No one saw the Calgary Flames coming last season. Making the playoffs seemed laughable at the start of the year. Even at various points throughout the season, it seemed as though the bottom would eventually drop out. But it never did and the Flames even reached the second round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
This year, they won’t be sneaking up on anybody. Even though they have the league’s attention now, there was reason for pause when reviewing last year’s surprise campaign. This is a group that looked due for regression in 2015-16 after getting by with an extraordinarily high team shooting percentage in the face of some paltry possession numbers the year before.
The Flames certainly are noot the first team to beat projections based on possession metrics and won’t be the last, but in order to take that next step forward, they couldn’t just sit tight on the roster they had for the coming year.
So they didn’t. Instead of being comfortable with their accomplishments from last season and going for minor tweakes, they reloaded the roster with some particularly helpful pieces.
The Flames were among the most aggressive teams this summer when it came to aiming to make improvements. They made one of the surprise moves of the year by landing defenseman Dougie Hamilton for a package of draft picks and then signing him to a long-term deal. They nabbed one of the more effective and versatile wingers available in free agency in Michael Frolik. GM Brad Treliving also managed to lock up captain and No. 1 defenseman Mark Giordano through 2022 with a reasonable $6.75 million cap hit.
The Flames understood something that some other perceived “fluke” teams didn’t. What they had wasn’t enough. It was merely a good start. Now they’ve built up a defensive unit that needed some balance, they improved forward depth which should include rookie Sam Bennett as he becomes a full-time pro. The goaltending remained status quo, but the Flames are better prepared to avoid regression than they were when the summer started.
2015-16 at a glance
New additions: Dougie Hamilton, Michael Frolik
Notable losses: David Schlemko, Raphael Diaz
Top returning scorers: Jiri Hudler (78 GP, 32-45—76), Johnny Gaudreau (80 GP, 24-40—64), Sean Monahan (81 GP, 31-31—62)
Salary against cap: $71,179,667
Remaining cap space: $220,333
Biggest question heading into 2015-16 season: Will offseason acquisitions prevent the Flames from regressing?
There are few teams that did more to improve their outlook heading into the 2015-16 season than the Calgary Flames. Adding strong two-way players like Hamilton and Frolik, who also brings some Stanley Cup experience, signified that the Flames were not going to sit back and be satisfied with what they did last season.
Prior to the moves, the Flames were drawing comparisons to the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs of recent seasons. Both of those teams tumbled mightily the year following reaching the playoffs while being aided by some projectably unsustainable numbers.
The only teams that had worse even-strength shot-attempt numbers than the Flames last season were the Avalanche and the Buffalo Sabres. The Flames got timely scoring with the aid of a high shooting percentage, slightly above average goaltending and they got hot at the right times in the season. Sometimes that’s skill driven, but a lot of times, those teams are benefitting from some good fortune.
Both Hamilton and Frolik have good underlying numbers and provide a skillset that aids them in the possession game. On top of that, the Flames will get a healthy Mark Giordano back, as he missed the last quarter of the season and playoffs. Also, the club may be able to give more offensive responsibilities to the highly-skilled Sam Bennett, who was a late addition to the roster last season.
Bob Hartley’s system might have had something to do with the poor numbers, but adding more (and better) personnel that can help control the puck should go a long way. They might dip some, but there are pieces in place to prevent dramatic drop-off.
Season outlook
The Flames have clear strengths. Their top-three defense of Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie and Dougie Hamilton, rivals most of the teams in the Pacific and could be among the best in the league overall. That’s a major benefit considering the goaltending tandem of Jonas Hiller and Karri Ramo is somewhere around average. Having three defensemen that can exit the zone well should help boost the possession numbers, too. Plus, you can add in the highly-productive Dennis Wideman, who is unlikely to put up 15 goals and 50-plus points again, but should contribute.
Up front, there’s a lot to like led off by the top line featuring Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau. That trio was one of the deadliest in hockey and could be even better in 2015-16. Considering two of the best offensive players are the 20-year-old Monahan and 21-year-old Gaudreau bodes well for the long-term success. They also have already surpassed 60 points in their young careers. But it doesn’t stop there.
The Flames aren’t going to overwhelm teams with depth, but one of the key additions to the full-time roster this year should be Bennett. The 19-year-old appeared in just one regular-season game last year, but had three goals and an assist through 11 postseason contests. He could find himself in a top-six role and contributing immediately, which could give Calgary a Calder Trophy candidate for the third time in as many years. Frolik and Mikael Backlund could also be in the mix for the second line.
However, if the Flames’ goal output takes a dip this year, there’s a fairly easy explanation. Calgary scored on 10.5 percent of the shots they took last year. That was the second-best shooting percentage in the NHL and greatly made up for the fact that they had the third fewest shots on goal in the league. Better possession means more shot attempts, more shots on goal and could help curtail an offensive dive.
If scoring drops, the battle between Hiller and Ramo for Calgary’s net could be interesting and also extremely important. That duo combined for league-average goaltending, with Hiller carrying the better .918 save percentage last season. Something along those lines keeps the Flames competitive in all likelihood.
The new additions to the roster are not enough to make the Flames a playoff lock, but they should absolutely be in the mix for one of the top three spots in the Pacific Division. Failing that, you'd expect them to last a long time in the wild card race.
The top of the lineup for this team is very strong and even with average goaltending, they’re going to be competitive. They still might regress statistically due to that high, high shooting percentage from last year, but don’t expect them to take a nosedive into oblivion like we’ve seen from similar teams with similar numbers. This is going to be an intriguing group to watch all year long.
All salary info via war-on-ice.com.
