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Say what you will about the NFC South, but the winner of the division hosts a home postseason game, and once you make the tournament, anything can happen. First place in the division is on the line on Sunday with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers tied for first at 7-7 on the season, and they'll meet twice in the final three weeks in matchups that will likely decide who makes the 2025 NFL playoffs. That first meeting comes on Sunday, and the SportsLine model projects Tampa Bay to win and cover as 3-point favorites on the road as one of its picks in a three-leg NFL parlay that pays nearly 6-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Tampa Bay has won four straight NFC South titles, including in each of Baker Mayfield's two years as the starter.

The model also sees value in backing the Lions (-7) against the Steelers, as well as Over 40.5 points in Saints vs. Jets to complete its DraftKings Week 16 NFL parlay. The Saints have scored at least 20 points in back-to-back weeks with the offense playing well under rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. The Jets have allowed 34 and 48 points over the last two weeks, making Over 40.5 points a top play to include for the model when building a Week 16 NFL parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 on a 52-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three Sunday NFL picks to include in a Week 16 NFL parlay at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

  • Buccaneers (-3) vs. Panthers (-108)
  • Jets vs. Saints: Over 40.5 total points (-110)
  • Lions (-7) vs. Steelers (-115)

Combining the model's three picks into an NFL parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +587 (risk $100 to win $587):

Buccaneers (-3) vs. Panthers (-108, DraftKings)

Tampa Bay was one of the best teams in the NFL over the first half of the season, opening 6-2, but they've lost five of their last six games to fall to 7-7 on the season. Three of those five losses came to the Patriots, Bills and Rams, three teams with Super Bowl possibilities, and maybe leaving Tampa Bay for this contest is exactly what the Bucs need. Tampa Bay lost to the Saints and Falcons at home over the last two weeks, but the Buccaneers also have a longer layoff to prepare after playing on Thursday Night Football. Carolina lost 20-17 to the Saints last week and has dropped two of three games. Tampa Bay has its full complement of receivers back, and given this game's head-to-head significance, the model projects a stronger performance from the four-time defending NFC South champions. The model projects Tampa Bay to cover in 54% of simulations.

Jets vs. Saints: Over 40.5 total points (-110, DraftKings)

No one will confuse either of these offenses with the NFL elite units, however, New Orleans' offense has performed better in recent weeks with Tyler Shough as QB1, scoring at least 20 points in back-to-back weeks. Now, the Saints will go against the third-worst scoring defense in the league with the Jets allowing 28.4 points per game, including 48 points to the Jaguars last week. The Jets scored 20 themselves with Brady Cook at quarterback, and Cook will start again on Sunday. The Over has hit in three straight New York games. The Over is also 9-5 in Jets games this season, as their underwhelming offense is factored into the over/under total, yet their games have often been higher-scoring than expected. That's a trend the model expects to continue, projecting the Over to hit in 62% of simulations. 

Lions (-7) vs. Steelers (-115, DraftKings)

The Lions and Steelers both enter at 8-6 on the season, but whereas the Steelers have a game lead in their division, the Lions enter the week 1.5 games out of the playoffs, given how strong the NFC is this season. This makes a home contest against the Steelers a near must-win if the Lions want to make the postseason. The Lions are coming off a 41-34 loss to the Rams, who could be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, after a 44-30 win over Dallas the week before. The Lions have the No. 1 scoring offense at 30.6 ppg this season, which could be too much firepower for the Steelers to keep up with. The model projects the Lions to cover in 52% of simulations.