You have to go back to the 2005-06 season when Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin were making their debuts to find the last time the hockey world was as excited for two incoming rookies as they are for Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel this season.
The top-two picks in the 2015 draft have been making headlines for more than a year and were even a significant storyline during this past season when there was a race to the bottom of the standings to see who could secure the best opportunity to land one of the prized prospects. It was enough to turn fans against their own team for a few months.
In the end, it was the Edmonton Oilers winning their fourth draft lottery in six years to earn the right to select McDavid at No. 1, while the Buffalo Sabres ended up with Eichel at No. 2 overall, a prospect that probably would have been a prize in the top spot in almost any other draft year. With their arrival to their respective teams comes a great deal of excitement and the hope that better days could soon be coming for two fan bases that have had to watch an awful lot of bad hockey over the past few years.
Especially when it comes to the Oilers. They have had No. 1 picks in the past, but none that compare to the potential -- and hype -- that McDavid is bringing with him.
Sometimes, though, we can put too much on young players and expect them to be a quick cure-all for a struggling franchise. With three No. 1 overall picks since 2010, the Edmonton Oilers are a great example that simply getting a top pick doesn't always guarantee future success.
It can, however, be a pretty big piece in the puzzle. It just can't be the only piece.
Even when a team is fortunate enough to get a potential franchise player like a Crosby, Ovechkin or McDavid at the top of the draft, the type of forward that comes along maybe once every seven or eight years, it doesn't always make an immediate impact.
All that needs to be kept in mind when projecting what to expect from McDavid and Eichel in 2015 on both an individual and team level.
1. Teams that pick first or second overall almost never make the playoffs the following year
Let's start with this, because it's a big one.
No matter what McDavid and Eichel do during their rookie seasons it's probably not going to be enough to turn what were really bad teams this past season into playoff teams this season. This is especially true in Edmonton where the only real offseason additions at this point other than McDavid were defenseman Andrej Sekera and goaltender Cam Talbot, who the Oilers are hoping can be a quality starting goaltender in the league after serving as Henrik Lundqvist's backup the past two seasons.
Buffalo did more to improve its NHL roster along with Eichel, and they will be a significantly better team than they were the past two years thanks to Evander Kane, Ryan O'Reilly, Sam Reinhart and Robin Lhener, but still probably not enough to go from one of the worst NHL teams in recent memory to a playoff team in one summer.
Just consider that since 1990 only three teams that picked first overall in the NHL draft ended up qualifying for the playoffs the following season.
The 2013-14 Colorado Avalanche (selected Nathan MacKinnon), a team that probably played way above its actual talent level that season and then badly regressed the following season, did it. The 1997-98 Boston Bruins, a team that actually had two top-10 picks that year (Joe Thornton No. 1 overall and Sergei Samsonov at No. 8 overall), did it. And the 1996-97 Ottawa Senators, an expansion team from a few years before that had picked first overall three times during a four-year stretch, did it. Their top pick in '96-97 was defenseman Chris Phillips (who didn't make his debut with the team until the 1997-98 season) and they ended up winning only 31 of their 82 games during the regular season when they qualified for the playoffs, so it's not like they were even a really good team that season.
And that's it.
Teams that picked second overall had slightly more success the following season, but only seven of those teams made the playoffs the next year. And out of those seven, two of them were teams that actually made the playoffs the previous year and were only picking so high in the draft because of earlier trades. Ottawa received the No. 2 overall pick it used to select Jason Spezza in 2001 in the Alexei Yashin trade, while Boston picked Tyler Seguin No. 2 overall in 2010 because of the Phil Kessel trade.
A lot of great players have gone in those top spots during that stretch, many of whom had really productive rookie seasons and were impact players from the start, including Crosby, Ovechkin, Patrick Kane, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares and Taylor Hall at No. 1, and players like Gabriel Landeskog, Drew Doughty, Victor Hedman, Daniel Sedin, and Bobby Ryan. All of those guys missed the playoffs in their first year. Some of them had to wait several years before making their first playoff appearance, while a player like Hall is still waiting for his first opportunity.
Bottom line: If your team is picking first overall it's because it's a bad team in a lot of areas and needs a ton of help, and it's going to take more than one guy to turn it around, no matter how good he is.
