Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Bills

The Cowboys haven't been good against the spread on Thanksgiving over the last 10 years or so, but that isn't going to stop me from backing them here. For starter's, Dallas just plays well when Jason Garrett's back is against the wall, and it's definitely against the wall after that debacle in New England. Also, the Bills are bad against the run and give up lots of explosive, chunk plays to running backs. Enter Ezekiel Elliott. I think I like this over, actually, as Dallas should be able to score in bunches and Buffalo should answer a couple of times as well.

Saints (-6.5) at Falcons

Taking all the chalk on Thanksgiving and I don't care. The Saints are a substantially better team than Atlanta and will want a measure of revenge against the Falcons after the home loss two weeks ago. Additionally, New Orleans is chasing the 49ers for the No. 1 seed and knows it could tie things up if San Francisco loses to Baltimore and the Saints win. Michael Thomas is going to erupt in this game, but I don't like the over because I don't trust Atlanta to score after seeing them play last week. Matt Schaub scored more fantasy points than Matt Ryan! Give me a little window with the under and the Saints team total over here.

Jets (-3.5) at Bengals

ANDY DALTON IS BACK!!!! ... and this spread moved like a half point to one point. What does that say about the Red Rifle versus Ryan Finley? Clearly Dalton is the better quarterback, but I don't care either way. I wish I was getting a better line because of Dalton playing, but the Jets are going to roll Cincinnati in this one. New York is playing some good football right now and Sam Darnold has been locked in the last three weeks. Yes, it's against bad defenses, but last I checked the Bengals have the worst defense in football. Wouldn't be surprised if Le'Veon Bell goes off too. 

Packers (-6.5) at Giants

The Giants stormed through the backdoor last week against the Bears, but I don't think it's happening this week at home against the Packers. More importantly, we should see an extremely focused and potentially angry Aaron Rodgers, who just watched homefield advantage go up in smoke against the 49ers. Last time the Packers lost in California, they forcefed Davante Adams for a huge game. I expect the same here against a ragged Giants secondary, followed by the Packers grinding the game out with Aaron Jones. 

Redskins (+10) at Panthers

Hopefully there was a learning lesson for Dwayne Haskins about taking selfies in the wake of a win, before taking a knee. And hopefully his offensive line won't hold it against him. I'm not sure the Panthers are a great matchup against the Redskins, especially since Washington is dedicated to running the football and Carolina can't stop the run. I could see Terry McLaurin getting deep one time and Derrius Guice ripping off a big run in this spot. I'd put the Panthers on upset alert here and probably lean towards the under as well in what could be a wet, windy and rainy day in Charlotte.

49ers (+6) at Ravens

What a freaking matchup this is. The two best teams in football meet in Baltimore for a game that could amount to a Super Bowl preview. One would think after taking a massive L on Monday night I wouldn't fade Lamar Jackson again, but six points is just too much for the 49ers here. They can run the ball against the Ravens and their defense is vastly superior to the Rams. Lamar's worst passing day this year was against the Seahawks and Robert Saleh runs a similar style system. They've been beaten by rushing QBs, so that's a concern, but I'll take the big number here.

Titans (+2.5) at Colts

The wrong team is favored here. The Titans are playing some really good football right now. The Colts probably have a coaching advantage, but I'm not sure where else they're better. The Titans defense is doing a nice job at the moment and Derrick Henry is running really effectively. I think you're going to see another mammoth game from A.J. Brown, who has developed a connection from Ryan Tannehill and is starting to at least deserve some OROY discussion. 

Dolphins (+9.5) vs. Eagles

Jumped on this line when it was Dolphins +8 because Carson Wentz was having tests on his hand. Whoops. Anyone want to buy that ticket? Now I'm sort of stubbornly riding out the Dolphins getting almost a full 10 points against Philly at home. It's obviously a bounceback spot for the Eagles, but I need to see if they have Lane Johnson and Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholar and Brandon Brooks back before I'm all the way in. Philly's defense is playing really well but I think Miami could stay within the number here if the Eagles are shorthanded. 

Buccaneers (+1) at Jaguars

Let's take another ride on the Jameis Coaster! Jameis Winston is tracking to be the first quarterback in NFL history to average 300 yards and 2 TURNOVERS per game for a full season, a truly miraculous achievement. I'm more interested in fading a Jaguars team that got annihilated by Derrick Henry last week -- teams who have given up 100+ yards to Henry since he entered the NFL are 1-5 straight up in the following week. The Jags might know the jig is up after a rough Week 12 outing in Tennessee. 

Browns (-2) at Steelers

Feels like a dangerous spot to keep riding the Browns, given the Steelers are looking for revenge and they're playing at home with a top flight defense. Baker Mayfield has, typically, feasted on teams who are not good at defense. The Steelers are somehow third in DVOA and fighting for their playoff lives. Who saw that coming? I still think this is a hyped-up matchup for him and he comes out to produce a big game that propels the Browns towards a potential playoff berth/push/false hope run.

Cardinals (+3) vs. Rams

This is the one game that really seems fishy on this slate. The Rams were annihilated on Monday and have a divisional matchup on short rest against the Cardinals coming off the bye. This would be a HUGE win for Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury, because it would tighten up the standings in a serious way. Finishing third in the NFC West isn't a big achievement but it would be looked on favorably. Arizona is decent against the run, so I think they slow down Todd Gurley and get to Jared Goff before winning this game at home.

Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Raiders

ANDY REID, OFF THE BYE!

ANDY REID, OFF THE BYE!

ANDY REID, OFF THE BYE!

ANDY REID, OFF THE BYE!

Also, Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr in cold weather games. 

Broncos (+3) vs. Chargers

The Chargers have laid two straight eggs in critical divisional games. Someone please explain to me why we should trust them in this spot? Their defense can rush the passer and will get Derwin James back, but they haven't necessarily been that good this season. I think the Broncos can run on them. And Von Miller should be motivated to get after Philip Rivers for potentially one of the last times in his life. Rivers is 1-4 in his last five games in Denver, with 11 touchdowns and -- yikes -- nine interceptions.

Patriots (-3) at Texans

Betting against Deshaun Watson is a dangerous game, especially at home and in prime time. I like the idea of Watson getting a field goal here and leading the Texans through the backdoor. HOWEVER, the Texans need to throw deep to win, and I'm not sure this is the best matchup for them. New England can stick Stephon Gilmore on DeAndre Hopkins and double Will Fuller, which is going to create some issues with Deshaun holding the ball. The Texans can't stop the run and Sony Michel is starting to play well. The addition of N'Keal Harry makes the Pats a very big threat in the red zone. I could see a nice Tom Brady game here.

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys

Betting against Russell Wilson in prime time while simultaneously betting ON Kirk Cousins in prime time? What can I say, I like to live dangerously. Also, I like to take the better team when given a chance. I think this game is a shootout, so I would take the over 49 as well, but I'm going to watch Kirk kill the narrative as he stomps towards a division title and the Super Bowl.