One regular day of World Cup, that's all we ask for. Will never happen. Yes, once again, football's most unpredictable competition delivered the goods and boy is it poised to do so again. You thought Norway knocking Brazil out of the World Cup, extending international football's most remarkable unbeaten run, was dramatic? Well pow, here comes five goals, two of them penalties, 11 minutes added time and a red card from Mexico 2, England 3, in any other year the nailed on game of the tournament, round these parts just a Sunday.
And all of that was somehow put in the shade by events off the field, where FIFA has suspended the one game suspension of Folarin Balogun, red carded against Bosnia & Herzegovina but now free to face Belgium in what is surely the biggest game in USMNT history. Let's dive into that, shall we?
Is Balogun really worth all this fuss?
It is hard to shake the sense that something remarkable will have to happen over the course of Folarin Balogun's career for his name to not be immediately associated with the "unprecedented, incomprehensible and unjustifiable" (as European governing body UEFA put it) decision to put his suspension on ice. CBS News reported Sunday night that President Trump made a call to FIFA president Gianni Infantino following the red card, as the U.S. sought to mount a campaign to overturn the decision.
The decision, for which FIFA has not provided a justification and which is subject to an appeal by the Belgian federation, has already proven deeply contentious within the world of football. Infantino's predecessor Sepp Blatter warned "football must never become a playground for political power." England coach Thomas Tuchel joked that Harry Kane should ask President Trump if he could overturn the red card Jarrel Quansah got in the Mexico win.
As of Monday morning -- and Belgium's appeal makes this a fast-moving situation -- Balogun is available to play. One supposes he will. The pressure to prove he was worth all this will be immense. Is he? In three seasons at Monaco, the 25-year-old has scored 24 goals in Ligue 1, the 14th highest goal tally in the French top flight during that time period. He ranks 19th in the division for non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90, 20 when you combine that return with expected assists.
Last season was certainly Balogun's best since his $35 million move from Arsenal to the principality club with 13 goals in the league and five in the Champions League, establishing himself as the preferred starter under Sebastien Pocognoli after very nearly losing his place to Mika Bierith. Balogun delivered goals but perhaps not a lot more, that green bar of assists still encompassing just four times he has provided for a teammate. Balogun has delivered high-level output in front of goal and generally around average for a striker in every other category.
Taken on the whole, Balogun has the look of a good but not necessarily great striker in Ligue 1, the fifth best of Europe's top five leagues. Comparable forwards across the big leagues might be Lois Openda, who did not make the Belgium squad, Italy's Moise Kean or Richarlison who did not make the Brazil team.
Perhaps when he dons the stars and stripes Balogun is a different player. Thirty caps have delivered 12 goals, including three so far at the World Cup. It is probably worth noting at this juncture that even in the tiny sample size of three games, one of them brought to a premature conclusion, Balogun's 0.5 xG is still on a par with what he delivers at club level. Perhaps that is because the opponents he has been facing -- Bosnia, Australia and Paraguay -- are the international football equivalent of the Ligue 1 outfits he has faced for most of his senior career. Good teams, unquestionably, but not the sort that should have you radically altering your view of him just because he got three goals.
His teammates would argue there is more that he can offer than just goals. After the ban was overturned, Alex Freeman highlighted the "physicality" and "hold up play" of Balogun. "He brings a lot of space, a lot of power," he added. He presses a lot too. According to Gradient Sports, he averages 37.1 pressures per 90 minutes. Among probable starters against Belgium only Malik Tillman averages more. Having a forward who works off the ball is crucial to Mauricio Pochettino's energetic system. So is a focal point forward and ultimately what Balogun offers is in the area, where he is averaging 9.2 penalty box touches per 90 minutes at the World Cup, sixth among all players at the tournament.
It is just that, again, that sample size has been built against opposition that are nothing like those who the USMNT might face if they go further. Belgium are at or around the U.S. level, rather than considerably below it. Perhaps Balogun is worth all this fuss because he is sufficiently better than Ricardo Pepi, Haji Wright or a redeployed player from elsewhere, such that he takes this team from fringe underdogs to slight favorites. Further on in this competition, Balogun's presence might be negligible. He would not change the stakes against Spain, Portugal or France. The talent disparity is too great in favor of USMNT's opponents. Belgium, however, have looked defensively vulnerable and have a backline that might buckle under pressure orchestrated by the USMNT's No.9.
If this were a question of playing Balogun through injury for this game, the answer would probably be that the US should. Good but not great Ligue 1 strikers are useful for a team at their level. Instead the questions that are being asked are whether FIFA placed its thumb on the scales of the tournament at the behest of President Trump, putting "the integrity of the game at stake" (again UEFA's words) to bequeath to Pochettino a quite good center forward. That is certainly how the rest of the world are viewing this act, one which puts incalculable pressure on Balogun to be the difference-maker in possibly the biggest match in USMNT history.
