Texans vs. Steelers prediction, odds, start time: NFL 2026 Wild Card Weekend picks on Monday by proven model

The fifth-seeded Houston Texans face the fourth-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers in a 2026 Wild Card Weekend matchup on Monday Night Football. Houston is coming off a 38-30 Week 18 win over the Indianapolis Colts, while Pittsburgh held off Baltimore 26-24. The Texans (12-5), who finished second in the AFC South, are 5-3 on the road this season. The Steelers (10-7), the champions of the AFC North, are 6-3 on their home field. Pittsburgh will welcome the return of wide receiver DK Metcalf (suspension).

Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The Steelers lead the all-time series 5-3. The Texans are 3-point favorites in the latest Steelers vs. Texans odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 38 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Before making any Texans vs. Steelers picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL playoffs on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has set its sights on Texans vs. Steelers. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Steelers vs. Texans:

Why the Texans can cover

Third-year quarterback C.J. Stroud powers the Houston offense. In 14 games this season, he has completed 64.5% of his passes for 3,041 yards and 19 touchdowns with eight interceptions and a 92.9 rating. He has also rushed 48 times for 209 yards (4.4 average) and one touchdowns. In a 40-20 win over Arizona on Dec. 14, he completed 22 of 29 passes for 260 yards and three touchdowns.

One of his top targets is fifth-year wide receiver Nico Collins. In 15 games, he has 71 receptions for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns. He has 18 explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long of 57, with 324 yards after the catch and 48 first-down conversions. In a 20-10 win over Kansas City on Dec. 7, he caught four passes for 121 yards, including a long of 53. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Steelers can cover

Veteran quarterback and future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers leads the Pittsburgh attack. In 16 games this season, he has completed 65.7% of his passes for 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns with seven interceptions and a 94.8 rating. He has also rushed for one score. In the Week 18 win over Baltimore, Rodgers completed 31 of 47 passes for 294 yards and one touchdown. He also rushed once for 20 yards.

Metcalf will be back and gives Rodgers more options. In 15 games this season, Metcalf has 59 receptions for 850 yards (14.4 average) and six touchdowns. He has had 15 explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 80, with 414 yards after the catch and 37 first-down conversions. In a 27-22 win at Baltimore on Dec. 7, he had seven receptions for 148 yards, including a long of 52. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Texans vs. Steelers picks

SportsLine's model is going Over on the total, projecting 42 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Steelers vs. Texans, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Steelers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.