Champions League Matchday 8: Everything to know about top-eight odds, Napoli's chances, PSG-Newcastle, more

It's decision day in the Champions League. Your mileage might vary on the success of the new league phase format but one thing that cannot be denied is that there are plenty of games with actual stakes when 36 become 24 on Wednesday night. With 90 minutes to go just two teams, Bayern Munich and unbeaten Arsenal, have guaranteed themselves a bye to the round of 16. At the other end of the table four clubs -- Eintracht Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal and Kairat Almaty -- have just pride to play for.

There are two big races to watch that are sure to be filled with twists and turns in the final minutes. Some of Europe's biggest names are duking it out for a top eight berth that ensures they miss the knockout playoffs while there are 17 teams whose ongoing status in the Champions League still needs to be confirmed. It is not in the scrap for top 24 or even eighth that we start though but a little higher up the table. 

Champions League Power Rankings: Arsenal, Bayern Munich, PSG unchanged at top with one league phase day left

Francesco Porzio

1. What should the top four be looking out for?

The top two is not quite locked up but it might as well be and in its current order at that. At the Emirates Stadium Arsenal will be bidding to become the first team to go through the league phase 8-0-0 (will that look an impressive feat 15 years from now? It is too early to tell, but fascinating to speculate on) against bottom side Kairat. A point would be enough to lock them into second as would the same result for Bayern Munich away to PSV Eindhoven. Both sides should fancy their chances of winning and winning well.

Behind them are two teams who absolutely cannot take top eight for granted, let alone top four, but who are strong favorites to join the top two. Liverpool round off their league phase at home to Qarabag and while the Azeri champions have been a frisky outfit this season, beating Benfica and drawing at home to Chelsea, they will be heavy underdogs at Anfield. There is probably less between Real Madrid and Jose Mourinho's Benfica but the visitors are favorites to get the job done in Lisbon.

Indeed a 100,000 round simulation provided for CBS Sports by data and finance expert Skanda Amarnath suggests that Madrid have a 60% chance of finishing fourth or higher and a near 50% chance of holding onto third, their sizeable goal difference over Liverpool meaning they are more likely to leapfrog Bayern than drop back to fourth. Arne Slot's side, meanwhile, are given an 86% chance of finishing in the top four.

The relative clarity for the top four, Arsenal and Bayern in particular, doesn't mean there isn't anything for their supporters to get worried about though. It's just that their team won't be the masters of their destiny. The Champions League does not quite follow the sort of seeding structure that might be familiar to US sports' fans -- we love rummaging around in a pot to draw teams on the eastern side of the Atlantic -- but there will be some idea of what to expect. Aside from the guarantee of a home second leg right the way through to the final, the top two are also assured to play a round of 16 tie against a team from pairing four of the knockout play-offs, one that finishes between 15th and 18th in the league phase.

That potentially means skipping the heaviest of hitters, perhaps a Barcelona or Manchester City, both of whom are long shots to slip so far down. A more likely opponent might be Bayer Leverkusen, given a 55% chance of finishing between 15th and 18th and favorites to beat already eliminated Villarreal. Marseille too could be there or thereabouts, primed to leapfrog England-bound Galatasaray and Qarabag. Those two could well drop into pairing three for the knockout phases, facing one of the teams that finish 13th and 14th in the play offs before going on to meet third or fourth. In other words it may not be long before Qarabag and Liverpool face each other again.

If you're one of the top four teams in Europe there shouldn't be much to fear in the upper midtable but there are one or two unpleasant surprises that might lurk around the corner. One of them may well be at the Westfalenstadion where Borussia Dortmund face Inter. It's one of the few games in this final round that looks particularly hard to call, the 100,000 simulations won by Inter by an average margin of 0.1. They really could do with that being larger. A defeat for Cristian Chivu's men is the likeliest route to them slipping into the 15 to 18 bracket. From there you would probably make them favorites against an opponent like Monaco or Bayer Leverkusen but it would be a tough test indeed.

Assume they did get through. Would the best of the best fear Inter? Perhaps not if you are Arsenal, who were able to rotate and still win well in the San Siro last week, but Bayern Munich still bear the scars of last season's dramatic quarterfinal exit at the hands of the Nerazzuri. It would certainly feel like a grim reward for either of the top two to land the 2023 and 2025 finalists so early in the knockout stages. Not of course as unpleasant as it would feel for either Inter or Dortmund to land two of the best teams in Europe. So while a clash between two sides basically locked into the top 24 but out of the top eight should be one of the lowest stakes games of Wednesday it might be as critical as any other. These two need to get out of the path of the Arsenal and Bayern juggernauts.

