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Chicago is probably out of the playoffs, but they're still "in the hunt" so no one is going to lay down here. Akiem Hicks is close to coming back but won't be back this week, which is tough because the Bears defense is much better when he's there. I still like Chicago here. They're going to score some points, the Cowboys don't bowl over great defenses and they're on the road. Give me the home dog against a Cowboys team that will try and force the run with Ezekiel Elliott on the road.
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Huge AFC matchup here, especially for Buffalo, because a win could result in them actually having a shot at the AFC East and a bye in the playoffs. I think Buffalo is capable of hanging with anyone, however this is a team that is willing to give up explosive plays in the running game. And there isn't a more explosive team in the run game than Baltimore -- the Ravens have the third-most rushing yards through 12 games of any team in NFL history and Baltimore also owns the most 20+ yard runs and 40+ yard runs this season. Winds of 15+ mph will make it tough for either team to come back from a big deficit, so I'll lean on the better team here.
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Very nervous about backing a terrible Redskins team on their second straight road game, but there's one reason to like them here: the run game is cooking right now. Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson ran for 8.3 yards per carry against Carolina and the Packers are also bad against the run, ranking 28th in DVOA rush defense. It's gonna be tough for Washington to storm in the back door because they're so run heavy, but I think Bill Callahan will turn this into another short slog and try to limit the number of times Aaron Rodgers can pick up chunk plays. Redskins stay within 10 points here.
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It is not fun to back the Broncos because they aren't good and they're starting a rookie quarterback (although Drew Lock looked pretty sharp in his first game playing under center against the Chargers, especially early), but it's worth noting the defense has played some pretty good football as of late and this team has kept things really close against their recent opponents. Four of their last five games have been one-score games, whether they were wins or losses. That matters when the Broncos are a 10-point dog. I'll bank on them to keep it close and grind out a tough loss.
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Heavyweight battle here between two of the top teams in the NFC. It's basically a battle for the No. 1 seed (although the Saints have clinched the NFC South and the 49ers are in a battle against the Seahawks). This should be a great game and I wouldn't be brash about knowing for sure how this game plays out. The offensive line and defensive line injuries for both teams should be a huge factor. More importantly, perhaps, is the matchup of the Saints strong rush defense against the 49ers run game. If New Orleans can make Kyle Shanahan's offense one dimensional, I think the Saints can come away with a win. Alvin Kamara should be able to neutralize the pass rush a bit too.
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Everyone just saw the Browns lose to the Steelers and the Bengals upset the Jets and yet the Browns are almost a 10-point favorite in a divisional matchup?? I'll lay the points here, because Cleveland and Baker Mayfield have routinely beaten up on bad football teams over the last two years. Additionally, you can run on the Bengals if you get outside and use the short running back passing game, and the Browns have been very good at that over the last few weeks with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Bounceback week for Cleveland now that they're officially almost eliminated.
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Dead cat bounce situation (not literally but close!) for the Carolina Panthers after firing Ron Rivera on Tuesday. Perry Fewell, a Gastonia, NC, native, will take over as interim head coach. He went 3-4 as an interim coach with Buffalo in 2009 and only one game (oddly at Atlanta) was a loss by more than a single score. There are coaches on this squad who want to audition for future jobs and I think you see an impressive game from Kyle Allen, as well as a kitchen sink game from the offense. Expect Luke Kuechly to lead a motivated defensive effort.
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My initial lean was to take the Vikings here because they're a much better team with a great homefield advantage and the ability to blow out a third-string QB like David Blough. However, this is clearly a spot for Mike Zimmer to grind out a 10-point win and just call it a day. The Lions have 10 days of rest, having played on Thanksgiving, so they've had time to prep. Blough will cut it downfield to Kenny Golladay once or twice to get the Lions to like 14 or 17 points. And Zimmer will probably feed Alexander Mattison a bunch to wear out the game and get out with a 10-point win. The Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS as a home fave of 10 points or more since 2017.
