How Serie A's top teams could win the title, or crash out: Inter, Milan, Napoli, Juventus, Roma in tight race

The Serie A title race is entering its crucial phase as Inter, AC Milan and possibly three other teams will be involved in the Scudetto's contention until the very end of the 2025-26 season. Over the past years, such as the 2024-25 season when Napoli won it on the last matchday, the Serie A title race was by far one of the most entertaining around Europe with more teams fighting for the championship until the very end. This season, things look again uncertain with the Nerazzurri currently leading the standings with a three-point margin on the city rivals while Napoli, Juventus and AS Roma are currently slightly behind, but also with a margin to make a comeback in the second part of the season. Let's now take a look at the best and worst case scenario for each of the top five teams and the reasons why they can win the title or not even make top four.  

1. Inter -- 46 points 

Why they will win: The Nerazzurri showed themselves to be the best team in the league in the first part of the season, despite losing four matches, and it also showed the great work done by the new coach, Cristian Chivu. The former Parma head coach managed to restore the right mentality within the squad after the disappointing end to the 2024–25 season, when the Nerazzurri lost the Scudetto in the closing rounds and then suffered a 5–0 defeat to PSG in the Champions League final. That collapse led to the departure of Simone Inzaghi, who joined Al-Hilal in the summer. Chivu has proven to be the right man in the right place, rotating his players more effectively and integrating new faces, including Italian youngster Francesco Pio Esposito.

Why they'll crash out: Inter struggled against the top teams this season as they have failed to win against Napoli (one draw and one defeat), AC Milan and Juventus. This is something they desperately need to improve in the second half of the season if they want to win the Scudetto, especially with several crucial Champions League fixtures coming up that could cause them to drop points along the way. With only a three-point lead over their rivals, and seven points to fifth, this could prove to be a decisive factor.

2. AC Milan -- 43 points

Why they will win: Massimiliano Allegri was the right choice for the club and he proved it already. As the key weeks approach, AC Milan are where they need to be to hope winning the title. Inter are stronger and they have a better roster but the Rossoneri can hope to see their city rivals lose some points with the return of Champions League action next week and this is why they have a chance at least. On top of tbat, USMNT striker Christian Pulisic is currently having one of the best seasons of his career, with ten goals scored between the Serie A and the Coppa Italia. 

Why they won't win: The new AC Milan cycle under Allegri just started and it looks like there is much more work to do to see them at their best. Also, injuries are not helping them as they were barely able to play with both Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao in the starting lineup so far and overall Inter and Napoli have better players on their rosters. 

3. Napoli -- 40 points

Why they will win: Antonio Conte has done an incredible job since he took over at Napoli in the summer 2024 and was able to win the title in his first year in charge at the club. His players immediately understood his mentality and were able to express his football ideas on the pitch, and the club also helped him to improve the roster ahead of the 2025-26 season with some notable transfers who have made an immediate impact such Kevin de Bruyne and Rasmus Hojlund. 

Why they won't win: Injuries are deeply affecting the performances of the Azzurri as Conte had to face some notable absences so far, including new signings de Bruyne and club star Romelu Lukaku. Napoli are also competing in the Champions League this season, and playing every three days has made it difficult for Conte to rotate his squad, especially with several players injured. This helps explain why they are slightly behind in the standings, but they have consistently shown themselves to be a tough opponent against the top teams.

4. Juventus -- 39 points

Why they will win: Since the Italian giants appointed Luciano Spalletti in October who replaced Igor Tudor on the bench, the Bianconeri have another face and character. Juventus have the potential to make some noise and possibly compete with the rivals despite the gap in the standings. They probably should have hired Spalletti earlier.

Why they won't win: They are not on the same level as their rivals, partly because several players are likely to leave in the summer if Spalletti remains in charge. In addition, a key figure like Dusan Vlahovic who had started the season well despite his contract expiring in the summer of 2026 is currently injured and not expected to return in the short term.

5. AS Roma -- 39 points

Why they will win: The Giallorossi began a new project under Gian Piero Gasperini in the summer, and it's off to a strong start. The team quickly grasped the coach's ideas, and the development process is likely progressing faster than expected. At the same time, they are the only Italian side so far to make notable moves in the current winter transfer window, signing Robinio Vaz from OM and Donyell Malen from Aston Villa.

Why they won't win: It's still too early to see them competing with the top teams. Gasperini needs more time, but that was always to be expected, and his first season at AS Roma is going very well, arguably even beyond initial expectations.