The top two's likeliest opponents

• Borussia Dortmund (60.6% chance of finishing 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th)
• Bayer Leverkusen (55.3%)
• Marseille (46.8%)
• Inter (36.3%)
• Juventus (36.1%)
• Monaco (23.3%)
• Atalanta (23.2%)
• Sporting (16.7%)
• Athletic Club (16.7%)
• Olympiacos (11.3%)

The likeliest opponents for third and fourth

• Galatasaray (44.9% chance of finishing 13th, 14th, 19th or 20th)
• Newcastle United (38.2%)
• Sporting (35.1%)
• Qarabag (30.7%)
• Chelsea (25.7%)
• Athletic Club (25.3%)
• Olympiacos (21.7%)
• Juventus (20.5%)
• Atalanta (20.1%)

2. Is top eight going down to goal difference?

The nature of last year's winners has prompted some curious conversations about the importance of earning a bye to the round of 16 in the league phase. Paris Saint-Germain didn't need one so really is there much motivation for the late push beyond scrubbing two games off your fixture list? Tell that to Manchester City. A bit of bad luck in the knockout playoff draw and you've found yourself away to Galatasaray or Napoli with no room to manouevre. Even if only to mitigate against some randomness, a top eight berth is incredibly powerful.

Getting it could be the most esoteric of challenges for some of Europe's top coaches. Set aside Tottenham in fifth, whose form of late means they absolutely could drop points to Eintracht Frankfurt and slip into the swamp. The aforementioned Inter and Borussia Dortmund have a hope with a win, a very slim one in the latter's case, while the Juventus side that separates them see results break their way four percent of the time. We're even obliged to acknowledge the possibility of Galatasaray and Qarabag rising up from 17th and 18th, though it's something that happened in 0.00% of our simulations.

The real fun stuff happens between sixth and 13th where only goal difference separates teams on 13 points. At the top PSG on +10 and more goals to their name than Newcastle. At the bottom of that group Atalanta with 10 for and nine against. Between them: Chelsea, Barcelona, Sporting, Manchester City and Atletico Madrid. The best bit? Nearly all of those teams are favorites, some by heavy margins. Assume Real Madrid, Liverpool and Spurs win -- big assumption I know -- and it only takes half of that octet to win for this to come down to goal difference. And you know what that'll mean: desperate attempts to run up the scoreboard at the death and the prospect of pratfalls alongside it.

If it's goal difference that Barcelona need then you'd fancy it is goal difference Barcelona will get at home to Copenhagen though boy would you like to see how Hansi Flick's side defend if they dial up the attack any further. Still they are the model's favorites to get into the prime positions with an 84% chance of finishing eighth or higher.

Manchester City could do with raining down a few goals as well after their loss at Bodo/Glimt. They're also going to have to stop Victor Osimhen from getting joy against a cobbled together, Marc Guehi-less defense. What I'm saying is if you're going to be sat on your couch on Wednesday afternoon, beverage in one hand and 'TV sports' mini flag in another, watch the Golazo show. And if not that, then watch some combination of Barcelona vs. Copenhagen and Manchester City vs. Galatasaray.

If you want to see a straight shootout for top eight though, there's really only one place to look. PSG and Newcastle at the Parc des Princes is the simplest of these games to assess. Win and it is last 16 here we go for either side. A draw would be dicing with danger, ever so slightly more so for the visitors, who would trail the holders on goals scored. Equally, the fact that splitting the points guarantees at least one of the 13 point teams stays below PSG, explaining why their top eight probability is so high and Newcastle's so low in the table above.

A tricky trip away to Athletic Club, fighting to hold on to 23rd place, means Sporting are the top eight side most at risk of slipping out, finishing inside the top eight in just 22% of simulations. Chelsea also have one of those tricky fixtures, more on which later, but it might take something quite special for them to get past Napoli. As for Tottenham, their requirements are clear and their fate is in their own hands. That's probably what's so scary for Spurs fans.

3. What do Napoli need?

Lower down the table, the Champions League drop zone looks rather as you would expect it to. No Manchester City or Paris Saint-Germain on the cusp of crisis last year, just teams who could reasonably lay claim to being the 24th best in the field: your PSVs, Olympiacoses, Bodos and indeed Glimts. What will before too long be termed the Club Brugge Zone is filled with its natural inhabitants. Oh, and Napoli.

