Another year, another slow start for the San Francisco 49ers.
The defending NFC champions have been in this territory in recent years, having a .500 or worse record through the early stage of the season before rallying to garner one of the top seeds in the conference. This year, it feels different.
Perhaps the uncertainty of Christian McCaffrey's injury -- and how long he is actually out -- is playing a role. The 49ers have not had McCaffrey for a single game this season, finding a way to function without their best offensive player. There have been other injuries and internal factors that have affected the 49ers, who are off to a 2-3 start and don't have a single victory against a division or conference opponent.
Is the McCaffrey injury the key to the 49ers season? Or are there other issues why this team is off to a 2-3 start?
The blown 10-point leads
Kyle Shanahan has a history of blown 10-point leads as the play caller in all three of his Super Bowl losses. That has carried over into 2024, as the 49ers have blown two double-digit second half leads through the first five games of the season.
Of course both were to NFC West opponents. The 49ers led the Los Angeles Rams by 10 points in the fourth quarter before allowed 13 unanswered points to end the game and led the Arizona Cardinals by 13 points at halftime before going scoreless in the second half and losing.
The 49ers have two blown 10+ point leads in the second half this season, while the rest of the NFL has two combined. They are the first team since the 2020 Atlanta Falcons with multiple losses holding a 10+ point lead in the fourth quarter over the first five games of a season. That Falcons team missed the playoffs.
San Francisco is 23rd in the NFL in fourth quarter scoring (4.4 points per game), while ranking 29th in third down conversion rate allowed (50%) and 25th in yards per play allowed (5.6). The 49ers just have to finish games.
The red zone offense
This is where missing McCaffrey hurts. The 49ers are 30th in red zone conversion percentage this season (40.9%) and 31st in goal-to-go percentage (50%). Compared to last season, San Francisco was first in red zone conversion percentage (67.2%) and fourth in goal-to-go percentage (82.9%).
McCaffrey led the NFL with 18 red zone touchdowns last season, and his presence is missed. Brock Purdy is still 17 of 30 (56.7%) with five touchdowns to zero interceptions in the red zone, as his 105.3 passer rating is 15th in the NFL. Last seaosn, Purdy was 45 of 69 (69.3%) with 19 touchdowns and two interceptions in the red zone, as his 109.6 passer rating was first in the league.
The completion percentage is down with no McCaffrey, but Purdy is still finding ways to make plays. So why can't San Francisco score in the red zone? The 49ers are averaging 2.5 yards per carry with four touchdowns rushing the football in the red zone through five games, compared to 3.0 yards per carry and nine rushing scores in the red zone last season in the same stretch.
Having McCaffrey makes a difference.
McCaffrey's impact on Brock Purdy
Purdy is still having a good season without McCaffrey. The 49ers quarterback is completing 65.6% of his passes for 1,374 yards with six touchdowns to four interceptions with a 95.3 passer rating. Notice the word "good."
This is Purdy's lowest completion rate (65.3%) in a season in his young career. The touchdown rate is down from 7.0% last season to 3.8% this season while the yards per attempt are down from 9.6 last season to 8.8 this season (and Purdy still leads the league). The passer rating is also down from 113.0 to 95.8.
Purdy's 1,374 passing yards are fourth in the NFL. His 8.8 yards per attempt are first and average pass distance of 10.2 is second. So how is missing McCaffrey impacting his game?
The 49ers went from first in yards after catch per completion in 2023 to 31st so far in 2024. Purdy averaged 5.3 completions to running backs last season to just 2.8 this season as the pass yards per game fell from 42.4 to 28.4. Purdy had nine touchdowns to three interceptions targeting running backs last season compared to zero touchdowns to one interception.
On passes 10-or-fewer yards downfield, Purdy's completion rate dropped from 75% to 67% and the yards per attempt dipped from 6.8 to 5.3. Purdy has three touchdowns to three interceptions completing passes of 10-or-fewer yards compared to 17 touchdowns and five interceptions last year.
Purdy has been great since he's arrived in the NFL, but that was with McCaffrey. Without McCaffrey, Purdy is just good.
Injuries
The 49ers have a Super Bowl window and have been running it back with aging veterans. Whether the 49ers have been testing fate with "Father Time" or not, injuries are a part of the NFL. The 49ers have experienced several that have impacted their team.
Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (triceps) and running back Elijah Mitchell (hamstring) are out for the season. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) is still on the PUP list from his injury in the Super Bowl. Running back Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) hasn't played a game. Guard Jon Feliciano (knee) is on injured reserve, same with cornerback Ambry Thomas (forearm). Safety Talanoa Hufanga (wrist) and kicker Jake Moody (ankle) are also injured for an extended period of time. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle have also missed games.
Every team has injuries, but the 49ers have been significantly banged up throughout the year. Their depth has significantly been tested.
Slow starts
This isn't the first slow start the 49ers have experienced under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco started 3-5 in 2021 and finished 10-7, reaching the conference championship game. The 49ers started 3-4 and traded for Christian McCaffrey, finishing 13-4 and reaching the conference championship game. They started 5-3 last season and ended up 12-5, reaching the Super Bowl.
The 49ers are 14-15 in games 1-though-8 over the last four seasons. From games 9-through-17, they are 23-4. Injuries and no McCaffrey, they still aren't the benefit of the doubt of being a second-half team -- and likely will get it right again while making a run.
San Francisco doesn't have a division nor conference win, but the 49ers are also only a game behind in the NFC West. No team is running away with that division.
The 49ers have built their reputation of thriving late in the season. The course shouldn't reverse based on another slow start.
