A couple of months ago we looked at the teams that were, at that moment, playing like the top Stanley Cup contenders in the NHL. Needless to say, a lot has changed since then. Montreal's season has circled the drain (yes, we really whiffed on that one), the Tampa Bay Lightning started to get healthy, the Chicago Blackhawks traded for a bunch of people, and the Anaheim Ducks started to score goals like a team that is still really, really talented.
Now that we are entering the stretch run of the regular season, and now that every roster is pretty much set following the NHL trade deadline, we wanted to take an updated look at the eight teams that have the best chance to lift the Stanley Cup in June.
When it comes to identifying true Stanley Cup contenders there are a few things to look for.
The first is performance, and that doesn't necessarily mean a team's place in the standings because only three of the past eight winners finished the regular season higher than eighth in total points during the regular season. We've talked about these factors before, but a quick refresher:
Recent hockey history (the past decade) shows that there are certain areas that almost all Stanley Cup winning teams excel in more than others: Goal prevention, penalty killing, and puck possession (total shot attempt differential during 5-on-5 play). Over the past eight years, Cup winners have averaged a top-six finish in all three of those categories.
One area that seems to have almost no factor in whether or not a team wins: The power play. Only one of the past eight Cup winners has finished the regular season higher than 15th on the power play (and that was the 2007-08 Red Wings) while five of those teams have finished 19th or worse.
We're also looking at the overall construction of the roster and any changes that have been made. Is it a balanced team that can get scoring from all four lines? Or is it a top-heavy team that relies on the same two or three players to carry the offense? Is there anybody who plays a big role that could actually hurt them?
And finally there is the potential path to the Stanley Cup and the teams they might have to play along the way because matchups matter when it comes to the postseason.
With all of that said, let's get to the Stanley Cup contenders as they sit right now entering the stretch run.
1. Chicago Blackhawks
Current rankings: Goals for (7th) Goals against (8th), penalty kill (22nd), possession (10th)
It's hard not to like what the Blackhawks have done.
The core that has been there through three Stanley Cups in six years is still in place, is still playing at a championship level, and they loaded up for another run at the trade deadline by adding Andrew Ladd to solidify their top line and Tomas Fleischmann and Dale Weise to strengthen their bottom-six. And they are going to get Marian Hossa back before the playoffs. They have the NHL's leading scorer, four lines that can score, are a top-10 team in goals, goals against in most shot-based metrics and their goalie, Corey Crawford, continues to silence critics and play like one of the best goalies in the league with nearly unmatched consistency.
Their biggest concern: The only real criticism of the team at this point is their penalty kill isn't particularly good, and that is usually something that matters quite a bit come playoff time. Even with that flaw this team still looks like it is going to be the top favorite going into the stretch run of the season. Along with the penalty kill, they are not quite as dominant, statistically speaking, as some of the recent Blackhawks teams that won the Cup (particularly the 2010 and 2013 teams that just demolished everybody). But we also really haven't had a chance to see the Blackhawks team that is going to be playing in the playoffs. And that team is going to be really, really good.
Current ranks: Goals for (1st), goals against (3rd), penalty kill (4th), possession (15th)
On Tuesday the folks at Bovada revealed their latest Stanley Cup odds and the Capitals were at the top of the list, coming in as 9-2 favorites to win it all. The Capitals have been regular season favorites before and it's always ended poorly come playoff time. But they have never had a team quite like this.
They have the offense to score with any team in the league (best goals per game in the league), are one of the toughest defensive teams (third in goals against, 10th in shots against, fourth on the penalty kill), and a team that has lacked a true second-line center that could strike fear in opponents not only has one, but has one that is a top scorer in the entire NHL.
They made a few tweaks to their roster leading up to the deadline, adding Mike Richards as a free agent and picking up Mike Weber and Daniel Winnik in minor deals, but they really didn't need anything more than that.
Their biggest concern: Braden Holtby is one of the better goalies in the league for a couple of years now and had an incredible start to the season where he played like a Vezina Trophy winner, and perhaps even an MVP winner. But he has really started to cool off over the past couple of months. That has to be at least a little bit of a concern. Goaltending in the playoffs is the great equalizer and nobody should know this more than Capitals fans with the way the best team before this one had a season stolen from them by Jaroslav Halak. A great performance can steal a series for a team that might get outplayed over seven games. A bad performance can have a series ripped away from an otherwise great team.
3. Anaheim Ducks
Rankings: Goals for (23rd), goals against (4th), penalty kill (2nd), possession (3rd)
Nobody had a worse start to the 2015-16 season than the Anaheim Ducks, winning just one of their first 10 games and scoring only 10 goals (with four of them coming in one game) in the process. It seemed as if the season might be over before it even had a chance to get started as coach Bruce Boudreau's job seemed to be hanging by a thread.
Instead of doing something drastic, they stuck with their coach and leaned on the fact that this was still a really talented team that was probably just going through a really bad slump during the one time of the season (right at the very beginning) where it would stand out like a sore thumb. And that is pretty much what it looks like with this team because they are good. Darn good.
Since that 1-7-2 start the Ducks put together a 33-12-6 run over the 51 games that have followed, a points percentage of .704. Keep in mind that only one team in the NHL this season (Washington) has a points percentage better than. 648. That record over the past 51 games would put them on a pace for 115 points over an 82-game schedule.
They are one of the top defensive teams in the league across the board and have been since the start of the season, and even though they are still only 23rd in the league in goals per game for the season, they are averaging 2.8 goals per game (a mark that would be seventh in the NHL for the season) since that 10-game start.
