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The New England Patriots and Houston Texans both used stifling defensive efforts to carry the day in their Wild Card Weekend playoff victories. Something has to give when the No. 2-seeded Patriots host the No. 5-seeded Texans on Sunday in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is set for 3 p.m. ET in the nationally-televised contest. 

The AFC East champion Patriots are coming off a dominant 16-3 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in which they sacked Justin Herbert six times and allowed 207 yards of total offense while holding Los Angeles to 1-of-10 on third-down attempts.

The Texans used a similar profile as their rugged defense broke open a tight game in the second half for a 30-6 victory over the homestanding Pittsburgh Steelers. Houston allowed just 175 yards of total offense and 3.1 yards per play, and two late defensive scores helped overcome a three-turnover performance from quarterback C.J. Stroud.

New England is a three-point favorite at home and the over/under for total points scored is 40.5, per the latest DraftKings NFL odds for Texans vs. Patriots. 

Here is a look at the Texans vs. Patriots matchup from a betting perspective: 

Texans vs. Patriots odds

  • Opening spread: Patriots -3
  • Opening money line: Patriots -175, Texans +145 
  • Opening total: 41, now 40.5  

Texans betting profile

  • Opening win total: 8.5 wins  
  • W/L record: 12-5
  • ATS record:10-7
  • O/U record: 7-10

The Texans quietly overcame an 0-3 start -- by 13 combined points -- to end the regular season on a nine-game winning streak behind one of the NFL's top-rated defenses. A national TV audience on Monday night saw what that menacing group, with a relentless pass rush and ball-hawking secondary, is capable of. However, they were fortunate that Pittsburgh is an extremely limited offensive team because Stroud's consistent troubles with the snap (he had five total fumbles) and shaky decision-making kept the Steelers in the game for three quarters and could have spelled doom against a higher-quality opponent such as the one they will face Sunday in the Patriots. 

Patriots betting profile

  • Opening win total: 8.5 wins  
  • W/L record: 14-3
  • ATS record: 11-6
  • O/U record: 9-8 

The Patriots were a trendy pick to exceed their over/under win total and perhaps contend for a playoff berth, and they cleared both hurdles with room to spare. There's little doubt they were aided by the NFL's weakest schedule but, even so, a road win over the Bills and their wild-card victory over the Chargers illustrated that this team is no fluke. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who is an MVP candidate, didn't have his best game in the opening round but still outplayed Herbert, who has yet to notch a playoff victory. Maye sealed the game with late TD pass to Hunter Henry. Maye threw for 268 yards and added a team-best 66 rushing yards as the Patriots moved one win away from an AFC title game appearance in their first year under coach Mike Vrabel. 

Texans-Patriots prop pick: C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 interceptions

Although we believe the Houston defense is strong enough to carry the Texans to a Super Bowl appearance, the alarmingly poor play of Stroud in the opening round is a concern that can't be ignored. All the Texans need from the former No. 2 overall pick is a game manager-plus profile, one that includes playing mistake-free football with the occasional big play mixed in, and Stroud has shown such ability in the past. But he looked uncomfortable from the start against the Steelers and appeared unwilling to use his legs to get a first down when the opportunity presented itself. This dynamic caused his awful red-zone interception. Stroud's lack of accountability also was concerning as afterward he repeatedly told a stunned media contingent -- many of whom believed he was trolling -- that he thought he played well in the victory. While a similar performance will guarantee a Houston exit, we're hoping for better from the third-year QB who, in fairness, has led the Texans to the Divisional Round in all three seasons as their starter. But we expect the Patriots' varied looks to force Stroud into at least one mistake and feel comfortable that he will cash the Over on this interception prop.