The Arizona Coyotes had a rough season in 2014-15, and it looks like it might get worse before it gets better.
After finishing last season with the second-worst record in hockey, just two points better than the historically bad Buffalo Sabres, the Coyotes are probably the favorites to finish the year in the basement again with a roster that is probably going to start getting heavier on youth.
This isn't a team that's simply going to roll over, but it's going to be very difficult to compete in the Western Conference as they try to rebuild. The process of that rebuild has already begun, but the foundation of the team needs a lot of work as established veterans get older and less effective.
The Coyotes obviously haven't gone full scorched earth at this point, but they also don't have many long-term commitments currently. Among the veterans on the roster, only three have contracts beyond 2016-17 -- Oliver Ekman-Larsson (one of the team's cornerstone players now and going forward), goalie Mike Smith and new acquisition <player idref=, who is on a three-year deal starting this season.
In rebuilds, there are holding years. This looks like the Coyotes' holding year, where they still have more pieces to trade off to acquire draft picks or higher-end youngsters. Meanwhile, the Coyotes have a really nice stable of prospects already.
The upcoming season is going to be about getting some of those youngsters experience, letting some marinate in junior or college hockey and adjusting the plan for the future as needed.
The players are going to play and you know head coach Dave Tippett isn't going to allow his team to just lay down. The Coyotes have enough to put a scare in a few teams here and there, but they'll likely be resigned to playing spoiler and keeping fingers crossed for the draft lottery.
2015-16 at a glance
New additions: Antoine Vermette (re-acquired in free agency), Zbynek Michalek(re-acquired in free agency), Nicklas Grossman, Stefan Elliott, Brad Richards, Boyd Gordon, Anders Lindback, Dylan Strome
Key losses: Sam Gagner, Lauri Korpikoski, Mark Arcobello, John Moore, Martin Erat, Brandon Gormley
Top returning scorers: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (82 GP, 23-20--43), Shane Doan (79 GP, 14-22--36), Antoine Vermette (63 GP, 13-22--35)
Total salary against cap: $56,670,483
Remaining cap space: $14,729,517
Biggest question heading into the season: Will the Coyotes finish low enough for a chance at top draft prospect Auston Matthews?
I'll preface this by saying that I don't think teams intentionally try to lose. But there are definitely instances where management and/or ownership does not commit the resources necessary to ice a team that will be able to compete with a good portion of the league's teams. This might be one of those instances.
The Coyotes are rebuilding. That was plainly evident last season when GM Don Maloney traded off pieces like Keith Yandle, Zbynek Michalek and Antoine Vermette. It paid off in spades because the Coyotes got some solid prospects in Anthony Duclair and Maxim Letunov, as well as a late first-round pick that turned into the intriguing Nick Merkley. Then they got Vermette and Michalek back in free agency. That's having your cake and eating it too.
The top prize in the 2016 NHL Draft is 18-year-old Auston Matthews, a native of Scottsdale, Arizona, and a product of the vaunted US National Team Development Program. Matthews made the unprecedented decision to spend this season playing professionally in Europe with the ZSC Lions in Switzerland.
However, landing Matthews is no sure thing even if the Coyotes finish last. The NHL has changed the draft lottery rules for 2016. The last-place team will still have the greatest odds of winning the lottery and taking the first overall pick (20 percent), but could finish as low as fourth overall with the first three picks now subject to the lottery.
The Coyotes are probably going to end up near the basement and will have better odds than most lottery teams to create a potential dream scenario. Matthews was turned on to hockey by the organization and just broke a bunch of records at USA Hockey's program last year (previously held by the likes of Patrick Kane and Phil Kessel). He has major-impact potential.
It's still just a dream, and one that only has a 20 percent chance of happening in the very best (or worst?) circumstances. But there's no harm in dreaming, Coyotes fans.
Season outlook
Having spent as much time going over the potential of earning a 20 percent chance of nabbing the first pick, it's pretty clear that the Coyotes' season outlook isn't rosy. But you can see, based on what the team did at the draft last year and the prospects they've acquired, that the rebuild is already well under way.
Prospects Dylan Strome, Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Nick Merkley, Maxim Letunov, Christian Fischer, Christian Dvorak and on and on all have some pretty impressive potential. They've gone heavy on skill and those rewards could be reaped soon. That's not to mention a young Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who has been one of the top defensemen in the league and notched 23 goals from the back end last year. OEL is also just 24 years old.
Guys like Duclair and Domi probably make the big club this year and make it better in some ways. Others like Strome may be better off going back to junior with the Coyotes looking unlikely to compete this year. Preserving Strome's entry-level years could come in handy in about three or four years when the roster is built up more.
There's no doubt that the Coyotes have to find a way to be more competitive to try to grab and hold the market’s interest, but it's probably not going to happen this season. It's going to be arduous, but a lot of the very best teams in the league went through similar stages before rising from the ashes.
The good news is that the process has begun. It also won't be bogged down by long-term contracts, with so few commitments extending beyond 2016-17. They've got all the room to lock up their younger players and once they've got their foundation set, they can seek outside help in free agency or through trades.
There are no guarantees in a process like this, but it is a process and it looks like there's some amount of vision from the front office. The wheels are in motion, even if there are still plenty of bumps ahead. If the Coyotes want to succeed in the desert, they have to be born again.
Salary figures via war-on-ice.com as of Sept. 14.
