The future of superstar LeBron James has been the subject of speculation for the past year. Would the 41-year-old return to the Lakers? Will he head back home to play for the Cavaliers? Or will he simply retire and put an end to one of the most storied careers in North American sports history? Now we know he won't be back in L.A., but the guesswork continues.
After speculation that he was almost certain to join the Warriors died out, Kalshi's LeBron James' Next Team market now shows one of the previous options has emerged as the most likely scenario. As of Friday, July 3, the Cavaliers are considered the most likely team to land King James after he informed the Lakers he would play the 2026-27 season elsewhere.
The Warriors were trading at $0.74 earlier in the week, but they are now trading at $0.22 to land James. The Cavaliers, James' hometown team, are now the favorite at $0.38 per share with the latest news, while the 76ers are the third choice.
| James' next team | Market rates at Kalshi |
| Cavaliers | $0.38 |
| Lakers or retire | $0.03 |
| Warriors | $0.22 |
| 76ers | $0.20 |
| Heat | $0.13 |
On Monday, June 29, Shams Charania of ESPN reported that forward Draymond Green will decline his $27.7 million player option for the upcoming season. With that salary off the books or potentially reduced at a later date (note: both James and Green are represented by agent Rich Paul), the Warriors had flexibility under the salary cap to offer James in free agency. hat led to speculation that James would join Steph Currym with a potential trade for Wizards center Anthony Davis also part of the discussion.
The idea was that a James-Davis-Steph Curry Big 3 in the Bay Area (with Green also an option at a reduced number) would be enough to sway James to move to Northern California. James, Davis and Curry all played together on the 2024 USA Olympic basketball team that won the gold medal in Paris.
The talk of James joining Golden State being imminent has tapered off, but the Warriors are still in the mix. Agent Rich Paul has about a half-dozen teams his friend and client could join, including the Heat and 76ers. But the thinking is that LeBron will be looking to close out his career with the hometown Cavaliers, where he has played 11 seasons and won one of his four NBA titles.
James is coming off his worst statistical season since he was a 19-year-old rookie in 2003. He averaged a career-low 20.9 points while averaging just 6.1 rebounds per game (third worst of his career).
But he looked reenergized in the playoffs, averaging 23.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and 7.3 assists while shooting 45.9% from the field. He helped a Luka Doncic-less Los Angeles team upset the Rockets in the first round of the postseason before the Lakers were swept by the defending champion Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals.
The prediction markets jumped on Golden State in anticipation of James' arrival, with Kalshi earlier in the week giving the Warriors a 9% chance to win next season's NBA title. But now they are down to 4 cents per share, and Cleveland went from 3 cents per share to 6 cents. The 6% chance to win the title is sixth in the NBA.
| 2027 NBA champion | Market rates at Kalshi |
| Thunder | 25% |
| Spurs | 20% |
| Knicks | 10% |
| 76ers | 9% |
| Celtics | 9% |
| Cavaliers | 6% |
| Heat | 6% |
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