year, players take over, to be honest with you. Coaches, we’re always on these guys week-to-week. I think playoff football is their time of the year.”

Looking ahead: If the Texans win, they will play the Patriots. Houston lost 42-14 in Foxborough in Week 14. If the Texans lose, their season will have come to an end in an incredibly disappointing fashion, losing four of their last five games.

Prediction: Texans 16, Bengals 13

Follow Texans blogger Sean Bielawski on Twitter @CBSTexans.