On Nov. 11, Bournemouth pulled what might have, at the time, been the most shocking result of the Premier League season when they hosted Newcastle and defeated them comprehensively, 2-0. It was not a close match. Bournemouth outshot their opponent (19-8) and won the expected goal battle (2.46 to 0.49), so the two goals from Dominic Solanke in the 60th and 73rd minute represented a fair reflection of the balance of play. Bournemouth roundly outplayed Newcastle, a fact which was utterly unexpected.
At the time, Bournemouth were 17th in the table with six points and Newcastle were sixth with 20, but if anything, that undersells just how wide the gulf between those two teams were 11 matches into the season. Looking at expected goals, Newcastle were the third-best team in the Premier League at that point with 12.17 xG difference, Bournemouth were the second-worse at -12.33.
That's almost 25 goals worth of quality between the two sides, yet Bournemouth swept aside their opponents with relative ease. Much has been made about Newcastle's swift collapse in form after that moment, but less attention has been paid to Bournemouth's stunning rise. But over eight Premier League matches starting with that win, Bournemouth are averaging 2.4 points per match, the best total in the Premier League.
And it's not a fluke either. Their xG difference is 1.0, just a whisker behind Liverpool and Arsenal at 1.1 over that span. Forget what they were before, Bournemouth are now playing like one of -- if not the -- best teams in England. Their improved form has seen the Cherries shoot up the table, and at the halfway point of their season they now sit in 12th place, only six points outside of a possible spot in a European competition.
All of that leaves one question. What the heck happened at Bournemouth?
Three crucial Bournemouth moments
To understand the moment of Bournemouth's unlikely rise, it's important to look at it as the culmination of two major decisions that came before it. Bournemouth returned to the Premier League at the beginning of the 2022-23 season under the leadership of Scott Parker. He lasted all of four games into the team's first time back in the top flight before it became clear he wasn't getting the job done. His team scored twice and conceded a whopping 16 times in four matches, resulting in him getting shown the door in favor of Gary O'Neil. And that's where things got interesting.
- Moment 1: Bill Foley buys Bournemouth
American investor Bill Foley completed his purchase of the club on Dec. 13, 2022. Bournemouth, at the time cruising along under O'Neil, were in 14th, uncomfortably sitting above the relegation zone. They were only three points ahead of the drop, and perhaps most worryingly was that their underlying numbers were dire. Possibly still dragged down by their early-season performance under Scott Parker, Bournemouth's expected goal difference of -12.66 was the worst in the league, which suggested that 14th place looked like more of a ceiling than a floor up to that point.
Speaking with Morning Footy on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, Foley explained what his vision for the club is. It's a lot grander than surviving Premier League relegation.
"We're really trying to create a modest multi-club model, where we can start players in Auckland at Auckland FC, bring them to Hibbs in Scotland, maybe they go to Lorient, maybe we have a Belgian team, where we progress them through that system and eventually they get the playing time, and then they come to Bournemouth and then we have an experienced 22-year-old that's ready to play Premier League football. We're excited about our plans. Obviously we're not a sovereign wealth club, we don't have those kind of resources, so we've got to do it smarter."
That's an ambitious goal, and it's not particularly consistent with a team playing, on average, the worst soccer in the Premier League. And that leads us to our second notable moment.
- Moment 2: Replacing Gary O'Neil with Andoni Iraola
Perhaps the most controversial decision of Foley's ownership was moving on from the man who replaced Parker and kept Bournemouth in the Premier League in O'Neil. Bournemouth finished the season 15th, but they really did show growth over the second half of the season. Their underlying numbers improved from the point where Foley came in. While they did finish the season dead last in xG difference at -25.77, that was heavily influenced by penalties, which generally speaking obscure more than they illuminate. When stripping out penalties, they were 17th at -20.25.
And, if you look at only O'Neil's time in charge, stripping out those horrendous games under Parker, Bournemouth were a more respectable -14.54 in xG difference, the 14th-best team in the league. There were real strong arguments for keeping O'Neil, given the job he did. Still, Foley maintained that the decision to change course wasn't a hard one.
"It wasn't that difficult for me once we found Andoni Iraola and he was available because he plays a different style of football -- high energy, high on the pitch, attacking football. We were a counterattacking team and I felt that if we were going to have a chance to really swing above our weight and be competitive with some of the larger teams, we had to play a different style of football," Foley said on Morning Footy.
"It was a difficult decision because we all like Gary O'Neil -- and by the way, he's doing well with Wolves right now, they're successful. I knew that he would be successful and keep us up, I just didn't feel like he was going to be able to play the style of football I thought we needed to play to really be entertaining and to move up the table. It's really that simple. Nothing against Gary -- he's a quality guy, he's a quality coach -- we just wanted a different style of football."
It's worth noting, Wolverhampton are currently in 11th place, three points ahead of Bournemouth, but with one more game played.
