Team USA men's basketball just brought perhaps its most talented basketball roster to the Olympics since the 1992 Dream Team... and it easily could have finished without a gold medal. Had Serbia not gone cold from deep in the fourth quarter, Team USA likely would have been capped at bronze in the 2024 Paris Games. Even after winning gold on Saturday against France, it wasn't without some degree of controversy. Jayson Tatum was held out of both games against Serbia. Joel Embiid was held out of the South Sudan game. Finding enough minutes for all of those superstars proved impossible.
So what's the lesson here? Talent alone does not guarantee Team USA the gold. That will be especially true starting in 2028, when the best American players (LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry) have presumably aged out of international competition. The days of simply rolling out 12 All-Stars and waltzing to gold are probably gone. Team USA will always have the deepest team in the field, of course, but the goal now should be to build a cohesive roster.
So let's look ahead to the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles and try to pick a roster that makes sense as Team USA goes for its sixth consecutive gold medal. We will be doing so with the following parameters:
- For now, we are assuming anyone who will be 34 or older in 2028 is probably done playing for Team USA. This eliminates James, Curry, Durant, Joel Embiid, Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis and Derrick White from this year's team. Among superstar NBA players not on this team, it also eliminates Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Jimmy Butler and James Harden. We might reach 2028 and have 34-year-old players who are worthy, but this is our mechanism to protect against age-related decline four years out.
- Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown would both qualify for spots if they want them. For now, we are going to act as though both will choose not to play because of how the 2024 Olympics went. Tatum was DNP'd twice. Brown was left off of the roster and publicly grumbled about it. We will specify whose spots Tatum and Brown would take if they choose to play, though, and considering the four-year wait between now and then, there is plenty of time for USA Basketball to mend fences.
- We are setting a cap of eight players that have been chosen for an All-Star Game at any point in their NBA career. These are the players that will be guaranteed minutes so as to prevent another Tatum-like situation. No other team is going to be able to send seven NBA All-Stars, so Team USA will still have the most overall talent in the field. We will be doing some projecting where All-Star selections are concerned, as some of these players haven't made it yet, but are expected to in the future. The other four spots will go to specialists who are used on a game-by-game basis.
- Continuity and chemistry will be prioritized. Prior Team USA experience is encouraged. Preexisting NBA relationships help as well.
- Our head coach will be Erik Spoelstra. It's a no-brainer choice. He's the best coach in the world and he's been a Team USA assistant, so he's next in line.
So with that in mind, let's pick Team USA's 2028 roster:
The ball-handlers
We are immediately going to use four of our eight All-Star slots on the guards that will serve as Team USA's primary shot-creators in 2028, and all three of them have Team USA experience. Our two point guards will be 2024 Olympian Tyrese Haliburton and 2023 World Cup starter Jalen Brunson. Our starting shooting guard will be 2024 Olympian Anthony Edwards.
Edwards is the obvious selection. He may be the best American player in the world four years from now, and his on-ball defense makes him a fit with either Brunson or Haliburton, who are both weak on that end of the floor. He said before the 2024 Olympics that he expected to be the No. 1 option. Well, in 2028, that's reasonably possible for him. If he continues to grow as expected, he might well be the face of USA Basketball moving forward, taking the torch from his childhood hero Kevin Durant.
The Brunson-Haliburton combination not only gives Team USA's roster two elite ball-handlers, but quite a bit of stylistic versatility. While Haliburton did not play much in 2024, his up-tempo style is a great fit for FIBA play. When Team USA wants to run opponents off of the floor, set up 3-pointers and keep everyone involved, Haliburton makes the most sense. When it needs to slow things down and get hard buckets, Brunson is the better fit. We don't even necessarily need to name a starter. The right player can be chosen on a game-to-game basis.
The last spot comes down to four guards: Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Ja Morant and Tyrese Maxey. Morant and Maxey are appealing for their speed, but we're hoping Edwards and our bigs can generate enough rim-pressure on their own, and Haliburton's ability to generate pace at the team level mitigates some of what is lost by leaving Maxey or Morant off the team.
Booker vs. Mitchell was a harder pick. We're ultimately going with Booker because of his performance in the 2024 Olympics. He's been completely comfortable taking a back seat offensively, scoring when needed while playing strong defense and fitting into whatever lineups he's placed in. Steve Kerr showed how much trust he has in Booker by putting him in the closing lineup alongside four MVPs against Serbia. That he would also be a three-time Olympian that keeps some continuity within the program is a nice bonus.
The wings
This is the portion of the roster in which we'll be loading up on non-All-Stars. We're getting our shot-creation primarily out of the guards (and one big man we haven't yet named), and the talent pool in the front court is smaller, so we're going to want to use All-Star slots there as well. We want role players here, so we are loading up on the best 3-and-D wings we can find. Four players immediately stand out on that front:
- Mikal Bridges. He played for Team USA at the 2023 World Cup and was very good, making over half of his 3-pointers and taking some of the hardest defensive assignments. That he also offers a bit of secondary shot-creation is just a nice bonus, and he brings immediate chemistry with Brunson, who he obviously played with at Villanova and will now be teammates with in New York as well.
- Jalen Suggs. Cards on the table, this would be the Derrick White spot if he were just a few months younger. Alas, he just misses our age cutoff, and so does second-choice Alex Caruso. That's no problem. Suggs is more than qualified to be our designated guard stopper off of the bench. He'll need to sustain last season's 3-point shooting (39.7% on 5.1 attempts per game compared to 27.1% on 3.9 attempts per game in his first two seasons) to fit in offensively, but fortunately this roster has so much offensive firepower that it can survive one weaker link.
