We are six games deep into UEFA Champions League action as the league phase has two more rounds of games remaining before the knockout phase. The field is still largely open, although teams have started to book their places in the latter rounds, with no team absolutely 100% certain of a round of 16 spot just yet. Leaders Liverpool are the most likely with a knockout place already assured but they have not yet locked up more than playoff access despite having an edge on everyone else. Barcelona are also giving chase but right now there are more eliminated teams than qualified ones.
We take a look at the state of play as we await the return of Champions League action for the final two rounds in January.
UCL top-eight
- Confirmed: None yet.
Liverpool are already guaranteed a top 24 finish which is at least a playoff spot but Arne Slot's Premier League and Champions League leaders should now become the first team to confirm their presence in the round of 16 in early 2025. The Reds can confirm that status with one more point from games against Lille OSC and PSV Eindhoven and it is difficult to see the Merseysiders throwing things away over those last two games. If anything, they are more likely to finish the league phase with eight wins from eight games given their impressive 100% winning record so far.
UCL playoffs (top 24)
- Confirmed: Liverpool and Barcelona.
Barcelona sit just below Liverpool with five wins from six having lost their opening game and the Catalan giants are currently the most likely candidates to either pip the Reds to top spot or immediately follow them into the round of 16. For now, both have at least guaranteed a knockout phase appearance although Arne Slot's side are more likely to go straight to the round of 16 given their three-point lead over Barca. Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Inter, Stade Brestois 29 and Lille OSC also make up the top eight with two games to go although none of those sides are yet to be in a position to have officially reached the knockouts despite it looking likely for most of them -- if not all. It would take a big swing of results to change that, but Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Milan are breathing down their necks on 12 points with Atalanta and Juventus on 11.
Halfway house
Neither advanced nor eliminated, a handful of sides are as close to the top eight as they are the elimination places with Benfica, Monaco, Sporting, Feyenoord and Club Brugge all on 10 points which means that their next win or loss could have massive ramifications. Real Madrid and Celtic perhaps sneak into that conversation given that they are only one point shy of the same tally but the other big names below the Scottish giants have major work to do.
At risk
That now includes Manchester City, PSV Eindhoven, Dinamo Zagreb, Paris Saint-Germain and VfB Stuttgart who are all hovering around the cut-off point with two games left. Fascinatingly, the French giants face both the Premier League and Bundesliga outfits in their two final games which arguably holds the cards to this year's big name stumbling early on. Both PSG and City could yet avoid it but both will be desperate to avoid waiting for the final day when they can likely assure themselves of their knockout place with a win in the penultimate round of games when they meet at Parc des Princes.
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Unlikely to make it
Those teams who can mathematically still make the knockouts but need a minimum of four points from their two remaining games include Shakhtar Donetsk, Sparta Praha, Sturm Graz, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Red Bull Salzburg and Bologna. Many of these sides are just waiting to finally be confirmed as out of the running despite some having made encouraging starts. However, at least for now, they are not 100% guaranteed to not make the knockout phase and that is further evidence of the value that the adoption of this new league phase has brought with it.
Eliminated
- Confirmed: RB Leipzig, Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava.
Red Bull's flagship side Leipzig was the first to fall this edition which was a surprise as Aston Villa confirmed their exit with a home loss in the sixth round of games. Salzburg are expected to follow shortly although Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava were the next two after the Germans. All three of those eliminated sides are on zero points with Bologna the next to likely drop out given that they are on two points which means that they can only tally eight by the end of league phase play which is still two short of the estimated 10-point barrier to reach the knockouts. Although it mathematically adds up right now, it is unlikely to remain the case for the Italians who you can argue do not have their fate in their own hands even if they were to win both of their remaining games.