Antoine Semenyo to Manchester City: Will transfer of former Bournemouth winger swing the title race?

The most coveted player of the January transfer window now belongs to Manchester City but is Antoine Semenyo the man to swing the title race back in the direction of Pep Guardiola's side? The 26 year old completed on Friday a move that had been in the offing for several days with Bournemouth eager to wring as many minutes out of their star attacker before he departed to the north west.

It worked out rather favorably for Andoni Iraola and perhaps even for Semenyo, whose final act as a Bournemouth player was a 96th minute wonder goal against Tottenham that ended an 11 game winless league run for his club. The Cherries had wanted Semenyo to stay on for their first two games of 2026 and his farewell could scarcely have gone better for them.

City might wonder how different matters might have been if they had forced the issue. Semenyo's release clause stood at $87 million and had to be paid as a lump sum, standard in these circumstances. Holding out meant the club paying slightly less and structuring the payment across several years, per CBS Sports sources. Semenyo is convinced that he will prove to be worth the (brief) wait.

"I have so much scope for improvement, so to be at this club, at this stage of my career, is perfect for me," he said. "It's a real privilege to be here. My best football is yet to come, I am sure of that. And City are in a great position – still involved in four competitions. I really feel I can help them have a strong second half of the season."

Unfortunately while they were waiting, City began the new year with three straight draws, allowing title rivals Arsenal to push six points clear. Wednesday's 1-1 draw with Brighton felt particularly tailor made to have supporters wondering what might have been if City arrived early: a boatload of shots for Erling Haaland but just one goal and precious little from anyone else. This was not the first time this season that it felt like Pep Guardiola needed a running mate for his big No.9. That is what the new signing will need to be.

The high level details around that move make for a compelling pro-Semenyo case. What do teams want when they make major signings in the January window? Invariably it is players who will not require a lengthy adjustment period. Born in west London, Semenyo has spent his entire career in the English league system and is now into season four in the Premier League. There will inevitably be complications when learning how to play for Guardiola, but the more direct approach City have utilized this season should suit a player departing Iraola's tutelage.

This is about as plug and play as City could realistically hope for. And they can play him almost anywhere. According to Transfermarkt, Semenyo has played 46 of his 97 Premier League games on the right flank and 37 on the left with a little bit of moonlighting at center forward in between. That versatility in positioning is reflective of the same in his technique. There's a pretty encouraging spread in the numerous shots Semenyo has taken between the start of 2022-23 and the end of the calendar year 2025. Of those 243 a little over half, 133, come off his left foot, 95 his right.

These numbers speak to Semenyo's technical ability and so does the experience of watching him. There are few more exhilarating sights in the division than the Ghana international at full flight, drawing multiple defenders his way in transition and blowing past them en route to goal. Take this brilliant equaliser against Fulham, when two defenders have shown him to the byline and look to have snuffed out the chance. There isn't really a pass on for Semenyo but no worries, he'll just roll the ball into the bottom corner. That's the goal of a future star for a Premier League title contender.

On a surface level, then, this feels like a can't miss use of money, a player who merits a fee that would make him the third most expensive in history. Here's the question then. If that is indeed the case, why does Semenyo's output where it matters most seem somewhat underwhelming for a player wanted by every top club in the land. 

You'll be thinking this is madness, I bet. After all since the start of last season Semenyo has the eighth most goals of anyone in the Premier League. His 21 is more than anyone in a City shirt bar Erling Haaland, a better return than Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers or Bruno Fernandes. These are superstar numbers.

Some of that is a function of the fact that in a Bournemouth team, Semenyo is a superstar. He is a primary option in a way that no one will ever be on a team that includes Haaland. At City he might not even be a tertiary. He will exist in a team whose primary responsibility is getting the ball to their No.9 and letting him take the shots. Hence why Guardiola has come to increasingly favor both Jeremy Doku and Ryan Cherki, whose great abilities come with moving the ball into dangerous positions and making shots for others from there.

That is not something Semenyo has done for Bournemouth. Since the start of last season he creates just 1.3 chances per 90 minutes and averages 0.11 expected assists. He has provided eight actual assists but few of them are Kevin De Bruyne-esque teeings up. The long throws might make a nice little bonus option for Guardiola to experiment with, but like his goals, it feels like this is a player on an impressive but unsustainable streak.

Perhaps though he does not need to create for Haaland but can function as the Robin to the hulking Batman in the middle of the penalty area. What we would want to see here is a player who gets shots, which Semenyo does, nearly two and a half per 90 Premier League minutes worth 0.34 xG. That would get dinged in City blue and would raise the question, is Semenyo offering more as a support striker than Phil Foden or even Omar Marmoush, who has struggled for minutes this season. 

The graph above paints a stark picture. Semenyo doesn't get the ball up the field like City's more creative attackers. His xG and xA don't put him ahead of many of his prospective team mates. Those numbers might swing upwards when he trades in a struggling side for a title contender, but would you pick him in an XI ahead of Foden, Cherki and Doku? In the short term there's a case to be made that he plugs a hole while Doku is injured -- he is due back shortly -- and Marmoush is at the Africa Cup of Nations. There's even an argument to be had about the value of swapping him out for Savinho, who is still wanted by Tottenham. It's just that we're talking about a lot of money for a potential depth piece, especially when there are other areas of the pitch (right back, central midfield) that look like they'd benefit from investment ahead of the well-stocked flanks.

Such an assessment could look rather foolish rather soon indeed. There is evidently something that the numbers aren't seeing that an awful lot of elite teams are. If this was the City of five years ago you would simply trust that they knew how to execute their business. Over the last few seasons, though, their transfer execution has been a bit more sketchy. Yes there have been Cherkis and Josko Gvardiols. It's just there have been a few too many Kalvin Phillips, Ilkay Gundogan: The Returns, James Trafford signings before a better goalkeeper arrives a few weeks later, even Savinhos to put your full trust in the current City. 

In spite of muddled recruitment and a somewhat more muddled playing style, City remain firmly in the title race. When they are as close as they are to Arsenal, maybe all they need is a depth piece that delivers in one or two big moments. Semenyo could certainly be that. It is just not entirely clear how much more he could be.