Corner Picks: Best bets, soccer predictions, odds for Lecce vs. Juventus, Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest, more

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Oct 28, 2022 at 1:12 pm ET • 3 min read

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Do you realize the World Cup starts in three weeks? I did not. I don't know what has been going on in my brain, but even though I knew the World Cup started in November this year and leagues across the world were cramming as many matches as possible into the fall months because of it, I'm still caught off guard.

I got lost in a wonderful world of soccer being on every afternoon, and time ceased to exist. But now I'm here. Maybe it'd be better if I wasn't because last week's 1-3 performance in the column wouldn't bother me as much as it is. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Lecce vs. Juventus

Date: Saturday, Oct. 29 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

I'm a glutton for punishment because I keep betting on Juventus even though they're a mess. But the reason I keep doing it is that I'm winning! The narrative surrounding the club right now does not paint a pretty picture. Still, just because Juventus being in eighth place in Serie A and not advancing in the Champions League is a disaster for Juventus, it doesn't mean Juventus aren't better than most of the teams they're facing at home.

But the market has responded more to the larger narrative than it should. There are some concerns here because Juve have been better at home, but the defensive problems that doomed this team early in the season have improved. They're still a problem against stronger teams with dangerous attacks, but that's not the case this weekend against a Lecce side that has scored only nine goals this season (only Sampdoria have scored fewer in Serie A). The Pick: Juventus (-113)

Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest

Date: Sunday, Oct. 30 | Time: 10 a.m. ET | Watch: USA | Live stream: fuboTV (try for free)

Arsenal Overs have been a consistent source of cash this season, but the total for this match is at 3.5, and that's a little too high. Nottingham have scored seven goals in six home matches but only once in six road matches, making it difficult to trust them to carry their share of the load. Instead, I'll bet on Arsenal hitting its team total over and eliminating Forest from the process altogether.

Arsenal are a far more competent Nottingham Forest regarding home/away splits. They're averaging 1.83 goals per match on the road in the Premier League, but that average leaps to 2.8 goals per match at home. Forest beat Liverpool 1-0 last week, but looking at the expected goals Liverpool racked up suggests how lucky Forest were to get the result. You don't need the numbers to tell you if you watched the match. The Pick: Arsenal Over 2.5 (-110)

Livingston vs. Celtic

Date: Sunday, Oct. 30 | Time: 8 a.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

You won't catch me including much Scottish Premiership in the column, but the value on this match, combined with the lack of value elsewhere this weekend, makes it a no-brainer this week. If you aren't familiar with the Scottish Premiership, it's run by two clubs: Celtic and Rangers. Everybody else just exists. Lately, the league has been dominated by Celtic. While Rangers won it in the 2020-21 season, Celtic have won the league 10 of the last 11 seasons and looks primed to make it 11 of 12.

Celtic have scored 39 goals in their 11 league matches, 12 more than anybody else in the league. Last week they beat Hearts 4-3. The week before, it was Hibernian 6-1. Celtic have had as many league matches finish with at least seven goals scored (three) as they have with fewer than three. The average Celtic match sees 4.36 goals. Livingston have been one of the better defensive teams in the league, but that won't matter against Celtic. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-150)