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Something stinks about this game in a BIG way. The Jets are terrible! They just lost to the Bengals! They scored six points! Against the BENGALS! Why am I shouting?! Anyway, the Dolphins beat the Eagles, they look frisky again, they're covering every week and everyone is going to expect the Dolphins to dominate here. Except Le'Veon Bell has other plans and he is capable of putting up big numbers against a bad rush defense in this spot. Jets roll when no one is backing them against a bad defense.
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Going back to the well with my "Team who just gave up 100 yards to Derrick Henry and feels like it had it's soul ripped out and can't play defense the next week" analysis. The Colts just got absolutely gutted by the Titans in a game they probably should/could have won. Derrick Henry battered the defense and now they'll be softened up for the same team the Jags caved to in the Buccaneers. Jameis Winston is kind of playing for the playoffs but definitely playing for a contract from Tampa this offseason. The Bucs are frisky these days. My only concern is I assume everyone will back them here because of last week's results.
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The Chargers have actually been good for early starting games recently, going 4-1 straight up in those instances over the last two years. There's a really good look at the under here: the Bolts are 5-1 to the under in 1 p.m. starts when they're favored since 2016. The Jaguars look like they've quit, too. Jacksonville has lost its last four games by a combined 82 points. I'm not sure the return of Gardner Minshew -- who is definitely a better option than Nick Foles at this stage of the season -- necessarily changes that. I'll take the better team but fully expect Los Angeles to find a way to lose this game.
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The last two things people saw on Sunday afternoon were 1) CBS flipping to the Chargers-Broncos game because Chiefs-Raiders was such a blowout and 2) the Patriots being humiliated by the Texans on Sunday Night Football. What do you think America is going to do with the Chiefs +3 against the Pats in Foxborough this Sunday? They're going to hammer the Chiefs. So I am going to take the Patriots laying a short number at home, with a good defense against a quasi-struggling Patrick Mahomes. I'm not sure how, but the Pats are going to win this game by two touchdowns.
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This could easily be the "annual west coast nightmare game" for the Steelers. But if you look at what the Cardinals have done this season, they've been just awful against good defenses, posting a -68 point differential against top-10 defenses by DVOA. (That does include a six-point loss to Baltimore, who was not a top-10 defense at the time and it doesn't include an 18-point loss to the Panthers who were a top-10 defense at the time, just FYI.) They have a -10 point differential against everyone else. All three of their wins and their tie came against bottom-10 defenses by DVOA. Pittsburgh ranks third in DVOA.
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Everyone is going to back the Titans, because they're rolling and a hot team right now. The Raiders have lost two straight by a score of 74-12. Wow. That's a lot of points. So I'm going to take Oakland, mainly because they've been a much better home team (4-1 straight up) than a road team (0-4, their Bears game was neutral) and because Derek Carr will be better in decent weather and because the Raiders will play well over the next two weeks in their final games in Oakland. Tennessee didn't blow out the Colts the way the score suggested and easily could have lost the game.
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This year the Rams have scored less than 20 points four times. Those games came against the 49ers (2nd in defensive DVOA, 7 points scored), the Steelers (3rd in DVOA, 12 points scored), the Bears (8th in DVOA, 17 points scored) and the Ravens (4th in DVOA, 6 points scored). Other than that, this has been a pretty functional offense. The Rams should have beaten Seattle in Seattle, so I'll take the Rams to put up some points here and keep rolling against a fairly lucky Seahawks team. Jared Goff should have another big game and he might be available on your waiver wire for the fantasy playoffs.
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Man do I want to take Eli Manning on Monday night starting for the first time since he was benched against the Bucs for Daniel Jones. But I can't do it. The Giants are awful. I do like the over because neither team's passing defense is very good, but I think I gotta roll with the Eagles as long as Lane Johnson is playing. They should pressure Eli and be able to throw all over the Giants with sufficient ease.
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