They have the Big Three that recent Cup winners have (they don't give up goals, they kill penalties, they badly outshoot their opponents) and after that first 10-game stretch they have scored at a top-10 rate.
Their biggest concern: The path to the Final where they might have to get through both Los Angeles and Chicago. That will not be easy.
4. Tampa Bay Lightning
Rankings: Goals for (9th), goals against (6th), penalty kill (7th), possession (5th)
Speaking of slow starts, the Lightning seem to be finding their stride after a disappointing start to the season that saw them win just eight of their first 20 games. It is probably not a coincidence that things started to turn around when they started to get everybody healthy, specifically Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, and when Steven Stamkos started to get hot.
They didn't do much at the trade deadline to add to their roster, but their biggest additions were, again, getting some of their best players healthy.
Their biggest concern: Even though all of the talent is still there, they don't seem to be quite as good as they were a year ago and Washington has definitely passed them as the top team in the East at the moment. That said, if the Lightning end up getting the top spot in the Atlantic Division, they are going to have some pretty favorable matchups early on which definitely helps them out.
Rankings: Goals for (16th), goals against (1st), penalty kill (14th), possession (1st)
Earlier this season, it looked like the Kings were going to cruise to a Pacific Division title, but they have allowed the Ducks (and the San Jose Sharks) to close the gap on them and now find themselves in a fight for the top spot.
In a lot of areas, they are still one of the best teams in the NHL, dominating puck possession and playing suffocating team defense.
So what is not to like about their chances now?
Their biggest concern: While some of the other contenders in the West seem to have improved in the middle of the season (Chicago and Anaheim specifically) they didn't seem to match them. Kris Versteeg is a nice player, but he doesn't seem to fit the Kings style of play, and if they expect Rob Scuderi to be anything more than a seventh defenseman (and so far they have) that is going to be a major problem and liability on their blue line.
Rankings: Goals for (6th), goals against (10th), penalty kill (26th), possession (19th)
In terms of playoff performance, the New York Rangers have been, by far, the most successful team in the Eastern Conference since 2012.
Their 39 playoff wins over that time are not only the third-most in the entire NHL and tops in the East, they are 15 more than any other team in their conference (Boston is second with 24. Pittsburgh is third with 18). They have played in the Eastern Conference Final three times since 2012 and made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final once.
It has been a really successful run, but their Stanley Cup window is definitely starting to close, and if they do not win it this year, it might be a long time before they get back. It is a very expensive team that has a lot of players due raises after the season, a team that is getting older, and a team that has mortgaged its future to try and do everything it can to win a championship in the Henrik Lundqvist era.
They continued it this season by adding Eric Staal from the Carolina Hurricanes, and even though he is not the player he once was, he can still be useful.
This is still a good team that knows how to play "playoff style hockey" in the sense that it can shut the game down, suck out all of the offense, and watch its goalie stop a ton of shots.
The Rangers hit a little bit of a slump in the middle of the season but have been stacking up wins over the past few weeks even though they have dealt with some pretty significant injuries to Ryan McDonagh (their best defenseman) and Rick Nash (their best forward, even though everybody seems to hate him). They will not be an easy out come April and May.
Their biggest concern: Dan Girardi and Marc Staal aren't very good anymore, but they still get playing time and are used like they are.
7. St. Louis Blues
Rankings: Goals for (24th), goals against (8th), penalty kill (3rd), possession (14th)
They're pretty good. But are they anything more than that? And are they good enough to beat any of Chicago, Los Angeles and Anaheim in a best-of-7 series? Having had better teams in recent years and still coming out on the losing end every time they have had to go up against one of them, history would seem to indicate no (they have had to play Los Angeles or Chicago in the playoffs in three of the past four years and managed to win only four out of 16 games against them).
Vladimir Tarasenko is a game-breaker offensively, and he has been incredible for them in the playoffs the past two years, but are they going to get enough offense from the rest of their lineup?
And even though Brian Elliott and Jake Allen have been a pretty solid duo for them in net this season, they both still seem to be very boom-or-bust, especially when it comes to Elliott.
Their biggest concern: Everything mentioned above.
Rankings: Goals for (2nd), goals against (23rd), penalty kill (24th), possession (2nd)
If you hate what the NHL game has become from a goal scoring perspective and are a fan of entertaining hockey, you should be rooting for the Dallas Stars because this team is fun. They score a lot of goals, they give up a lot of goals, and no lead for any team, no matter how big it is, is safe in a game they are participating in.
But there are just way too many red flags with this team to put them at the top of the contender list, and I'm not just talking about the fact they are already starting to slow down a little bit after their incredible start. As of Wednesday, they are just 10-12-3 since Jan. 1.
They have a ton of money invested in goaltending (for two more years) that isn't producing, and their big trade deadline upgrade to the defense was Kris Russell, a player who not only doesn't really fit their style of play, but is probably a bit overrated simply because he blocks a lot of shots (he doesn't really do much else). The reason he blocks a lot of shots, of course, is because he doesn't do a great job getting the puck out of the defensive zone, and if a team like Dallas has to spend more time in the defensive zone that is not going to have a good ending for them.
Their biggest concern: Their offense is so good that it is going to give them a chance, but probably not enough to outlast Chicago, Los Angeles and Anaheim, especially when you factor in just how much trouble they've had preventing goals this season as outlined above.
