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The Houston Texans survived a slow start to the year offensively to finish the regular season 12-5 and make the postseason as the No. 5 seed in the AFC, thanks in large part to having the NFL's best defense. The Pittsburgh Steelers also survived the regular season, avoiding losing the AFC North to the Baltimore Ravens thanks to a wild Week 18 finish to go 10-7 and host this NFL Super Wild Card Weekend matchup. Pittsburgh's offense has been an issue at times this year, but that unit gets an upgrade from previous weeks with star receiver DK Metcalf back after a two-game suspension.

Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday, Jan. 12. The Texans are 3-point road favorites in the Texans vs. Steelers odds at DraftKings, and the Over/Under for total points is the lowest of the wild card slate at 39.5. Before making any Steelers vs. Texans picks of your own, make sure to look at the top NFL picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times.

Where to watch Texans vs. Steelers on Monday

When: Monday, Jan. 12
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Stream: Fubo
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Texans vs. Steelers betting preview

Odds: Texans -3, Over/Under 39.5

Both teams have gone 9-8 against the spread this year, with Houston covering in five of its last seven and Pittsburgh covering in four of its last five. The Texans have leaned to the Under this season after a slow start offensively, coupled with having the league's No. 2 scoring defense, while the Steelers are 9-8 to the Over, including three of its last five games.

Texans vs. Steelers SGP

  • Steelers +3
  • Over 39.5
  • Nico Collins anytime touchdown scorer

Bet it at DraftKings:

Model's Texans vs. Steelers score prediction, picks

The model is leaning Pittsburgh's way despite the Texans entering this game favored on the road. The Steelers cover in nearly 60% of simulations and win 50% of the time, returning value at +150 odds on the money line. The total of 39.5 is the lowest of the entire wild card slate, and the model has the Over hitting in roughly 51% of simulations.

Texans vs. Steelers score prediction: Texans 21, Steelers 20

Want more NFL playoff picks?

You've seen the model's best bets for Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every NFL playoff game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times.