In two seasons, Philadelphia Eagles coach Chip Kelly has done some impressive things with his cutting-edge offense and innovative ways, finishing second in total offense in 2013 and fifth last season.
The Eagles were fourth in scoring offense in 2013 with 442 points and then rose to third last season with 474 points, 12 behind league-leading Green Bay.
Most impressive is Kelly achieving those numbers without a real fit playing quarterback for his offense. Nick Foles, the current version of Michael Vick and Mark Sanchez are not ideal for what Kelly needs in his quarterback.
That's why making a deal to trade up and get Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, who played for Kelly with the Ducks, is something the Eagles must consider and attempt to do. It's what I would do.
Make the deal.
We all know the value of the franchise quarterback in the NFL. Sustainable success comes with one. It's why Tom Brady won a Super Bowl 13 years ago, and was able to win another this season without one offensive player on the roster from that first ring-winning team.
I am not saying Mariota is Brady. They aren't close to being alike. One is a pure pocket passer who was taken in the sixth round. The other is a spread quarterback who will need transitioning to the NFL if he winds up anywhere other than Philadelphia -- and is a sure-fire first-round pick.
Mariota is a dual-threat quarterback, the kind Kelly needs to make his offense really go. Kelly has said all the right things about Foles and others running his system for the Eagles, but anybody who watched Kelly's Oregon teams knows they aren't good fits. They don't have the ability to run off the read-option plays. That limits the offense.
Mariota can run, and with his speed he does it well. I know he will have to adjust some on the next level, such as not running as much, but his threat as a runner will make the offense better.
If Kelly is hell-bent on playing his style, it makes sense to get Mariota.
To do so, Kelly, who now calls the shots as the football decision-maker for the Eagles, will have to make a bold move. It will mean unloading a big haul of draft picks to make it a reality.
The Eagles have the 20th pick in the first round. They would likely have to move between No. 3 and No. 6 to land Mariota. Based on the draft trade chart, which isn't the trade law but is used as a gauge, the third pick counts for 2,200 points on the trade value chart, while the sixth is worth 1,600 points.
Philadelphia's 20th pick is worth 850 points. That would mean a deal up would need an additional 1,200 to 1,350 to move up to No. 3 and 800 or so to move to No. 6. Based on the chart, the Eagles would have to give up that 20th pick, next year's first-rounder (I used 25, which would be a value of 720), their second-round pick this year -- No. 52, with a value of 390 points -- and a third next year (No. 89, with a value of 145 points).
That adds up to 2,095 points, so it's in the ballpark to get to the third spot and enough to get to No. 4. It could be amended based on the negotiation, but you get the idea.
That would seem like a ton, especially for a team with holes on defense. The Eagles finished 29th and 28th in total defense the past two seasons.
But franchise quarterbacks cure your ills and average ones expose them. Mariota might not be a great fit in a lot of offenses, therefore the ability to cure ills is at question with some offenses, but in Kelly's system I think he would help overcome a lot of issues.
Mariota isn't my style of quarterback, but he certainly is Kelly's, which is why the deal makes sense.
We can look at the past five drafts for an idea of what the Eagles would be giving up if they made the bold move to go from No. 20 to No. 3. I looked at all the players taken with the 20th pick, the 25th pick, the 52nd pick and the 89th pick from the past five drafts.
What I found was one Pro Bowl player, and that was Chicago Bears guard Kyle Long, who has been to the past two. That's it.
There have been some good players selected in those spots, including rising New England stars Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower, but on the whole it's a group that would have one lean toward being more inclined to make the deal to get Mariota.
