Super Bowl 2026 pick, best bet for Patriots vs. Seahawks: Could a blowout be brewing in Santa Clara?

SAN FRANCISCO -- All roads have led to this: Super Bowl LX. After one of the more bizarre and unpredictable seasons that I can personally remember covering the NFL, we have just one game left on the docket. It'll be the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots squaring off for the opportunity to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. 

To further highlight just how chaotic this year was, both Seattle and New England entered the regular season with 60-1 odds or longer to win the Super Bowl. If we apply that to the current odds for Super Bowl LXI, that would mean we'd see a game next year with the likes of the Pittsburgh Steelers (60/1) and Minnesota Vikings (60/1) going toe to toe for a championship. As for the matchup, it's also just the first Super Bowl since 1981 (49ers vs. Bengals) where both teams had preseason odds of 50-1 or longer. 

It's been a remarkable turnaround for both franchises, but only one will be able to leave the Bay Area as champions. Who will that be? Let's discuss. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

2025 record

Playoffs
ATS: 8-4
ML: 10-2

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 48-42-0
ATS: 118-151-3
ML: 167-104-1

Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots

• Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

If you've followed my picks throughout the year,  you know that I have been bullish on the Seahawks for quite a while. In my opening picks column in Week 1, I told you to parlay Seattle and Denver to make the playoffs, which they did (as the No. 1 seeds!). I also had Mike Macdonald as my Coach of the Year pick, and while that'll likely go to his Super Bowl adversary in Mike Vrabel, Macdonald has done a tremendous job making his team the most dominant club we've seen this postseason. 

The one thing that I continue to turn to when trying to form my pick for Super Bowl LX is the defenses. Sure, Drake Maye's ascent to an MVP candidate in Year 2 and Sam Darnold's continued renaissance will garner much of the headlines this week, but I think the defenses are what will end up telling the story of this game. 

On paper, both have been superb this postseason. I even wrote after watching New England throttle the Chargers in the Wild Card Weekend that if their defense continued to play at that level, they could be the biggest X factor in the playoffs. So far, they have been allowing just 8.7 points per game over these playoffs, which is the lowest since the 2000 Ravens. That sounds good on paper, but the eye test doesn't exactly tell the same story, specifically due to their opponents. 

Los Angeles was a flawed playoff contender as it was missing both of its starting offensive tackles, C.J. Stroud turned into a puddle in the divisional round, and the Broncos were forced to start backup Jarrett Stidham in the AFC Championship due to an injury to starter Bo Nix. New England isn't catching a break in this matchup against Seattle, which is locked and loaded as the best team the Patriots have seen this season, by a wide margin, and is averaging 36 points per game this postseason.

On the flip side, Seattle's defense is legit and possesses a unique challenge for a Patriots offense that has been in a recent slump. The Seahawks are top 10 in the NFL in pressure rate this season (including playoffs) and are third in total pressures. They do that despite being one of the least frequent blitzing teams in the NFL, meaning they can apply pressure by simply sending four. In turn, that'll allow them to have an extra man in coverage, which will make life difficult for Maye, who has been sacked five times in each of his three playoff games this year. The MVP contender may also not be 100% healthy, as he's been listed with a right shoulder injury.   

It's hard to imagine Maye and the Patriots' offense suddenly turning the tide in this Super Bowl against a Seattle defense that was the No. 1 scoring defense this season. Moreover, the No. 1 scoring defenses that have squared off against All-Pro quarterbacks (like Maye is) in the Super Bowl are 5-1 in the previous six matchups. Think Seattle wins this in a rather convincing fashion. 

Projected score: Seahawks 30, Patriots 17
The pick: Seahawks -4.5