2. The NHL is still a major challenge for 18-year-olds, no matter how good they are
One of the biggest reasons it's so difficult for teams to make enough improvements to get back to the playoffs in only one year if the fact the top pick is usually the most important player that team adds in the offseason. The problem with that, in the short-term, is that it's awfully difficult for those guys to make a major impact in their first season.
The jump from the CHL, the NCAA, or whatever professional league in Europe they were playing in prior to the NHL is a massive one, and there is usually a steep learning curve for a player that is still a teenager going up against the best players in the world.
Just look at how much Steven Stamkos, one of the best goal scorers of his generation, struggled in his rookie year. His first coach, Barry Melrose, didn't even think he was ready for the NHL at that point.
Of the 219 players that have appeared in the NHL at the age of 18, only 18 of them recorded at least 50 points during that season. And out of that group, 13 of them took place during the high-flying 1980s and early 1990s when the average NHL game had eight or nine goals in it. It was a different era for offense then and it's difficult to compare production across the eras without proper context.
If you look at what 18-year-olds have done in the league in more recent years, when goals are far more difficult to come by, the rookie production is significantly lower.
Only five 18-year-olds since 2000 have topped 50 points in a season: Sidney Crosby recorded 102 points in 2005-06 (the one year out of the past 20 where goal scoring saw a significant increase across the league), Nathan MacKinnon and Jeff SKinner with 63 points in 2013-14 and 2010-11 respectively, Ryan Nugent Hopkins with 52 in 2011-12, and Ilya Kovalchuk with 51 (in only 65 games) in 2001-02.
Most of the rookies that have the most success in the league are older when they arrive. Ovechkin, for example, recorded 106 points in his debut season with the Capitals but because of the 2004-05 lockout he was already 20 years old during his rookie season and had been playing professionally in the second best pro hockey league in the world.
With all of that in mind, expecting McDavid or Eichel to jump in the league this season and instantly start putting 40-goal and 90-point seasons on the board just isn't realistic. It may happen sooner rather than later, but it's probably not going to be their very first year in the league. Of the forwards that were taken No. 1 overall since 1990 they averaged 50 points in their debut season regardless of what their age was during that season.
When it comes to a player like McDavid, if you look at what he did in his junior career, especially in his draft year with the Erie Otters, he was significantly more productive than guys like Stamkos, Tavares and MacKinnon were at similar points in their development, and on a similar production level to guys like Crosby and Kane.
Taking into account the fact that the NHL is a significantly harder league to score in 2015 than it was during Crosby's 100-point rookie season in 2006 a best-case scenario for McDavid this season would probably be in the 60-to-70 point range.
And the Oilers should be ecstatic if he reaches that as a rookie in this era.
3. Team success won't be immediate, but the window for a championship is open
Even when you take into account the fact these teams are likely to struggle in 2015-16, it should still be the very beginning of what could be their championship window. Teams that win the Stanley Cup in the salary cap era tend to have core players that were picked near the top of the draft that are still on contracts that make them bargains given their level of production. It could be an entry level deal, or a second contract that is a bridge deal to a more expensive deal in the future.
Given how early elite players hit their peak years in the league (usually before the age of 25) it's more likely teams are going to cash in with championships earlier in their careers when those players are not only still at their peak level of performance, but also not yet taking up significant salary cap space.
That makes them even more valuable because it allows the team to build depth around them and still fit it all under the cap. It's why it's so important for teams in this position to make sure the building doesn't stop once they get that top prospect. The clock is ticking at that point and they have to capitalize on that gift.
Teams like Carolina (Eric Staal), Chicago (Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews), Pittsburgh (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal and Marc-Andre Fleury), and Los Angeles (Drew Doughty) all won championships within a couple of years of picking a key player at the top of the draft (top-three picks) that went on to play a significant role on those teams. You could even include Boston in that as well with Tyler Seguin, though he was more of a secondary player on that team than anything else.
Fans of the Oilers and Sabres need to keep all of this in mind this season as they watch their still-bad hockey teams with phenom prospects.
They won't be ready to compete now, but they have what could be the most importance pieces in place.
