Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y., (field turf, outdoors)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Bills by 3
Forecast: Mostly sunny with a 10 percent chance of rain. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50s.
Records: Titans (Overall: 2-4, AFC South: 0-1); Bills (Overall: 3-3, AFC East 0-2).
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec. 4, 2011: Titans 23, Bills 17; Nov. 15, 2009. Titans 41, Bills 17. Series record: Titans lead 27-16.
What matters: Both teams sorely need a win in the tight AFC Wild Card battle. The Titans will look to build momentum after last week’s 26-23 win over the Steelers. Tennessee has yet to win two straight this season. Coach Mike Munchak’s team needs to be more competitive on the road, where it is 0-3 and has been outscored 106-31.
Who matters: Chris Johnson. The All-Pro running back showed signs of breaking out of his early-season slump against Pittsburgh. Johnson hit the holes decisively and ran efficiently in gaining 91 yards on 19 carries. He will face a porous Bills’ run defense that allowed an average of 279 yards per game in consecutive losses to the Patriots and 49ers. The Bills are particularly susceptible to runs between the tackles.
Key matchups: LBs Colin McCarthy and Zac Diles vs. Bills RB C.J. Spiller; CB Alterraun Verner vs. Bills WR Steve Johnson. McCarthy earned AFC defensive player of the week honors after his performance in last season’s win at Buffalo. The Titans’ starting middle linebacker had 11 tackles, forced a fumble and recovered two fumbles. Spiller has been electrifying this season with a 7.6 yards-per-carry average and five runs of 20 yards or more. The Bills may use Johnson against the Titans as the Patriots did with Wes Welker in the opening week. Earlier this week, Verner said Johnson can be tough to defend on slants and comebacks.
Injuries of note: McCarthy missed practice this week with a sprained ankle and had his foot in a boot Friday. If McCarthy is out Sunday, Diles will likely receive the start. In a Week-4 loss at Houston, Diles had six tackles. DT Jurrell Casey (shoulder) missed the first two days of practice this week but participated on a limited basis Friday. Casey is listed as questionable. The Bills will be thin up front with two starters out. LT Cordy Glenn and RG Kraig Urbik will be sidelined with ankle injuries. Their replacements -- LT Chris Hairston and RG Chad Rinehart -- are both 6-5 or taller and 320 pounds or more.
Inside stuff: Matt Hasselbeck will be wary of Bills S Jairus Byrd, a safety he said has a reputation for deceptiveness. Byrd had two interceptions in last week’s win over the Cardinals, including one in overtime. On Byrd’s first interception, he cheated toward the sideline to make it appear he had coverage on Larry Fitzgerald over-the-top. Byrd then read QB Kevin Kolb’s eyes and jumped a route in the middle of the field on a pass intended for TE Jeff King. The Bills like to use Byrd in cover-3 with SS George Wilson closer to the line. On offense, the Titans’ scheme with its reliance on option routes could give the Bills’ fits. The Titans’ system compares favorably with a Patriots’ offense that scored touchdowns on six straight drives in a Week 4 win over the Bills.
Connections: Titans defensive coordinator Jerry Gray served in a similar capacity with the Bills from 2001-2005. Gray’s defense ranked second in the NFL in yards allowed and in the top 10 in points allowed in 2003 and '04. In 2007, DE Derrick Morgan played under Chan Gailey at Georgia Tech in the Bills’ coach’s final season with the Yellow Jackets. RB Jamie Harper and Spiller shared the same backfield at Clemson and are close friends. RG Leroy Harris and Bills DE Mario Williams were teammates at NC State.
Stat you should know: The Bills have allowed 8.1 yards per carry on runs toward the left sideline, according to NFLGSIS.com. Although the Titans rank in the middle of the pack in defending most runs, they are vulnerable in two areas -- runs behind the left tackle and behind the right guard. Tennessee ranks 29th in the NFL in defending both runs, according to NFLGSIS.com.
Record watch: If Hasselbeck has two touchdown passes on Sunday he will become the 32nd quarterback in NFL history to reach 200 in a career. Hasselbeck needs a touchdown to tie Phil Simms for 32nd all-time in career TDs.
Looking ahead: The Titans will return home in Week 8 to face Andrew Luck and the Colts. It will be the first of two straight games for Tennessee at LP Field.
Prediction: Titans 27, Bills 23.
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis on the Tennessee Titans, follow Matt Rybaltowski @CBSTitans.
