Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
We have Week 8 kicking off tonight in Los Angeles, which might not be a good thing for the Vikings, because they haven't beaten the Rams in L.A. since 1992. The Vikings will be going into tonight's game after losing to the Lions in Week 7, which I'm only mentioning because every team that has faced the Lions this year has lost their next game by TWO SCORES. Apparently, the Lions are beating up on their opponents so badly that the team can't even function in its next game.
Anyway, we'll be previewing tonight's Vikings-Rams game in today's newsletter, plus we'll be ranking the seven teams that have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the bank. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.
1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Vikings at Rams
There's been some chatter this week that the Rams might look to trade Cooper Kupp, but we might have to throw that trade speculation out the window if the Rams (2-4) can upset the Vikings (5-1) tonight. If the Rams win, that will put them right back in the thick of the NFC West race, which might make them hesitant to dump any key players, but if they lose, they might be more motivated to become sellers as we head to the Nov. 5 trade deadline.
The Rams are going to have Kupp on the field tonight, and there's a chance that they'll also have Puka Nacua, which means this game could end up being closer than most people think.
Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into tonight:
- Why the Vikings can win: This could turn into a huge game for Aaron Jones. The Vikings running back will be going up against a Rams defense that's surrendering the third-most rushing yards per game in the NFL this year (151.7). The Rams are already bad at stopping the run and they might be even worse tonight since they'll likely be focused on slowing down Justin Jefferson. If the Vikings have a big game on the ground, that should open up the rest of their offense, which would almost certainly mean a victory for Minnesota.
- Why the Rams can win: Cooper Kupp is returning at the right time for the Rams and that's because Los Angeles will be facing a Vikings defense that has surrendered the THIRD-MOST passing yards per game in the NFL this year (260.3). With a savvy veteran like Matthew Stafford getting back his most reliable weapon in Kupp (and possibly Nacua, too), there's a very real chance that we could see Stafford put up some big numbers tonight.
You can get a full preview of the game from Cody Benjamin by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Aaron Jones OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-125 at Fanatics Sportsbook): Not only is Jones averaging 73.8 rushing yards per game this year, but he's gone over 90 yards in three of his past four games. On top of those two stats, he'll also be facing a Rams defense that surrenders more than 150 yards per game on the ground. The only mild concern with this prop is that Jones was on the injury report with a hamstring issue this week, so you'll have cross your fingers and hope he doesn't aggravate the injury.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Will Reichard OVER 7.5 points (-120 at BetMGM): The Vikings rookie kicker has scored at least 10 points in four of his past five games. In the past two weeks alone, Reichard has scored 11 points in each game. NFL coaches can sometimes be hesitant about using a rookie kicker, but the Vikings have full faith in Reichard, who has yet to miss a field goal this season (12/12). As a matter of fact, Reichard has the most field goal attempts this season without a miss, which is one reason why the over feels like a good play.
And in case you're wondering, my props are 19-14 on the season (9-6 on kicker props and 10-8 on all other props).
We also have a full betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.
And finally, here are our picks for the game.
PICKS FOR 'TNF'
Benjamin's pick: Vikings 26-22 over Rams
Prisco's pick: Vikings 27-17 over Rams
My pick: Rams 23-20 over Vikings
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here.
2. QB chaos: At least four teams will have a new starting signal-caller this week
It has been a wild week for quarterback news around the NFL: From Tua Tagovailoa's likely return to Andy Dalton's car accident, a lot has changed just since Monday. Right now, there are at least four teams who will be starting a QB who didn't start for them last week.
Let's take a look at the list:
- Panthers: Bryce Young. After spending the past five weeks on the bench, Young is getting his job back this week, but that's only happening Andy Dalton because got in a car accident. Dalton sprained his right thumb during Tuesday's accident, which means the Panthers will now be led by Young this week when they face the Broncos. Young went 0-2 to start the season before getting benched heading into Week 3. You can read more about Young's return here.
- Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa. As long as he gets medically cleared, Tua will be back on the field this week when the Dolphins play the Cardinals. Tua hasn't played since suffering a concussion against the Dolphins in Week 2. Tyreek Hill is so excited to have Tua back that the's thinking about taking his QB out to dinner. "I told him I've got to take him and his wife to dinner because I missed him so much. During Tua's four-game absence, Tyler Huntley (1-2) and Skylar Thompson (0-1) filled in.
