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The 2026 Australian Open men's semifinals begin at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday night, as Carlos Alcaraz faces Alexander Zverev. Alcaraz had never gone beyond the quarterfinals in four previous visits, but he has reached the semifinals without dropping a set. He had won 36 of his last 37 Grand Slam sets, and he is a -700 favorite against Zverev on Thursday night. SportsLine tennis expert Jose Onorato is taking the Over (35.5) for that match, and he has also revealed an Australian Open best bet for Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner.    

Sinner is the defending champion while Djokovic is a 10-time winner, setting up a blockbuster showdown at 3:30 a.m. ET on Friday morning. Before locking in your Australian Open picks for the first Grand Slam of the season, be sure to check out the top tennis betting picks from Onorato.

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Onorato has gone 168-106-8 (+107.12 units) on his best bets since 2022. He correctly called Jannik Sinner in the 2025 Australian Open (+160), Carlos Alcaraz (+130) in the 2025 French Open and Sinner again at 2025 Wimbledon (+180). He also called Coco Gauff (+700) in the 2025 French Open and Iga Swiatek (+1200) at 2025 Wimbledon. Anybody following his tennis betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

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Australian Open men's semifinal best bets:

  • Over 35.5 games in Alcaraz vs. Zverev (-122) 
  • Sinner -2.5 sets vs. Djokovic (-130) 

Over 35.5 games in Alcaraz vs. Zverev (-122)

"Alcaraz has looked a level above most of the field this fortnight, but Zverev's serve and experience should keep him competitive for long stretches," Onorato said. "Carlos' speed and ability to flip defense into offense make him the more dangerous player overall, yet Zverev's ability to protect serve and hang early in sets raises the floor of this match. Long service games, a potential tiebreak, or a four-set battle all come into play here. Even if Alcaraz is the one pulling away late, Zverev can do enough early to push this total past the number."

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Sinner -2.5 sets vs. Djokovic (-130)

"Sinner has completely taken control of this rivalry, winning the last five meetings and doing so convincingly, including three straight-set wins," Onorato said. "His level in Melbourne has once again been flawless. He is the two-time defending champion, riding a 20-match winning streak at the Australian Open, and has not dropped a set in this tournament. Sinner has dictated from the baseline with depth and pace, consistently taking time away from opponents and forcing errors early in rallies. 

"Djokovic, on the other hand, has not looked like the same physical force we are used to seeing in Melbourne. His path to the semifinals was helped by Musetti's retirement, and even before that his movement and consistency showed cracks, especially in longer exchanges. Against Sinner, those margins matter. Sinner's improved serve, elite returning, and ability to absorb and redirect pace neutralize Djokovic's strengths and push him into defensive positions. Unless Djokovic finds a level we have not yet seen, this matchup strongly favors Sinner controlling the match from the start."

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Want more Australian Open picks?

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