- Moment 3: It all clicks for Iraola
For 11 games, it seemed like Foley couldn't have been more wrong. By any metric, Bournemouth were worse for that stretch than they had been under O'Neil. Whether it's results or expected goals, or whatever else you want to look at, Bournemouth had regressed to a relegation level team, saved only by just how bad the three recently promoted teams had been below them, leaving them tied on points with Luton Town with only Burnley and Sheffield United below them. But then came the Newcastle game and everything changed.
The first thing to emphasize is that this change is real, not some fluke of luck brought on by a handful of insane goals, or terrible opponent finishing. Bournemouth are creating more and better chances, and conceding fewer and worse ones. Their increase in goals per match from the first 11 to last eight matches of 0.8 to 2.4 has been accompanied by an increase in xG from 1.1 to 2.0 and an increase in shots from 10.8 to 17. And on the defensive side of the ball, their goals conceded per game has dropped from 1.4 to 0.4, accompanied by a cratering xG conceded, which went from 1.3 to 0.4 and shots conceded from almost 18 to just over 10.
| Stats (per match) | First 11 EPL matches | Last eight EPL matches |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| xG | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Shots | 10.8 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| xG conceded | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Shots conceded | 18 | 10 |
Break the numbers down and you can see a real evolution as Iraola's plan with this team comes into focus. For 11 games, there wasn't much in the way of possession that was different between Iraola and his predecessor. O'Neil's side played 370 passes per game at a 78% completion rate, Iraola's played 370 passes per game at a 79% completion rate. But as the team improved, so did their possession, ticking up to over 397 passes per match over the last eight games while maintaining 78%.
Here's the fascinating wrinkle, though. While Bournemouth's possession has increased, so has the percentage of their passes that they are willing to play long. It's gone up from 36% over those terrible first 11 games to 46% over the last eight. It was 43% under O'Neil. Bournemouth are succeeding by playing, and completing, a lot more long passes. In fact, while the number of passes they're playing has increased, the number of passes they're playing in their own half has actually gone down from 183 to 178, while the passes they're playing in the opposition half has skyrocketed from 187 to 220.
Put that all together and it paints a picture of a manager successfully implementing and then adjusting his style to play in the Premier League. Iraola came into the job emphasizing the possession game. Bournemouth played more passes and played fewer long balls than they had under his predecessor. But they didn't really become successful until they married that passing game with a commitment to move the ball into opposition territory quickly. Once that piece fell into place, they began to soar.
| Last eight Premier League games | ||
|---|---|---|
Nov. 11 | vs. Newcastle | 2-0 win |
Nov. 25 | at Sheffield United | 3-1 win |
Dec. 3 | vs. Aston Villa | 2-2 draw |
Dec. 6 | at Crystal Palace | 2-0 win |
Dec. 9 | at Man United | 3-0 win |
Dec. 23 | at Nottingham Forest | 3-2 win |
Dec. 26 | vs. Fulham | 3-0 win |
Dec. 31 | at Tottenham | 3-1 loss |
Now they move the ball up the field quickly and directly, but with a high degree of success, before maintaining possession in the opposition half and breaking down opposing teams. It's a subtle change, but one that is obviously paying huge dividends.
It took a few months, but Foley's faith in Iraola is paying huge dividends.
What next for Bournemouth?
You're never as good as you look when you win or as bad as you look when you lose. And it's hard to believe -- despite this hot streak -- that Bournemouth are going to sustainably be one of the best two or three teams in the Premier League. Some of the improvement has been aided by a schedule that included Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and then became much more favorable over the last two months.
That said, it's clear that for now, at least, Bournemouth are closer to competing for a spot in Europe than worrying about relegation. In the same interview, Foley pledged there'd be no outgoing transfers this January and teased a new incoming signing from South America (though the player could immediately be loaned out for further development). And United States men's national team mainstay Tyler Adams is due to return from injury as well. Foley revealed on Morning Footy that Adams is on the mend from a second hamstring surgery and could return to action as soon as the end of February or the beginning or March. From a talent standpoint, Bournemouth seem likely to end the season even stronger than they began it.
Then there's the matter of a new stadium and facilities. Foley has big plans there too.
"It'll be about 18,500 seats. It'll have the normal Premier League percentage of hospitality. Roughly 16-17% of the stadium will be hospitality related. Right now, we're at about 6%, so we don't have the facilities to really do what we need to do to entertain our fans.
"It's going to be built in such a way that we can add another deck on the south side and add another three to four thousand seats -- and so if the demand is there, we'll certainly do that and it won't be disruptive. This stadium will be built directly behind Vitality [Stadium], which is where the training facility is today.
"We had to move our training facility to make way for the new stadium. And we're excited about it. It's going to change Bournemouth. We'll always respect the fans of Bournemouth and their traditions, but we do need to move forward, and we need different facilities."
"We've gotten underway in our training facility. Bournemouth had inadequate infrastructure so we're spending £35 million [$44.5 million] on a first team, women's team and academy team building and pitches. We've completed the indoor pitch which should be open by next October. And now that will give us time to start planning and getting underway on a new stadium. If we get all that done and built, I'll feel really good about where we're at in Bournemouth."
It's heady times for the Cherries, and if things continue like this, the best is still yet to come.