- Raiders: Gardner Minshew. Between Minshew and Bryce Young, getting benched and then getting your job back due to a thumb injury seems to be a theme this week. Minshew got benched heading into Week 6, but is now getting his job back after Aidan O'Connell was placed on injured reserve this week due to a broken thumb.
- Browns: Jameis Winston. With Deshaun Watson out for the season, the next man up is Jameis. I'm actually curious to see what Winston can do in Cleveland. In his first start since 2022, he'll be going up against a Ravens defense that's surrendered the most passing yards per game in the NFL this year, so it's certainly possible that he could put up some big numbers.
In other QB news, it's looking like the Saints are going to stick with Spencer Rattler for one more week as Derek Carr continues to recover from his oblique injury. The rookie QB is 0-2 and will be looking to pick up the first win of his career in a game against the Chargers. Also, the Titans could be rolling with Mason Rudolph for another week. Will Levis is still dealing with a shoulder injury, which makes it likely that Rudolph will be the starter on Sunday in Detroit.
3. Ranking the seven teams that have a legit shot at winning the Super Bowl
Since we've now made it through seven weeks of the NFL season, Jeff Kerr decided to rank the seven teams that currently have the best shot of winning the Super Bowl this year, and I have bad news for everyone in Pittsburgh: The Steelers did not make the list. Even though the 5-2 Steelers are tied for the third-best record in the league, they didn't make the cut.
Let's check out the top-three teams on Kerr's list:
- 1. Chiefs (6-0). "The last remaining unbeaten team in the NFL are the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, who are getting mediocre play from Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs quarterback has a career worst in passing yards per game (231.5), passing touchdowns (6), interceptions (8), and passer rating (82.5) through seven weeks, yet they're still unbeaten. What's going to happen when Mahomes plays like the MVP-caliber quarterback he's shown throughout his career? The Chiefs do have DeAndre Hopkins as his newest wide receiver and will get Hollywood back at some point."
- 2. Lions (5-1). "The Lions began the season as one of the Super Bowl contenders in the NFC, and haven't disappointed. ... The NFC North leaders are getting MVP caliber play from Jared Goff, while boasting a top-five offense in points per possession (third at 2.75) and yards per possession (fourth at 36.9). Detroit's strength of victory sits at .531, third best in the NFL. The Lions are the team to beat in the NFC through seven weeks."
- 3. Ravens (5-2). "Baltimore has the top offense in football, raking second in points per possession (2.91) and first in yards per possession (42.6). The Ravens are first in the NFL in points per game (31.1), yards per game (461.4), yards per play (7.2), rush yards per game (210.9), net yards per attempt (8.8), and yards per carry (6.2). Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are on pace to combine for 3,000+ yards rushing. The Ravens are an offensive juggernaut right now, and their .588 strength of victory is second in the NFL. They'll be in the mix come late January."
Did the Texans make the list? Are the Bills on it? Did the Packers make the cut? If you want to see all seven teams that made Jeff's Super Bowl list, you'll have to check out his full story here.
4. Ranking the most unexpected NFL storylines heading into Week 8
Every year, the NFL gives us multiple surprises and this season has been no different. As we head into Week 8, Garrett Podell decided to take a look at the most unexpected storylines of the season so far.
1. Patrick Mahomes is playing mediocre football. "This season, Mahomes has the same amount of touchdown passes as New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (six) and one fewer than both Andy Dalton (seven) and Joe Flacco (seven), who has only played in three games. His six touchdowns/eight interceptions ratio is the worst among the NFL's 24 quarterback who have started all of their team's games this season."
2. Commanders are in first place in the NFC East. "Prior to the start of the 2024 season, it was common thought that the NFC East was a two-team division between the Cowboys and the Eagles, the last two division winners. However, the 2023 last-place finishing Commanders are crashing the party and out to a 5-2 start. That has them currently in first place and out to their best start since 2018. The reason why is because No. 2 overall draft pick quarterback Jayden Daniels is playing like he should be the second rookie ever to win an NFL MVP award alongside Hall of Fame running back Jim Brown (1957). He is the only quarterback in NFL history with a completion percentage of at least 75% (75.6%), 200 or more passing yards per game (201.4) and 50 or more rushing yards per game (53.1) in any seven-game span."
