In the second of two Week 4 "Monday Night Football" games, the Detroit Lions play host to the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle is one of the league's surprising unbeaten teams, and will reside in first place in the NFC West no matter the result on Monday night. Detroit is 2-1 after playing three consecutive one-score games, and doesn't seem to have hit its stride just yet.
This matchup features two of the NFL's youngest and most interesting head coaches in Dan Campbell and Mike Macdonald, each of whom appears at the forefront of the analytics and aggressiveness waves in the league. They're a fascinating contrast in leadership style and personality, though, and the way the teams execute on the field is different as well.
Will the Seahawks continue their surprising start, or will the Lions capture a victory at home? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch
Date: Monday, Sept. 30 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
Channel: ABC/ESPN+ | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Lions -3.5; O/U 46.5 (via SportsLine consensus odds)
When the Seahawks have the ball
The big thing to watch out for here is whether the Seahawks can keep Geno Smith adequately protected -- and specifically, whether they can keep Aidan Hutchinson away from him. Despite having played one fewer game than almost everyone in the NFL, Hutchinson leads the league with 25 pressures and 6.5 sacks. His 24.3% pressure rate, per Tru Media, is also the highest in the NFL.
Unlike in previous seasons, Hutchinson has split his time relatively equally rushing off the left and right sides of the defensive line; but it wouldn't be surprising to see him primarily come from the left here so that he can rush against Seahawks right tackle Stone Forsythe, who has already allowed 8 pressures on 104 pass-blocking snaps, per Pro Football Focus.
Seattle's more modernized offense under new coordinator Ryan Grubb features a significantly higher dose of 11 personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 wide receivers) than in years past, which helps get all of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the field together. The Seahawks rank sixth in the league in 11 personnel usage (76.3%); under former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, they ranked 21st (59.9%) from 2021 through 2023.
When Smith looks downfield, he'll see Metcalf and Lockett covered primarily by Carlton Davis, with JSN working against Amik Robertson and/or Brian Branch in the slot. Despite his paltry touchdown totals, Smith has been balling through the first three games of the season, completing nearly 75% of his passes at an average of 7.6 yards per attempt. If he can stay upright long enough to find his men downfield, he will dot them with pinpoint-accurate throws.
Seattle could benefit from getting Kenneth Walker III back for this game, and perhaps creating some more splash plays with the run. Zach Charbonnet filled in adequately in Walker's absence with an oblique injury, but he's also averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on the season and has a long run of only 13 yards. Walker is a big-play threat, despite his inconsistency on a down-to-down basis in terms of success rate.
Meanwhile, it's important for Detroit's defense to maintain its early-season successes. Last year, the Lions seemed like a much-improved unit on this side of the ball early on, only to fall apart over the second half of the year. That came back to bite them when allowing the 49ers to make a second-half comeback in the NFC title game. Adding pieces to the secondary (Davis, Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw) is supposed to take this group to the next level over the course of this season.
When the Lions have the ball
Detroit's offense has been surprisingly muted so far this season, but really only in the scoring department. The Lions rank fourth in the NFL in total yards and second in first downs, but they're only 16th in points. That owes to their paltry 38.5% red-zone touchdown rate, which ranks 29th in the league. They scored a touchdown on 64.1% of red-zone trips last season, the NFL's third-best mark.
It's surprising that they haven't had more red-zone success, though, considering how well David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have run the ball behind the NFL's premier offensive line.
Montgomery is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has an obscene 62.7% rushing success rate, while Gibbs is at 5.2 yards a pop with a 57.5% success rate. They're combining for 146 yards per game on the ground, which is more than all but six entire teams. Seattle's defense has been about league average against the run this year, allowing 4.4 yards per carry (16th), and an average 1.53 yards before contact (18th) and 2.89 yards after contact (15th). The Lions will be without star center Frank Ragnow in this game, though, and could shuffle the offensive line a bit, perhaps with Graham Glasgow shifting over to center. It'll be interesting to that how that affects their ability to run it down teams' throats.
We all know that the Detroit run game feeds into the play-action passing attack, and Jared Goff is 23 of 32 for 309 yards after executing a play fake this year. He's tied for seventh in the NFL in EPA per dropback on those throws despite having yet to throw a touchdown, according to Tru Media. He could see some tough matchups downfield in this game, though, with Devon Witherspoon likely seeing the primary coverage responsibilities against Amon-Ra St. Brown and occasionally Sam LaPorta (who is banged up coming off a sprained ankle). Jameson Williams will see a lot of Tariq Woolen and Tre Brown, who are marginally easier to beat through the air.
Keeping pressure out of Goff's face is of paramount important, though. We've seen throughout his career that when he's well protected, Goff can let it rip with the best of them; but when he sees defenders in front of him -- and especially right in his lap in the middle of the pocket -- he can struggle. Seattle leads the NFL with a 44.2% pressure rate this season (thanks, Mike McDonald!) despite not really employing a star pass rusher, and if the Seahawks can muddy Goff's pocket, that can make things difficult for Goff.
Prediction: Lions 24, Seahawks 20
Detroit gets the benefit of playing at home here, and the underlying offensive numbers for the Lions paint a picture of a more successful unit than the one we've seen so far. If they are able to keep pressure out of Goff's face, they should be able to move the ball even against a surprisingly-effective Seahawks defense. This one should be close, but we'll roll with the home team to come away with a win.
Josh Nagel, who is on a 25-11 ATS roll on Seahawks games, has released his best bets for the "Monday Night Football'' game between the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions. We can tell you he's leaning Over on the point total. find out who he's backing against the spread right here.