- Herb Jones. Speaking of weaker offensive links, here's our bigger wing defender who is also a steadily improving but by no means proven shooter. From a rotation standpoint, Jones and Suggs would likely be used depending on matchups. Suggs makes more sense against guards. Jones makes more sense against wings or even centers, though he can handle guards quite well in his own right.
- Josh Hart. This is a pick to supplement our bigs. As we'll get into it, the American player pool isn't exactly overflowing with rebounders. Hart is going to be the 12th man on this team. He may not play much. But we need someone on the roster who can come in and get a big board or two against certain opponents. Steve Kerr raved about him on the 2023 World Cup team. "People ask, 'What position does he play?' He plays winner," Kerr told reporters at the time. He also maintains our Villanova-Knicks connection, which help with the vibes.
We're only bringing three big men, so we still need one more wing. This will be the Tatum or Brown spot if either decide to play (and if we need to send another player home to accommodate both, it would be Hart), however, for now, we are assuming that neither play. Fortunately, we have another wing coming up through the pipeline who should be an All-Star by 2028 and fits like a glove: Jalen Williams.
Oklahoma City's budding star wing is a low-volume 3-point shooter, but made 48.7% of his wide-open triples last season. Guess what kind of shots tend to be available for Team USA? He's a versatile defender who can create his own look, but is used to playing in a relatively egalitarian system in Oklahoma City, so he won't mind if his touches vary from game-to-game. By 2028, he will be a six-year veteran nearing the peak of his powers.
Who are our snubs here? Admittedly, I tried to find a way to fit Donte DiVincenzo onto the roster purely for the sake of keeping the Villanova quartet together. It never hurts to have a spare knockdown shooter on the roster, and we've certainly leaned toward defense with some of the role player choices here. But if we were going to pick a shooter, there are probably better ones available (Desmond Bane comes to mind), and DiVincenzo has expressed interest in playing for Italy in the past anyway, so we'll say he's out.
The real struggle, as it was for the 2023 Rookie of the Year award, was Williams vs. Paolo Banchero. In the end, it just came down to fit. Banchero is probably going to be a better generator of individual offense. He is now, anyway, and that's despite playing on a team with far less offensive talent. Of course, offensive talent isn't at a premium on this roster. Williams having the more reliable 3-point shot and stronger defensive track record allows him to edge out Banchero, though Banchero will likely be a Team USA-caliber player by 2028 and may have even been one in 2024.
The bigs
We'll get to the centers in a moment, but for now, let's start at power forward. One of the consistent features of Team USA is overwhelming athleticism. Team USA almost always has a few players that can just bully most opponents. This is where our power forward choice comes in. We're bringing Zion Williamson to provide relentless rim pressure. Health is obviously a concern here. If he can't go, well, that's another spot that Tatum or Brown could potentially take if they are healthy enough to play, or it could open the door for Banchero as well. But Team USA can afford to have a few luxury spots devoted to specific sorts of weapons. Williamson is a bit like Joel Embiid in that he is at his most valuable with the ball in his hands, which is a less valuable sort of player in a Team USA setting... but there will be matchups in which having such a singular scoring force proves vital.
Now, with Williamson in at power forward, it's going to be vital to have a shooting big man available to play next to him. Fortunately, one of Team USA's best young big men offers plenty of spacing. Chet Holmgren will be our starting center, providing space, lob gravity and rim-protection. He has chemistry with Williams from Oklahoma City, and he's about as easy to fit onto a roster as any big man in the current NBA. He's a bit skinny to be defending some of the bigger centers in the Olympic field like Nikola Jokic, but he'll likely add some bulk in the next four years, and besides, Victor Wembanyama is probably the primary threat moving forward.
Our last big man is another Team USA staple: Bam Adebayo. This will be his third go-round for Team USA, and with Spoelstra as our coach, he's an obvious choice. He's a bit more versatile defensively than Holmgren and a stronger rebounder. While there will be better big men in the Olympic field than Adebayo and Holmgren, together they are more than enough to make Team USA the favorites.
Who are our snubs here? It's a short list. Most of the best big men in the world aren't American. Evan Mobley comes to mind, but his shot just hasn't developed enough yet for him to be considered over Holmgren. Cooper Flagg is a possibility, and he was great at Team USA camp this summer, but without actually seeing him in the NBA yet, it's too hard to project what kind of player he will be in 2028. In all likelihood, there will be a big man or two we aren't currently expecting who makes a real run at a 2028 roster spot. The pool of American big men is young and on the rise.
The full roster
We're not exactly locked into a starting lineup, but broadly, here's what the depth chart looks like:
| Position | Starter | Backup | Third-string |
|---|---|---|---|
PG | Jalen Brunson | Tyrese Haliburton | Jalen Suggs |
SG | Anthony Edwards | Devin Booker | |
SF | Mikal Bridges | Jalen Williams | Herb Jones |
PF | Zion Williamson | Josh Hart | |
C | Chet Holmgren | Bam Adebayo |
The exact starting lineup and rotation would need to be determined by matchup and trial and error. Broadly though, Brunson, Edwards, Williamson, Holmgren, Haliburton, Booker and Adebayo would make up the team's core and be guaranteed playing time. Bridges and Williams would likely be the most-used wings. And then, Suggs, Jones and Hart would fill in as needed. With Spoelstra at the helm, this group would be the strong favorite to win gold in Los Angeles.