I've been critical of the Colts' free agent approach in the past, with over-aggressive early moves reaping little dividends. But consider me among those intrigued by what they have done in the first few days of the league year this time around. I'm more optimistic this year, while fully cognizant of the advanced age of many of their targets and the inherent risks of NFL free agency in general.
The Colts are operating in a window in which their best young players -- Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen -- are making a pittance. Nothing. Insignificant yearly salaries on their rookie contracts, all a product of the most recent collective bargaining agreement. That's going to change, and change massively, in the next 6-18 months.
Yet here they sat, in March, with a boatload of cap space and an owner willing to spend it, wanting to go about it in a more calculated way than in the past (it's rare that I can instantly recall too many specifics of contracts in a league with thousands of transactions, but the Colts giving LaRon Landry $10M in the first year of a free agent deal in 2013 is something I'll never forget).
And while the age of guys like Andre Johnson, Frank Gore and Trent Cole gives me pause, the reality is these are very short-term deals, no matter what the macro contract totals look like, and it allows Indianapolis to pair some strong veteran leaders at positions of need with its bright young core. Does it mask the potential holes on the roster? No. I'm still weary of the offensive line and still unsure of them having enough natural pass rushers.
But Luck does plenty of that by himself, and the way these deals operate allowed the Colts to beat out some other contenders for these potential Hall of Famers. Gore nearly signed with the Eagles. Seven other teams wanted Johnson, with San Diego among those pushing hardest. And Cole, not a Hall of Famer but a guy with a helluva career, had free-agent visits lined up all over the place. But the Colts landed all three, and without having big money hanging over their heads by the time the huge increases kick in for Luck, et al.
Did the Colts overpay? Perhaps in some cases, but that's the nature of the game this time of year in the first 48 ours of free agency. The key, especially for contending teams with a payroll that's about to jump, is to do so in a manner that does not significantly handicap you into the future. Because once you have a quarterback making $25M a year and a receiver making $12M a year, it becomes increasingly difficult to swing and miss on expensive free agents and not feel the pinch right away.
Running back has been a big problem in Indy for a while, both in terms of production and in having someone to set that physical, thumping style that GM Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano desire. Their goal when taking over a roster filled with small but fast guys was to build more of a monster on both sides of the ball, and while they still need work in the trenches on both sides, having a powerful and respected back leading the way makes sense. Gore's deal in all likelihood will be $8.5M for two years -- $4M a year is where I figured his best market would be -- with $7.5M of that money payable between now and next March. If it goes horribly south, they could part with Gore in 2016 despite his roster bonus ($3M) for next year already being guaranteed, and, again, it would have cost them $7.5M for one year of service.
Andre Johnson's deal is structured similarly. He gets $7.5M for 2015 and has a $3M roster bonus for 2016 become fully guaranteed this March. So, like Gore, if it ends up being a disaster he pockets $3M next March to depart (and the thinking would be he gets something on the open market it would offset the $3M they owe him). Having a stud, true professional wideout to help set an example for oft-troubled former CFL star Duron Carter, who was signed this offseason, can't be a bad thing, and the Colts have no shortage of weapons, on paper, for Luck to utilize.
Cole is going to make at least $7M in 2015, but the Colts can get out of 2016 if they wish, owing him just $1M, and offsets could/would render that a non-issue.
Again, these prices are a little steep, but the Colts are doing it in a timeframe in which they can still afford to do so. And as much as having a coach like Pagano helps recruiting -- players in general love him and his guys from The U, like Gore and Johnson, adore him -- and having Luck is a big allure, as well, it's going to ultimately take some coin and the way the Colts are doling it out makes sense.
Do I believe these moves put the Colts over the top? No. But coming at a time when the Broncos, Ravens, Patriots and Steelers have had to wave bye-bye to no shortage of high-end, veteran talent, it certainly should help make them more formidable in 2016. They should be tougher, mentally and physically, and the culture of that locker room will only continue to grow thanks to having these kind of presences on board, and the motivation for guys like Johnson, Gore and Cole to get a ring before it's all over can't be minimized as well.
If Grigson can bolster his lines in the draft (adding Todd Herremens and Kendall Langford is a start), then perhaps the Colts make a Super Bowl leap. And if not, this flurry of activity this week shouldn't preclude future attempts, even when Luck becomes the highest-paid player in the history of the game.
Spiller or Harvin in New England?
I Can't wait to see which smart, young, dynamic playmaker takes New England's money and revitalizes his career. The Patriots are looking for someone to replace the role of Shane Vereen and make no mistake -- Bill Belichick has a certain dollar figure in mind and he won't budge. But whether its C.J. Spiller or Percy Harvin, someone should take him up on his offer even if it's a little under what some others might pay.
You don't think Spiller could catch 70 balls out of the backfield with the New England? You don't think Josh McDaniels would utilize his talents fully? Of course he'd have to stay healthy -- he'd have to finally do that anywhere -- but the Pats have a history of buying cheap on guys and then letting them go for big bucks elsewhere the next year, and either of these guys would fit the mold. Do your prove-it contract there, rehab your rep (in the case of Harvin), and set yourself up for a big bite at the apple 12 months from now. Buffalo or New England? To me it's a no brainer.
Now, if you want to throw Baltimore or Green Bay or San Diego or New Orleans in the mix, then I could see where you are coming from. An offense like that with quarterbacks like those, and I get it. And I'm not one to discount the import of money -- it almost always rules the day and rightfully so. But especially in the case of Harvin, who for a few years was one of the five highest-paid in the NFL at his position, I'm discounting that factor now in order to maximize on it later. Spiller has yet to cash in, playing out his rookie contract, but he's missed so much time and has been misused at other times, and with the Pats lacking a feature back and their interest sincere, I might be inclined to go that route as well.
More observations
• I'll believe that Chip Kelly is entirely out of the Marcus Mariota sweepstakes when I see another team select him. Until then, knowing how highly he thinks of the kid and knowing how he is capable to doing the unconventional and not giving a bleep about what anyone thinks about it, I have a hard time ruling it out entirely. I don't care how many quarterbacks he already has and how much money they're making.
• Look for the Ravens to be players on the receiver market once it comes into better focus. Still waiting on guys like Dwayne Bowe and Mike Wallace to be cut; Baltimore's preference is always guys who have been released, so signing them doesn't hurt the team's status for compensatory draft picks, and they generally come cheaper that way, too.
• The Jets remain intent on adding a corner and a safety, and it would be utterly shocking if Antonio Cromartie is not the corner at this point and they got back into the running for safety Ron Parker as well. They aren't done spending yet.
