Wild Card Weekend Monday Night Football betting guide: Best bets, props, prediction for Texans vs. Steelers
CBS Sports NFL expert Will Brinson breaks down his top plays for Pittsburgh and Houston's wild-card matchup
What a weekend of football that was! The Chargers vs. Patriots game might leave a little bit of a sour taste in the mouth, even if it was a close game for the majority of the contest. The other four games were absolutely electric, though. There's now nine teams left ahead of Steelers vs. Texans on Monday Night Football and, man, the field is wide open.
Only eight will remain after Pittsburgh vs. Houston, which could be a bit of a slugfest, so let's cautiously make some picks for this matchup.
Make sure and check out our Early Edge NFL picks show on Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network to get you primed for the Divisional Round.
Best bets for Monday Night Football
Steelers +3 vs. Texans
Bet on the Steelers to cover at DraftKings with the DraftKings promo code:
This line has dipped a half point to a more "fair" value of an even 3 on the Steelers, but the juice indicates it could move even more, meaning there's plenty of market sentiment towards Pittsburgh in this spot.
I think it makes sense. The Steelers are far from a great team, but Houston is just as flawed, particularly on offense. The Steelers have been up and down on defense at best this year, but some of their most "up" games came towards the end of the season as they managed to win four of their final five and steal the AFC North.
T.J. Watt is back in the fold and Cameron Heyward is currently playing like a man possessed on defense. The Texans will want to run the ball a ton and take some shots to Nico Collins -- if Pittsburgh can contain him in the passing game, I think they can really limit what the Texans do on offense.
Defensively, the Texans might be the best unit in football. But I tend to think Pittsburgh's offense could play well with what Houston does. The Steelers aren't winging it around -- at all -- and that effectively neutralizes the Texans' biggest strength in their cornerbacks. There will be some shots to D.K. Metcalf down the field, but I doubt Aaron Rodgers takes too many looks his way.
Instead, Pittsburgh will be methodical and dink and dunk to running backs and tight ends while trying to run the ball. In a game that could end with a lower score than Sunday night's, I absolutely want the home team catching points, even against a great defense.
Pittsburgh is absolutely live to win this game.
Monday Night Football player props
Kenneth Gainwell Over 4.5 receptions
Bet on Gainwell having a busy night at DraftKings:
Going back to old reliable here, and it's an easy play, even with the juice. I think Gainwell's receptions prop has major ladder potential in this game, as the Steelers have found their most success on offense when they're willing to dump the ball off to their second running back and let him work in the passing game.
It keeps pressure off Rodgers, it forces the defense to stay on its heels and opens the passing game. Passing to Gainwell has been wildly effective.
In the Steelers' four wins down the stretch, Gainwell had eight, five, seven and six catches, respectively, and just three in their loss to Cleveland. Maybe Metcalf's return tampers this a bit in terms of targets, but I doubt it.
Gainwell is kind of the engine for the Steelers offense right now and he should get plenty of work, even against an elite defense.
Nico Collins Over 69.5 receiving yards
Bet on Collins to hit his Over at DraftKings:
Collins will be the focal point of the offense... but he'll also be the main target of the defense. Pittsburgh expects to keep him from blowing up in this spot and I wouldn't be surprised if Collins sees plenty of double teams.
I'm just willing to bet on his playoff history, which is elite. In four playoff games, he's failed to break this number just once and is averaging 92 yards per game with two touchdowns in those matchups.
Collins has garnered 33 targets in four playoff games, because C.J. Stroud knows where his bread gets buttered. I'd expect several deep shots and plenty of Collins being peppered down the sideline if the game is tight.
Anytime touchdown scorer picks
Dalton Schultz anytime TD
Bet on anytime TD props at DraftKings:
The Steelers have struggled against tight ends this year (giving up the fourth-most touchdowns to the position on the year) and Schultz is one of Stroud's favorite targets, particularly when the field is condensed in the red zone.
Schultz hit a lull midseason but has been heavily involved down the stretch, getting 22 targets over the final four regular season games for Houston. He's also got two scores in that span. He fits the bill perfectly at this price for someone we'd like to target for a touchdown.
Connor Heyward anytime TD
Bet on Heyward to score at DraftKings:
This is a big old number and I'm a little surprised given the nature of this matchup. Points will be at a premium and Heyward is the tush push guy for Pittsburgh.
He "only" has two scores in his four games (which I guess might be a positive!) but more importantly he has nine rushing attempts. If Metcalf can get a DPI call or the Steelers get deep into the red zone, they're going to line up Heyward and run him up the middle.
At 7-1, this is a really nice price for a guy who has a lot more touchdown equity than his price indicates.