3. Sam Darnold looks like a franchise QB. "Sam Darnold has been known as a bust since being selected third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft by the Jets. ... He signed a one-year, $10 million contract in free agency this offseason to be a bridge/mentor for 10th overall pick J.J McCarthy, but when McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason, that opened for Darnold to have the entire 2024 season as his last chance to show he can be an NFL starter. Darnold has seized the moment by playing like a top-10 NFL quarterback through seven weeks of the 2024, and Minnesota is off to a 5-1 start."
Garrett ranked a total of five unexpected storylines, and you can check out his full list here.
5. Most impactful midseason trades of all time
There will likely be quite a few deals made around the NFL between now and the trade deadline on Nov. 5. As matter of fact, we've already seen some big names get dealt like Davante Adams, Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins. All three of those guys could end up having a huge impact with their new team.
With that in mind, Cody Benjamin decided to take a look at some of the most impactful midseason trades of all time. Let's take a look at three of the deals on his list:
- 2010: Seahawks acquire Marshawn Lynch from the Bills. "Banged up and disgruntled with the Buffalo Bills, Lynch went to Seattle for two mid-round picks and quickly restored -- then exceeded -- his first-round reputation. ... He became the centerpiece of the Seahawks' physical attack, eclipsing 1,200 rushing yards in each of the four subsequent seasons, and helping the team win Super Bowl XLVIII."
- 2017: 49ers acquire Jimmy Garoppolo from the Patriots. "Drafted as a potential successor to Tom Brady, Garoppolo was shipped to San Francisco for a second-rounder after three and a half years on the Patriots' bench. He quickly went 5-0 as Kyle Shanahan's starter, and then bounced back from an injury-shortened 2018 season to help guide the team to Super Bowl LIV in 2019."
- 2019: Rams acquire Jalen Ramsey from Jaguars. "A dynamic but disgruntled Jacksonville Jaguars star, the former No. 5 overall pick was shipped to Los Angeles for three picks, including two first-rounders. It was a steep price for the Rams to pay, but Ramsey instilled much-needed swagger into the team's remade secondary, validating an eventual big-money contract with a Super Bowl ring in 2021."
You can see Cody's full list of impactful trades here.
6. Extra points: Giants not planning to fire anyone, no matter how bad the season gets
It's been a busy week in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Brian Daboll expected to keep his job no matter how ugly 2024 gets. Daboll got a pretty solid vote of confidence on Wednesday from Giants owner John Mara. Although the Giants are 2-5 and could end up finishing with one of the worst records in the NFL, Mara isn't planning to fire anyone. "Obviously, we're all very disappointed with where we are right now, but I'm going to say one thing: We are not making any changes this season and I do not anticipate making any changes in the offseason either," Mara said, via ESPN. You can read more about Mara's comments here.
- Brandon Aubrey misses practice for unique reason. The Cowboys kicker missed practice on Wednesday due to JURY DUTY. Aubrey was selected to be on a 12-person jury for a felony assault case in Tarrant County, Texas. If you want the full details on this situation, you can check those out here.
- Packers bring in fired Jets coach. Two weeks after being fired by the Jets, it looks like Robert Saleh already (kind of) has a new job lined up. Saleh is good friends with Packers coach Matt LaFleur (LaFleur was the best man in Saleh's wedding) and it looks like Saleh is going to be helping out the Packers. For more on Saleh, be sure to click here.
- Texans sign former Pro Bowl linebacker. The Texans added some defensive depth on Wednesday with the signing of Devin White. The former All-Pro linebacker started the season with the Eagles, but he didn't play a single snap with the team before being cut two weeks ago. If he has anything left in the tank, he could help Houston, but it remains to be seen if that's the case. We've got a full breakdown of White's signing, and you can see that here.
- Titans make second trade. The DeAndre Hopkins deal wasn't the only one the Titans made on Wednesday. The team also shipped Ernest Jones IV off to Seattle in exchange for Jerome Baker and a 2025 fourth-round pick. You can check out the full details of the trade here.