Why the Rams have a great shot to upset the Cardinals on Monday night

The Rams have covered in seven of the last nine meetings with the Cardinals

By Tom Fornelli

Dec 13, 2021 at 4:17 pm ET • 6 min read

Whenever you see a trade rumor that doesn't make a lot of sense, try to figure out why that rumor is now out there and who it would benefit. For instance, there was a report Monday that the Lakers are interested in trading for Ben Simmons. It's a rumor that makes sense from the "LeBron is just trying to accumulate every big name out there so he can chill and not play during the regular seaason" perspective of it all, but it makes little to no sense from a basketball perspective.

You see, as our Sam Quinn pointed out, it's a trade that's nearly impossible to pull off. The Lakers would either have to send LeBron, Anthony Davis or Russell Westbrook to Philadelphia to make it work under the cap rules -- which makes little sense for either side -- or send roughly eight players to Philly to match the salaries. So why is this a rumor even if it makes no sense logically or logistically?

Well, Ben Simmons is represented by Klutch Sports and Rich Paul. The same agent who represents ... both LeBron and Anthony Davis. Now, he doesn't represent Westbrook, so maybe it's possible that the Lakers would entertain Russ for Ben -- though I don't think the Sixers would -- or maybe Klutch Sports is trying to drum up some trade interest in Ben Simmons! Simmons still hasn't played this season and does not want to be in Philadelphia, so perhaps Rich Paul believes if he floats the idea that the Lakers are interested, it could force another contender into action to make a move for his client.

In other words, believe half of what you see and even less of what you hear. Unless it's the following stories. Everything in these is 100% true.

We've got an important football game to watch tonight, so let's figure out a bunch of different ways to bet on it.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏈 Rams at Cardinals, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Rams +2.5 (-110): The Cardinals are one of the best teams in the NFL and a genuine threat to win the Super Bowl. They've been able to overcome injuries on both sides of the ball, including to key players like Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. The enter tonight with the best record in the NFL, locked in a dogfight with the Bays Tampa and Green for the top seed in the NFC. I don't tell you all of this because you don't know it. I tell you this because I'm picking the Rams to cover, and I don't want Cardinals fans yelling at me about how I don't respect their team.

I do! I respect the hell out of them, but I think this spread should be closer than it is. The Rams have been pretty good this season too, even if their performance has dipped a bit in recent weeks.

When we look back at the previous meeting, which Arizona won 37-20 in Los Angeles, the game was closer than the score suggests. The Rams turned the ball over twice in the first half, including a Sony Michel fumble that gave the Cardinals the ball at the LA 26. A few plays later, the Cardinals were scoring to make it 21-10, and the Rams spent the rest of the game trying to dig out of that hole.

And they did a decent job of it! The Cardinals finished the game with 465 yards of offense and averaged 6.2 yards per play. The Rams finished with 401 yards and averaged 6.3 yards per play. In other words, the performances were similar, but Arizona ran more plays thanks to those turnovers.

The Rams also averaged 5.3 yards per carry in the run game then, and I expect them to lean a bit heavier on that tonight. If the Arizona defense has a weak spot, it's stopping the run. Arizona ranks 27th in the NFL in success rate against the run and 29th in yards allowed per rush. I'm expecting a heavy dose of Sony Michel tonight to try and keep the Cardinals offense off the field, and it should be effective, so I'm taking the points.

Key Trend: The Rams have covered in seven of the last nine meetings.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's R.J. White is 36-21-1 in his last 58 ATS picks involving the Rams, and he has a pick for tonight's game available too.

💰 Other Monday Night Football bets

The Pick: Kyler Murray Over 26.5 yards rushing (+100) -- The Rams are one of the most zone-heavy teams in pass coverage on the season. They've been in a zone coverage 77.1% of the time, and only the Raiders (79.9%) use the zone more often. But the Rams might be first if not for the first game against the Cardinals. In that 37-20 loss, the Rams were in zone only 54.7% of the time, and for a good reason.

Kyler Murray kills zone coverages, particularly this season, as he has a passer rating of 117.9 against the zone and is averaging 9.97 yards per attempt with a 77.8% completion rate. So the Rams play more man against him to slow that down, but the problem with playing man against a mobile QB is that it can give them more opportunities to scramble. Murray finished the first game with 39 yards rushing, and even if his overall rushing yardage is down this season, he did just rush for 59 yards against Chicago last weekend, so at even odds, I like the value we're getting here.

Key Trend: Murray rushed for 39 yards on six carries in the first meeting.

The Pick: Cooper Kupp any time TD (-150) -- While I expect the Rams will lean on their ground game to control the clock tonight, that doesn't mean they're going to ignore their greatest red zone weapon. Cooper Kupp not only leads the Rams with 24 targets, 16 receptions and nine touchdowns inside the red zone, but only Tampa Bay's Chris Godwin has more red-zone targets and receptions than he does -- and nobody has more red zone touchdowns.

This is a good matchup for Kupp, as the Cardinals' red zone defense does a nice job of taking away tight ends and running backs in the red zone but has struggled against receivers. Arizona has allowed 12 red zone touchdowns to receivers this season. Only the Colts, Giants and Falcons have given up more.

Key Trend: Nobody has caught more red zone touchdowns this season than Cooper Kupp.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Model has shared its favorite prop bets for tonight's Monday Night Football game.

🏀 Tonight's Parlay

We're crossing the streams in tonight's parlay! We've got two NBA games as well as two college games, and between them we've got a parlay paying +141.