USA vs. Slovakia odds, prediction: 2026 Winter Olympics men's ice hockey semifinal picks from proven expert

The 2026 Winter Olympics men's hockey competition is down to its final four nations, with USA vs. Slovakia taking place in one semifinal on Friday. The United States knocked off Sweden, 2-1 in overtime, in the quarterfinals, while Slovakia downed Germany 6-2 to reach the Olympic men's hockey semifinals round. The Slovakians defeated the Americans, 5-4 in overtime, when they last met in the 2024 World Championship. The U.S. has won 11 Olympic medals (two gold) in men's ice hockey, while the Slovakians' only medal was a bronze at the 2022 Games.

The puck drops at 3:10 p.m. ET from the Unipol Dome in Milan, Italy. The Americans are -750 favorites (risk $750 to win $100) in the latest United States vs. Slovakia odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. The over/under for total goals is 5.5 (-138/+112). Before making any USA vs. Slovakia men's hockey picks, check out the 2026 Winter Olympics predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Matt Severance.

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Severance is coming off an outstanding NHL season in which he went 235-155-21 (plus $2,022). He entered the Olympic break on a 26-12 roll on NHL money-line picks this season, returning $1,326 for $100 players. Anyone following his hockey picks at their favorite sportsbooks could have seen huge returns.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Slovakia vs. United States in a men's hockey semifinal at the Winter Olympics 2026. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the latest Winter Olympics and trends for USA vs. Slovakia:

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Top United States vs. Slovakia predictions

After evaluating USA vs. Slovakia, Severance is backing both teams to score 1+ goals (-500). In each of the last three meetings between these nations, both teams have scored not only 1+ goals but at least 2 goals. During the preliminary round of the 2026 Olympics, only one team scored more goals than the U.S., which found the back of the net 16 times. Meanwhile, the Slovakians have scored at least three goals in every game of their run, including six goals in their quarterfinal win over Germany.

While the U.S. defense has been elite, Slovakia has former No. 1 overall NHL draft pick Juraj Slafkovský, who is averaging the fourth-most points per game of this Olympic tournament. Severance sees his presence as being enough for Slovakia to penetrate the USA defense, saying, "he has seven points in this year's Games. The Slovaks rank No. 2 in scoring efficiency (12.31%) in Italy, so I doubt they get blanked by the USA's Connor Hellebuyck, as good as he is."

How to make Slovakia vs. Team USA picks

Severance has also found a critical x-factor that has him jumping on another best bet. Head to SportsLine to see what it is. 

So who wins United States vs. Slovakia, and which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the U.S. vs. Slovakia semifinal match to back, all from the elite hockey insider, and find out.