An intriguing Big Ten matchup between No. 16 USC and Wisconsin is one of the more notable games of the day on Saturday. The Trojans are firmly in the College Football Playoff picture at 6-1 with the lone blemish coming at home against Oregon a few weeks ago. The Badgers are 4-2, having lost to Notre Dame early in the year and undefeated UCLA last weekend, but that's notable progress considering Wisconsin went 4-8 last year and 5-7 in 2024. Ahead of this Big Ten matchup, we'll dive into the best trades you can make at Kalshi, one of the top prediction market apps for sports fans, using the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, which gives new users a $55 bonus after they make $25 in trades. We'll look at insight and picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times. Get started at Kalshi here with the promo code CBSSPORTS55 for a $55 bonus:
See the Kalshi promo code review page for the terms and conditions of this offer. Make sure prediction markets are legal in your state before you sign up.
USC vs. Wisconsin prediction markets at Kalshi
- USC to win: $0.57
- Wisconsin to win: $0.44
- USC to win by more than 2.5 points: Yes $0.53, No $0.48
- More than 50.5 points: Yes $0.49, No $0.52
USC to win: $0.57
The Trojans are a talented squad once again under head coach Lincoln Riley, and aside from a disappointing home loss to Oregon, the team has taken care of business with a 6-1 start. USC has never made the College Football Playoff -- either the four-team or 12-team format -- and is hoping to buck that trend this season. If USC is to make the CFP, this is a game the team has to win. The Trojans face Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA as part of their final four games of 2026. USC will lean on its offense, which is 26th in the nation in scoring behind quarterback Jayden Maiava, and hope for better defense as that unit is 80th out of 138 in points allowed per game.
The SportsLine model has USC winning 62% of the time. A Trojans win is trading at $0.57 per share at Kalshi, with that share price equal to an 57% probability in the latest USC vs. Wisconsin odds. Use the latest Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55 to trade on college football and get a $55 bonus:
Wisconsin to win: $0.44
The Badgers have been much better off this year than in the past under Luke Fickell. The team is off to a 4-2 start with its losses coming to top-10 teams in Notre Dame and UCLA. The Badgers were abysmal offensively last year, ranking second-to-last in all of FBS in points per game. They're 81st now, which is a big step up. The defense is also 24th in points per game allowed, which has kept Wisconsin in a lot of these games. After giving up 41 points to Notre Dame, the Badgers are allowing just 11.8 points per game. The defense will be tested against a high-powered USC attack, and the offense will need to keep up against an exploitable Trojans defense.
A Badgers win is priced at $0.44 per share on Kalshi, which equates to a 44% probability in the latest USC vs. Wisconsin odds. Sign up now to make trades on Kalshi and get a $55 bonus with the promo code CBSSPORTS55:
USC to win by more than 2.5 points: Yes $0.53, No $0.48
As noted, this is a game the Trojans can't afford to overlook with Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA all looming over the team's final four games. This isn't the same Wisconsin team from the last few years, either. The Badgers have really locked in on the defensive side of the ball after a blowout loss to Notre Dame, and outside of a one-touchdown outing against UCLA last week, they have found just enough offense to win. The Trojans present a different challenge with Riley and Maiava running things on the other side, and the SportsLine model thinks USC will be able to win by more than 2.5 points. That occurs in the majority of the model's simulations.
USC to win by more than 2.5 points is $0.53 per share at Kalshi. Wisconsin losing by fewer than 2.5 points, or winning outright, is $0.48. Get started at Kalshi here with the promo code CBSSPORTS55 for a $55 bonus:
More than 50.5 points: Yes $0.49, No $0.52
The Trojans have seen five of their seven games result in more than 50.5 combined points so far this season, which tracks given USC has a very good offense and a struggling defense. The Badgers have had the opposite problem, so just two of their six games have had more than 50.5 combined points be scored, and those were in two of their first three games. The SportsLine model expects points to be scored here, though, with more than 50.5 points occurring in more than 50% of simulations.
USC vs. Wisconsin resulting in more than 50.5 points is trading at $0.49 per share at Kalshi. Less than 50.5 points is trading at $0.52. Get started at Kalshi here with the promo code CBSSPORTS55 for a $55 bonus:
Responsible risk management
It's a top priority for Kalshi to look out for its users. Kalshi equips every trader with accessible risk management tools that can be enabled at any given time, including risk management actions like trading break, voluntary opt-out, and a personalized funding cap.
Prediction Markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) - an independent agency of the U.S. federal government.
Event contracts trading involves a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Participation in prediction markets is subject to applicable eligibility requirements. Participation may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions and participants are responsible for ensuring their participation complies with applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction.
