With six UEFA Champions League games played as 2024 comes to a close, the picture is becoming clearer in the league phase as we head towards the seventh and eighth rounds of play in early 2025. Liverpool are the only team to have won all six of their games for a total of 18 points which places them three clear of Barcelona and literally in the waiting room for a top eight finish. Although 10 points is expected to be enough for a top 24 finish and therefore a UCL knockout berth, there is no guarantee because the seven teams capable of reaching or bettering the 10-point barrier are all still within reach with a game to spare. With that in mind, the revised figure is likely to be 11 which creates some superb scenarios for us to look forward to in the new year. As this is a brand new format which is playing out for the very first time right now, there are likely to be further twists and turns but the two undoubted teams advancing right now are Liverpool and Barcelona with only RB Leipzig, Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava certain to go home.
We take a closer look as the two remaining games edge closer over the Christmas period.
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Qualified teams
Liverpool and Barcelona: The Premier League-leading Merseysiders are one of only two teams to be guaranteed of at least a playoff spot although they are almost guaranteed an automatic round of 16 berth through a top-eight finish. With Lille (home) and PSV Eindhoven (away) to come and already six points clear of ninth place, it is hard to see Slot's side not marching on automatically. The more pertinent question might be whether or not the Reds end up winning all of their games -- or at least remaining unbeaten -- given that they are already on six wins from six with their harder fixtures already played out.
Eliminated teams
Leipzig, Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava: Few expected the Germans to perform as poorly as they have done so far this season with matters likely to be made worse for Red Bull by the fact that Salzburg are also expected to miss the cut having also experienced a woeful run of continental form. Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava are less surprising but have equally struggled to compete with the current eliminated trio all pointless with two games left to at least save some pride.
Surprise performers
Aston Villa, Brest and Lille: The current top eight was not expected to feature the Premier League outfit and two Ligue 1 sides yet Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen and Inter currently share the direct passages to the round of 16 with the surprise trio. Of those three, although Lille OSC have notched some excellent results, it is hard to argue against Stade Brestois 29 being the biggest shock name in this position considering that this is their first-ever European foray. Villa's turnaround under Unai Emery have been impressive but as an EPL side, the money to compete at this level is hard -- if not impossible -- for French clubs to obtain which makes Brest and LOSC the true overachievers.
Surprise strugglers
Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain having a basement battle in the penultimate round of games when they meet in the French capital is something that few people would have dared to predict at the start of the league phase. Yet here we are after six games with both sides struggling either side of the elimination cut-off point with Luis Enrique's men chasing Pep Guardiola's side at present. Ligue 1 is currently being buoyed by Monaco, Brest and Lille and Paris dropping out so prematurely would be an enormous blow to France's UEFA coefficient performance which has been respectable up until this point. The early evidence, though, is that UEFA's format shakeup is actually making things interesting and the final two games will be extremely high stakes for the likes of Les Parisiens. A case can be made for Real Madrid only having nine points so far but that situation looks to be in the process of being turned around while Bayern Munich might have been expected to occupy a top eight spot instead of their current 10th place just outside the reckoning.
Coefficient storylines so far
- Extra UCL berth 1: England - 13.642 points - 7/7 clubs
- Extra UCL berth 2: Italy - 12.109 points - 8/8 clubs
- Currently in third: Portugal - 11.755 points - 5/5 clubs
England leads the chase for an additional Champions League berth for next season through its strong collective Premier League showings and the bigger question is who will be joining them instead of who could catch them. Italy's Serie A sides could capture a second extra UCL spot in as many seasons given that the Italians are currently closest to keeping pace with the English sides. However, Portugal should not totally be ruled out down in third although the margin is widening. As far the top five coefficient places, France's Ligue 1 is holding off the Netherlands' Eredivisie which was a developing story last year and Italy's Serie A remains behind England's EPL with Spain third and Germany fourth but trying to bridge the gap between La Liga and the Bundesliga.
Key 7th round games
All 3 p.m. ET
- Tuesday, Jan. 21: Liverpool vs. Lille and Atletico Madrid vs. Bayer Leverkusen.
- Wednesday, Jan. 22: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Manchester City and Feyenoord vs. Bayern Munich.
Although Liverpool vs. Lille, Atletico Madrid vs. Bayer Leverkusen, Feyenoord vs. Bayern Munich and even Monaco vs. Aston Villa all deserve a mention, it is impossible to look past PSG vs. City in the seventh round of fixtures A bit game at the best of times, this one takes on mammoth proportions given the higher stakes than usual and the very real potential consequences of a loss on both sides coming into that Parc des Princes matchup.
Standings
Key: Positions 1-8 qualify for Round of 16 while positions 9-24 qualify for Knockout Phase Play-Offs and positions 25-36 are eliminated.
| PosPosition | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 15 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 13 |
| 6 | Inter | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 13 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 8 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 12 |
| 10 | Bayern Munich | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 12 |
| 11 | Atletico Madrid | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 12 |
| 12 | AC Milan | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 12 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 11 |
| 14 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 11 |
| 15 | Benfica | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 16 | Monaco | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 10 |
| 17 | Sporting CP | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 18 | Feyenoord | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | Club Brugge | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Real Madrid | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 |
| 21 | Celtic | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 22 | Manchester City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 8 |
| 23 | PSV | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 8 |
| 24 | Dinamo Zagreb | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 25 | PSG | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 26 | Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 27 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| 28 | Sparta Praha | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |
| 29 | SK Sturm Graz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 | Girona | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 31 | Red Star Belgrade | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 3 |
| 32 | RB Salzburg | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 3 |
| 33 | Bologna | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 2 |
| 34 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 0 |
| 36 | Young Boys | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 22 | -19 | 0 |
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