The first leg of each Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal match is now complete with the United States squeaking past Jamaica and Mexico dropping their away leg 2-0 to Honduras. Goals were hard to come by as only Honduras scored multiple goals in their clash but that means that the second legs of each fixture will be tense as anyone has a chance to advance but how is it determined who will play who in the semifinals? 

While the schedule is set up as a bracket, teams will actually be reseeded in the next phase of the tournament which is scheduled to take place in March of 2025. Here's how those matchups are decided. The four winners will advance and then they are seeded based on this criteria, which would see the top-seeded team face the fourth-seeded team and the second-seeded team face the third-seeded team.

Ranking criteria

  1. Number of points with three points awarded for a win and one point for a draw.
  2. Goal difference in all quarterfinal matches. After this, it goes to the below tiebreakers.
  3. Goals scored in all away matches.
  4. The lowest number of disciplinary points in all matches as follows: one point for a first yellow, three points for a second yellow, four points for a direct red card, five points for a yellow and a direct red card.
  5. Concacaf rankings

Based on these, Honduras secured a big result, but with every away team scoring one goal but Mexico in the first legs of their matches, this could come down to disciplinary points or Concacaf rankings to make sense of things. Here is how the remaining eight teams currently rank:

  1. Mexico
  2. Canada
  3. United States
  4. Panama
  5. Costa Rica
  6. Jamaica
  7. Honduras
  8. Suriname

USMNT's situation and scenarios

The U.S. will advance with a win or draw. A 1-0 loss would mean extra time while losing by multiple goals would result in elimination, and a one-goal defeat where Jamaica scores multiple goals will see the U.S. go out on away goals. A one-goal loss where Jamaica score multiple goals will see the U.S. crash out on away goals. 

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As for who they could play, if Mexico are eliminated and Canada advance (Mexico are trailing and Canada are up), the USMNT would face either Panama, Costa Rica or Honduras. If Mexico come back, the U.S. would likely face Canada, Panama or Costa Rica, but there's plenty to be decided.

First leg results

  • Jamaica 0, United States 1
  • Costa Rica 0, Panama 1
  • Suriname 0, Canada 1
  • Honduras 2, Mexico 0

Second leg schedule

Monday, Nov. 18
United States vs. Jamaica, 8 p.m. ET (TNT and Fubo)
Panama vs. Costa Rica,  9 p.m. ET (Paramount+)

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Tuesday, Nov. 19
Canada vs. Suriname, 7:30 p.m. ET (Paramount+)
Mexico vs. Honduras, 9:30 p.m. ET (Paramount+)