This team probably isn't the force that got out in front and held on to the Scudetto last season. It hasn't been that since Khvicha Kvaratskhelia went to PSG. It is still just about a title contender in Italy though, and any Serie A representative should expect to be in the top 24 at least. Antonio Conte's side sit on the brink, however, trailing Olympiacos in the last spot on goals scored, the pressure building ahead of Chelsea's visit to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

The stakes are high. From a financial perspective, a playoff berth might prove to be worth in the region of $30 million extra to Napoli if returns are anything like last season, when Bologna were eliminated in the league phase while AC Milan, Juventus and Atalanta exited in the knockout playoffs. Then there is the reputational damage for Antonio Conte, who has not won a Champions League knockout tie since 2012-13 with Juventus. Lose to his former employers, Chelsea, and he will have more group stage exits than qualifications to his name. His reputation as an elite coach only when he can focus solely on the league might just be cemented. Combine that with his well-earned reputation for combustibility and would Conte be able to find any elite team outside Italy when he and Napoli eventually and inevitably part ways (and losing to Chelsea after losing to Juventus just days before might make that inevitable end come sooner rather than later)?

Let's not get ahead of ourselves though, there is still a game to play. Though Napoli's fate is not entirely in their hands -- there is a weird confluence of results that include Qarabag and PSV winning away that locks the Partenopei out -- a win would almost certainly be enough. The more intriguing question is can they get into the top 24 with a point? Across 100,000 simulations of the final round of games the conclusion was, well, you wouldn't want to rely on it. The numbers say that 64% of the time, it works every time. Those aren't bad odds per se but a 36% chance of elimination before the knockouts is not the sort that Napoli would have expected heading into an eight game stand that CBS Sports ranked the 17th easiest and Opta the 11th.

For the draw to pay off Napoli are going to be reliant on a few games in particular. They'll need to hope that Bayern Munich don't take their foot off the gas at home to PSV. Conte's former employers Juventus beating Monaco would be an almighty solid too, guaranteeing they'd get above at least one team with a point. Even then there'd be nervous glances being shot in the direction of Ajax vs. Olympiacos. A win for the hosts and they leapfrog Napoli. If both Olympiacos and Napoli draw then it would come down to how many goals are scored in this tie.

Razor sharp margins, a ferociously competitive manager and a familiar foe. Even Mount Vesuvius might not be able to conjure up something as combustible as Wednesday night in Naples.

4. What about some real chaos?

So we've established there are going to be some fine margins separating teams in the clutch positions, around eighth and 24th. There is a strong chance that it might come down to goal difference, perhaps even goals scored. That's not what we're after. We want to be firing up the UEFA website in the 89th minute trying to work out what on earth is going to separate, for instance, Sporting and Manchester City. We're rooting for chaos. We're rooting for an away goals tiebreaker (or even better).

It's not entirely out of the realms of possibilities. Across 100,000 simulations, top 24 was decided on a tiebreak beyond goals scored on 1.29% of occasions. Top eight was 1.88%. By way of contrast both events are more likely than Arsenal slipping out of top spot, a 0.76% chance on Amarnath's model. You wouldn't want to work off the assumption that this goes deep into the weeds all that often and any effort to establish who has the further tiebreakers would be a wasted endeavour.

And yet, I have found myself with a free Tuesday evening this week. Next down the list of tiebreakers is away goals scored and there is one team that really, really could do with their fate not being decided in that fashion. Pafos have picked up a couple of precious points away to Olympiacos and Kairat but they are yet to score on their travels. Their final game is at home to Slavia Prague. Realistically the Cypriots are going to have to make it through on goal difference anyway given that they've only scored four times so far but there will be others who maybe, just maybe find themselves in fiddly positions like that.

Suppose that Chelsea win 3-1 in Naples and Manchester City put four past Galatasaray without reply. That would have both tied on 17 goals for, nine against. Both would have scored seven of their tally on their travels. Now is when we get to the juicy stuff, the collective points tally of their group stage opponents. For Chelsea that is currently 80, City's 69. So if things get particularly awkward at the Etihad, it'll be time to root for Leverkusen, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Napoli too, of course.

Is any of this going to be relevant? In all likelihood no but one percent probability events happen. So those of you on team chaos, I'm telling you, yes, there's a chance.

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