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Imagine telling someone at the beginning of the NHL season that the Vegas Golden Knights and the seemingly cursed Washington Capitals. And yet, here we are, two teams that have defied the odds every step of the way this year. No matter who wins this series, someone is getting their first Cup. The Golden Knights in their inaugural season, or the Capitals in their 44th year.
The Golden Knights are looking to top off one of the most amazing seasons we've seen in sports. An expansion team in today's league making the Stanley Cup Final, by any metric, should never have happened. But the Golden Knights, led by Marc-Andre Fleury in the net and Jonathan Marchessault offensively this postseason, took down the Kings, Sharks and Jets to put themselves in position to do what no one thought possible at the beginning of the season.
Then there's Washington, and if you can hear that name without thinking "Caps' year!" then you may need a jump start. The Capitals won their first three series in three equally unexpected different ways. First, they fell down 2-0 to the Blue Jackets before storming back to win in six. Then they beat the Penguins, a Herculean accomplishment for the Capitals any given year. Then they went up 2-0 on the Lightning, lost three in a row, and just when it looked like they were going to choke away a Stanley Cup Final appearance, they won their final two games to advance.
No matter who wins this series, it's a truly remarkable story on both sides.
How to watch
TV: NBC, NBCS
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
(All times ET)
- Game 1: Golden Knights 6, Capitals 4
- Game 2 (in Vegas): Capitals 3, Golden Knights 2
- Game 3 (in Washington): Capitals 3, Golden Knights 1
- Game 4 (in Washington): Capitals 6, Golden Knights 2
- Game 5 (in Vegas): Thursday, June 7, 8 p.m. ET (NBC)
- Game 6 (in Washington): Sunday, June 10, 8 p.m. ET (NBC)
- Game 7 (in Vegas): Wednesday, June 13, 8 p.m. ET (NBC)
Stanley Cup odds
Here's a look at each team's projected odds to win the Cup via SportsLine simulations as well as the favorite from Vegas oddsmakers.
Matchup breakdown
Offense
Both of these teams can light it up on the scoreboard, and it's no accident that the top and fourth-best goal-scoring teams in the NHL find themselves here. The Capitals are scoring at an alarming rate. They have 66 goals this postseason, by far the most of any team, and 3.5 goals per game, tied with Pittsburgh for the most in hockey. Alex Ovechkin has 12 goals this postseason while Evgeny Kuznetsov has 11, and the Capitals are legitimately playing like an offensive powerhouse. The Golden Knights don't score as many goals, but they have a lot of guys that can put the puck away. Marchessault leads the team with eight goals, while William Karlsson and Alex Tuch are behind him with six. In the Final, the Caps get a bump for having bona fide scorers.
EDGE: Capitals
Defense
Defensively, the Capitals' John Carlson might be the best player in this series. He's a shot creator with some goal-scoring ability of his own and he was second on his team behind Brooks Orpik with 146 blocks. In conjunction with Michal Kempny, he creates a back-check that's very difficult to score on. For Vegas, the first pair is comprised of Brayden McNabb and Nate Schmidt, while Shea Theodore and Deryk Engelland make up the second pair. While the Knights don't necessarily have the stand-out defender that the Capitals do, they're about level in terms of depth. Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov have also been good for the Caps this year, despite a few lapses. Once you dig into the third pairs we'll see teams start to try to exploit mismatches, as both of these teams are very deep offensively.
EDGE: Draw
Goaltending
This is where Vegas has been able to shine this postseason. Marc-Andre Fleury has been nothing short of spectacular. With a save percentage of .947 and a goals-against average of 1.68 (second to Jonathan Quick among playoff goalies), he's been a wall. He has allowed fewer goals in three rounds than Pekka Rinne, Matt Murray or Tuukka Rask allowed in two. It has been an outstanding postseason for him. On the other side, however, Braden Holtby is having himself a little redemption tour. After Philipp Grubauer started the postseason for the Capitals, Holtby has allowed 36 goals in 17 games, including a shutout in a series-clinching Game 7 against the Lightning following a shutout in Game 6. He hasn't given up a goal in seven periods entering the Final. Much like Ovechkin, Holtby has been through a lot in the past few postseason with the Capitals. He's getting it done now.
EDGE: Golden Knights
Special teams
The Capitals have had an excellent season on special teams, netting the second-best percentage on penalties this postseason at 28.8 percent. TJ Oshie, Niklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson are, deservedly, one of the most feared units in hockey right now. They're going up against an excellent penalty kill in the Golden Knights, who are fourth in these playoffs, defending 82.5 percent of penalties successfully. They're not terribly efficient offensively, generally trying to keep games 5-on-5, and they score on only 17.6 percent of chances. The Capitals are also pedestrian defensively, killing 75.4 percent of penalties. If the Knights get into the box, that's the matchup to watch -- and it could be where this series is won or lost.
EDGE: Capitals
Predictions
Blackburn: I've been picking against the Golden Knights every step of the way and they keep proving me wrong. My head says to take Vegas here -- they've got the hottest goaltender and I love their ability to suffocate teams with speed and pressure on the puck -- but my heart says Capitals. Washington has a wealth of weapons and I just can't bring myself to root against Ovi finally getting his Cup. Capitals in 7.
Benjamin: It all comes down to this. Vegas has defied all the odds -- literally, all of them -- thanks to its supreme balance and supreme outings from Marc-Andre Fleury. And if anyone's destined to cap off such a historic run in surreal fashion, it's the Golden Knights. But speaking of destiny, these Capitals won't die, and Alex Ovechkin is grinding his way toward something that's escaped him for far too long. Braden Holtby is on point, which goes a long way, even though this thing should be close. Capitals in 6.
Skiver: I've been wrestling with this decision since the Final were set. The expansion Golden Knights or the Capitals, who have seemingly broken the shackles of their playoff curse. This series is about as evenly matched as you could hope for, but I can't pick against Marc-Andre Fleury right now. He's been so good this postseason, and the Golden Knights have been so dominant, it's hard to imagine them losing. The Capitals have been an amazing story this postseason, but when it comes down to a toss-up -- even one involving Alex Ovechkin -- I can't pick against the better net-minder. Golden Knights in 7.