Here's a look at the five years of the four spots:
Past 5 years: Drafted No. 20 overall | ||||
Year | Player | Pos. | Team | Comment |
2014 | Brandin Cooks | WR | Saints | Caught 53 passes for 550 yards and 3 TDs as a rookie |
2013 | Kyle Long | G | Bears | Named to two Pro Bowls, considered one of NFL's top young linemen |
2012 | Kendall Wright | WR | Titans | Has caught a lot of passes, but wouldn't be considered a top-15 receiver |
2011 | Adrian Clayborn | DE | Bucs | Injuries limited him to 35 games in 4 seasons (1 game in 2014). Has 13 sacks and is a free agent this spring |
2010 | Kareem Jackson | CB | Texans | After a slow start, he has come on and played well last season; is a free agent |
Past 5 years: Drafted No. 25 overall | ||||
Year | Player | Pos. | Team | Comment |
2014 | Jason Verrett | CB | Chargers | He flashed early, starting four games; lost for the season (shoulder) in Oct. |
2013 | Xavier Rhodes | CB | Vikings | Coming off an impressive season, potential Pro Bowl player |
2012 | Dont's Hightower | LB | Patriots | Became big part of Pats D when Jerod Mayo went down; rising star |
2011 | James Carpenter | G | Seahawks | Drafted as a tackle but moved inside; solid, nothing more |
2010 | Tim Tebow | QB | Broncos | Out of NFL; had one magical season as Denver's starter |
Past 5 years: Drafted No. 52 overall | ||||
Year | Player | Pos. | Team | Comment |
2014 | Troy Niklas | TE | Cardinals | Injured as a rookie, but Cards expecting him to be a big part of the offense |
2013 | Jamie Collins | LB | Patriots | Emerged as a game-changer with ability to cover and run; will be a Pro Bowl player |
2012 | Zach Brown | LB | Titans | Made 28 starts 1st two seasons but tore a pectoral muscle in Week 1 of 2014 (15 DNPs); solid player |
2011 | Marvin Austin | DT | Giants | Tore pectoral muscle as a rookie and been with 3 teams since; with Denver and had a solid season |
2010 | Jason Worilds | OLB | Steelers | Good pass rusher, a free agent after recording 7.5 sacks in 2014 |
Past 5 years: Drafted No. 89 overall | ||||
Year | Player | Pos. | Team | Comment |
2014 | Chris Watt | G | Chargers | Drafted as a guard, played some there but forced to start at center because of O-line injuries |
2013 | Brennan Williams | T | Texans | Out since (micro-fracture surgery on knee) 2013; cut after failing a physical last summer and Jags just signed him |
2012 | Akiem Hicks | DT | Saints | Has become a D-line starter; good player with lots of potential |
2011 | Shareece Wright | CB | Chargers | Became a starter after Verrett was hurt; just OK and is a free agent |
2010 | Armanti Edwards | WR | Panthers | Ex-college QB played two years for Carolina; released in Oct. 2013, cut by two more teams and didn't play in '14 |
There are some good players, but game-changing players? No.
So let's say the Eagles attempted a deal to go up in 2010, with the Eagles giving up the four picks I mentioned above to go from No 20 to No. 3. This would have been the list of players taken with the picks they gave up: Corner Kareem Jackson, guard James Carpenter (25th in 2011), linebacker Jason Worilds (52nd in 2010) and corner Shareece Wright (89th in 2011). Does that group plus a questionable quarterback situation put the Eagles over the top? No way.
Is that haul worth giving up for a franchise quarterback who could be around for the next decade carrying the offense? I think it is.
Now the haul would have been more bountiful in other years using the players associated with the picks above. And some will say they would have done a better job with the picks, but we know how that works out. So I don't think any combination would offset what a player like Mariota would mean to the Eagles -- if he's as good as some expect.
To get Robert Griffin III in the No. 2 spot, a pick obtained from the Rams, the Washington Redskins gave up their No. 6 overall pick in 2012, a 2013 first-round pick (No. 22), a 2014 first-round pick (No. 2) and a 2012 second-round pick (No. 39). That was a horrible trade because RG3 hasn't lived up the hype, but what if the same deal had been made to get Andrew Luck, who went first that year? Still singing the same tune?
Even with the bounty of players the Rams acquired with those picks -- some good ones for sure -- I still haven't seen them in the playoffs. Why? Quarterback play.
If the Eagles keep their picks this year and don't make the deal, when will Kelly get his ideal quarterback, next year or the year after that? Who knows if there is one? They know Mariota is the guy, the perfect fit. They sure don't know that about Nick Foles. Then again, maybe they do.
So make the deal, Chip -- and then let us settle in to watch the show.