The first Sunday of the 2026 NFL season is just a few days away on Sunday, September 13, and after getting a taste of NFL action over the last two days, a full Sunday slate will certainly generate interest at prediction market apps. The Sunday NFL schedule includes Bills vs. Texans, Vikings vs. Packers, and Cowboys vs. Giants as opportunities to take advantage of some of the best prediction market promos available. Trade on the NFL with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS and get $25 in bonus trading credits after making $25 worth of trades here:
Kyler Murray makes his Vikings debut against the Packers, who will be without Josh Jacobs (NFL commissioner's exempt list). The Vikings are trading at $0.54 per contract to win at home, while the Packers are $0.47. Other top matchups with prices to win include Bills ($0.52) vs. Texans ($0.48), Buccaneers ($0.35) vs. Bengals ($0.65) and Cowboys ($0.60) vs. Giants ($0.40).
Here's a closer look at the available top trading bonuses on some of the top NFL prediction markets, as well as the best prediction market sites available for NFL Week 1, with instructions on how to claim each offer and where to trade on the NFL.
Where to trade on NFL Week 1
| Prediction Market App | Welcome Bonus Offer | Promo Code |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Trade $25+, get $25 in bonus trading credits | CBSSPORTS |
| Polymarket | Deposit $10, get a $50 trading bonus | CBSSPORTS |
| Underdog | Get a 50% deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus funds | CBS |
The Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS gives new users $25 in bonus trading credits after their first $25 in trades. The $25 bonus trading credits can be spread across multiple trades, such as on Kalshi NFL markets, and the bonus credits expire after seven days.
The Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS gives users a $50 bonus for simply making a first-time deposit. Users get a $50 trading bonus with a $10 deposit, which is the minimum deposit for Polymarket US. Users can also use that on multiple trades, including but not limited to Polymarket NFL markets.
The Underdog promo code CBS gives new users a 50% deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus funds. The bonus funds are delivered within 72 hours of your first deposit. However, bonus funds can't be used on Underdog prediction markets, but they can be used on fantasy entries and DFS at Underdog. This promo isn't available in MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA.
Traders can take advantage of any of these promotions for NFL Week 1.
How prediction markets work
Prediction markets offer event contracts where users can purchase positions on a result at a given price (between $0.01 and $0.99). Each correct position pays out at $1.00 per contract.
Contract prices are reflective of what the market predicts the win probability to be and are subject to change as money comes in. Below is a guide showing event contract prices along with their equivalent American odds:
Equivalent odds for NFL prediction market prices
- $0.10 per contract = +900
- $0.20 per contract = +400
- $0.30 per contract = +233
- $0.40 per contract = +150
- $0.50 per contract = +100
- $0.60 per contract = -150
- $0.70 per contract = -233
- $0.80 per contract = -400
- $0.90 per contract = -900
Week 1 NFL picks, predictions
Texans to defeat Bills ($0.48)
The Texans had the No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL last season (17.3 points per game allowed) with the 13th-best offense at 23.7 ppg. C.J. Stroud didn't look his best during the playoffs, but this is the regular season, and Stroud threw for 3,041 yards and 19 touchdowns last season. Houston defeated Buffalo in 2025 and 2024, and the Texans open this season at home, where they went 7-2 last year. The Bills are among the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but they went just 5-3 on the road last season. Given that DeMeco Ryans had extended time to plan a defense to slow down Josh Allen, the model likes Houston's chances in the opener. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Texans winning in 60% of simulations.
Houston to win is trading at $0.48 per contract at Kalshi. The Bills to win is trading at $0.52. Trade on the NFL with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS and get $25 in bonus trading credits after making $25 worth of trades here:
Eagles to win by 5.5 or more points against Commanders ($0.50)
The Eagles traded away A.J. Brown this offseason, but they still have plenty of offensive playmakers, such as Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, with Jalen Hurts commanding the offense. The Eagles drafted receiver Makai Lemon at No. 20 overall to replace some of Brown's lost production as well. Philadelphia enters off back-to-back NFC East titles, and it won 11 games last season, marking the fourth straight year with at least 11 wins. The Commanders went 5-12 last year. The Eagles rested their starters last year at home against the Commanders, but the prior time the two met in Philadelphia, the Eagles won 55-23 in the NFC Championship Game in January 2025. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Eagles winning by more than 5.5 points in 63% of simulations.
Philadelphia to win by 5.5 or more points is trading at $0.50 per contract at Polymarket. The Eagles to win by fewer than 4.5 points or lose the game outright is trading at $0.51. Trade on the NFL at Polymarket with the Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 trading bonus:
Cowboys vs. Giants: More than 48.5 total points scored ($0.48)
The Giants had significantly better offensive success after changing to Jaxson Dart at quarterback, and he'll have more playmakers at his disposal this season. Cam Skattebo is back after his season-ending ankle injury, and Malik Nabers has practiced without an injury designation after his torn ACL suffered early in Dart's first start. The Giants closed last season with back-to-back 34-point performances. Meanwhile, Dallas had the worst scoring defense in the NFL last season at 30.1 points per game allowed and returns the biggest contributors from its fifth-ranked offense, including quarterback Dak Prescott, wide receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens and running back Javonte Williams. The SportsLine Projection Model has more than 48.5 total points scored in 62% of simulations.
More than 48.5 points is trading at $0.48 per contract at Underdog. Less than 48.5 points is trading at $0.53. Trade on NFL Week 1 at Underdog with the Underdog promo code CBS to get a 50% deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus funds:
Responsible trading
Prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) â an independent agency of the U.S. federal government.
Prediction market trading should be used for entertainment purposes in a fun, responsible manner. Trading is risky and involves a risk of loss; always trade responsibly.
Responsible Trading toolkits on prediction market platforms involve:
- Deposit Limits
- Session Time Limit
- Timeout
- Self-Exclusion
- Close Your Account
- Contact Helplines
Prediction market platforms offer Responsible Trading resources that can be found in your account settings after logging in or by request by contacting customer support. Concerned about your trading? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.
Event contracts trading involves a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Participation in prediction markets is subject to applicable eligibility requirements. Participation may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions and participants are responsible for ensuring their participation complies with applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Prediction markets content is not intended for individuals located in jurisdictions where they are prohibited.
Some markets on the Polymarket global site may not be available on the CFTC federally-regulated and licensed Polymarket U.S. app. Volume and pricing on the Polymarket U.S. app may differ from the Polymarket global site.
